Ramblings: Thoughts on Hughes, Petersen, Sandin, Marner’s streak and more … (Dec. 07)

Dobber

2022-12-07

Apologies for the late Ramblings. There was a miscommunication about coverage, so Alex and Dobber double-teamed them to get them out quick.

ALEX MACLEAN

A lot of the teams that don't play the Devils often seem to get surprised by how much they are attacking the middle of the ice this year, and how easily they seem to manage it. It doesn't hurt that Jack Hughes can do it all himself some nights.

Hughes is up to 31 points in 26 games after starting the season with only three in six. That's 28 points in his last 20 games, which would be a 115-point pace. I said before the season that he was going to hit 100 points if he's healthy all year, and I'm even more confident about it now. Unlike Johnny Gaudreau and Jonathan Huberdeau and their 115-point marks last season, Hughes is a lot more likely to keep this pace up year after year.

Dougie Hamilton also enjoyed playing the Blackhawks, adding two assists to that goal above. He's up to 19 points in 26 games, and back to his 60-point pace from the last few years before he joined the Devils and dealt with adjustments and injuries last season. Hopefully you bought low because that window is firmly shut now. Hamilton was our consensus pick for bounce-back player of the year in the DobberHockey Panel, so you can't say you weren't warned.

One last point for the Devils, it's worth noting that Dawson Mercer is up on the top power play unit. He's pacing for 47 points at the moment, but if that sticks all year he should be able to walk backwards to 55 points on this team.

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On the other side of the ice, the entire Blackhawks team got shut out, and that includes Patrick Kane and his seven shots last night – a season high for him. Relying on him, Max Domi, and Jonathan Toews to lead the team has led to some very streaky offense. It's also very likely at this point that all three are dealt before the deadline. The Hawks have given Kane and Toews no reason to stay, while Domi is also a UFA with no trade protection. A trade would help the values of Kane and Toews, but I'm not sure it would do much for Domi, as he would lose his high ice-time numbers, and would be unlikely to be paired with a linemate as talented as Kane.

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I mentioned Johnny Gaudreau above, and that prompted me to check in on his scoring as well. He has settled in at a 92-point pace as we approach the one-third mark of the season, and that's around where a lot of us expected him to settle. He has been hot of late though, with nine points in his last five games, and was projected for 102 points in the Guide, so the 90-point pace may look like his floor the rest of the way, especially with Patrik Laine back in the lineup.

Speaking of heating up, the Jackets lost last night's game thanks to two-point nights from Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and Bryan Rust. Crosby and Guentzel are continuing on their hot streaks, while Bryan Rust looks to be finally shaking himself off with six points in his last two games. It still hasn't made up for his extremely slow start, but he's now pacing for 50-points instead of the 40 he was on track for a week ago. Expect the final tally to finish closer to 60 by the end of the season.

Two Blue Jackets also made their career debuts in the game, with Tim Berni playing 13 minutes on defense, and Kirill Marchenko playing 10 minutes up front. Marchenko is the fantasy relevant one of the two, with possible 70-point upside if everything spills right. He saw some time with both power play units last night, but as was the case for most of the Jackets roster last night, he came up empty. He lined up with Yegor Chinakhov and Cole Sillinger in an effective line that created five chances for, while giving up zero against.

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DOBBER

Pheonix Copley is 30 years old and hardly a prospect. But he came in last night to start for the Kings and stopped 31 of 33. It was Quality Start, and the Kings have only seen that 12 times in 28 games. They'll take it. So, is there a future here with Copley?

Jonathan Quick has been horrible this season (not surprised in the least) and Cal Petersen has been equally bad. I think Quick's bounceback campaign last season was buoyed by a strong October, a solid November, and a decent April. But really, he was only above average in October alone. The Kings' roster was winning games for him. That roster is still winning games, just not as many as they should.

Meanwhile, the better goalie – Cal Petersen – to whom they are paying big bucks, is coming in cold every start and struggling with that. Very poor goalie management here. Team brass needs to shit or get off the pot. It should be Quick who comes in every three or four games, and not the other way around. But hockey politics are at play here, and they are going with their guy who brought them the Cups and has the track record.

