Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Still uncertain as to what lies in store for some players? You've come to the right place, as here at Goldipucks it's all about digging deep to find the story beyond the story and expose when looks not only can, but actually are, deceiving, plus, just as importantly, when they're not. The players under the microscope in this edition are Brayden Point, Matty Beniers and Mathew Barzal. Pause for a moment to ponder who among the three has been too hot, too cold, and just right for the 2022-23 season. Once you've locked in your guesses, read on to see if you were able to go three for three. Stats for all players reflect games played through December 9th.

Brayden Point (26 games, 13G, 14A, 78 SOG, 10 PPPts, 20:41 TOI, 4:21 PP, 70.4% PP%)

A draft bargain as the 79th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Point logged only nine AHL games before earning a full-time spot with Tampa in 2016-17. He progressed like a star in the making, starting decent, then seeing a nice jump in scoring, before a big leap coinciding with him hitting his 200-game breakout threshold. After a 92 point 2018-19 season, Point failed to fulfill what became lofty expectations, as other than a monster playoff run in 2019-20 he's been stuck below the point per game mark, with his last two seasons not seeing him threaten that threshold. As of now he's at an 85-point scoring pace. Is this the start of him climbing back to elite territory, or at least returning to point per game or better levels? Neither, as the data suggests the real Point is closer to the 70-75 point player he's been over the past two seasons.

Looking at Point's SOG, it's encouraging to see them rise in each of his last two seasons, and on pace to do so again for 2022-23. But prior to this season that'd been accompanied by a lower SH%, while for 2022-23 his SH% has stabilized despite similar shot distance ratios as 2021-22. Sounds good, until we pause to remember his SH% now is lower than his 70 point pace 2019-20 when he took fewer SOG per game. This also serves to show his 21.0% SH% in his 92-point 2016-17 season, which at the time I think too many people were in a rush to overlook, was far too high. Had it been his 17.1% career average he'd have netted 12 fewer goals, for 80 points in 