Circling back to Copley. He has been solid with the Ontario Reign (0.913 SV%, 6-4-0) and right now "solid" is good enough for a team like this. But as for the idea of Copley continuing to lead the charge towards a Cup run – that's something to explore if Petersen continues to struggle. But good news for Petersen owners: he has been spectacular in two AHL starts. Both Quality Starts, with 51 saves on 54 shots face. Perfect for his confidence. If Petersen continues, I still put my money on him being the answer. But if he returns to the NHL and struggles again – all bets are off.

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With two more goals in the game against the Sens, Viktor Arvidsson has 21 points in his last 21 games. The biggest thing for him is his PP production. Can't believe I'm saying that about Arvidsson, as I still remember his Nashville days when he was seeing 2:30 of PP time every game but only scoring three PPG and maybe seven or eight PPPts per full season. His PP IPP had usually hovered at around 40%, teasing us with his potential. If he's getting 50 points at even strength, and tons of PP time, shouldn't he be a 75-point player? But no, year after year he was giving us eight points on the PP. With Los Angeles, the PP time is the same, but now he's a central part of it. Already he's at a career high of 10 PPPts and has tied his career high with four PPG. His PP IPP is 66.7%, which is also a career high. Assuming the PP production is finally where it should be, I think there's still more upside here. His even strength numbers actually indicate a market correction upwards – just 6.9% for his 5on5 S%.

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As the Kings try different players on the Anze KopitarKevin Fiala line, it's worth noting that Tuesday's audition there had Arthur Kaliyev.

Cam Talbot had been on fire, riding a five-game streak for Quality Starts for the Senators. But he got roasted early, giving up five goals in the first half of the game before getting the hook. Anton Forsberg came in and stopped all 14 he faced. This makes things interesting because since November 16, Forsberg is 2-1-0, 2.09 GAA, 0.943 SV% with a goals saved above average of 4.590. This is probably a storyline that will bounce back and forth until March, but right now I wonder if Forsberg eventually sneaks in there and takes the starting gig. I'm intrigued enough to pick him up and put him on my bench.

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Well, that game went to Mitchell Marner. The Leafs blanked the Stars 4-0 and Marner scored just a few minutes in, becoming the first Leaf in history to put up a 20-game points streak. Jason Robertson, unfortunately, saw his 18-gamer come to an end.

John Tavares continues to maintain his FOW% above 60% while posting a point-per-game. Leafs fans are quiet now, but all summer I noticed a lot of them whining about him being overpaid and not earning his contract. He's been worth every penny. What is $11M supposed to buy you, if not a point-per-game center, team captain and clutch faceoff guy? The fancy stats really favor him too, and he's out there facing the toughest competition among any of their top six forwards – even tougher QofC than Marner.

Conor Timmins made his Leafs debut and played 14:49 while seeing 41 seconds of PP time. He had a SOG and one Hit while being paired with Rasmus Sandin. Timmins is only a steal if he stays healthy (huge "if"), but yeah he's a potential steal. While he was on the ice his expected GF/60 was an impressive 3.57 and his xGA/60 was just as impressive at 1.83.

Sandin scored Tuesday as he starts to settle in as the Morgan Rielly replacement. His PP time has understandably shot through the roof, though so far he has just one PPPt to show for it. He has three points in his last four games and I'm very bullish on his short-term future production.

Matt Murray made 44 saves and if you exclude his first game of the season, he is undefeated with ridiculous numbers: 6-0-2, 2.12 GAA, 0.941 SV% and 75% QS.

One thing that jumped out at me for Dallas – Tyler Seguin had six SOG for the second straight game. He's hungry, but hasn't scored on any of his last 25 shots.

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Congratulations Shane Wright!

After going to the Ahl for more ice time, scoring four goals in five games, Wright returns to the Kraken to score his first NHL goal on a pass from Oliver Bjorkstrand.

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Amazing, underreported accomplishment by Filip Hronek – he has points in each of Detroit's first 11 road games, a new franchise record (Sergei Fedorov did it for 10 straight to start 1993-94). Hronek has 15 points in those road games. Paul Coffey is the only other defenseman in NHL history to do this, and his record is 12 games so keep an eye on Detroit's next road game – Thursday against Florida.

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See you next Monday.

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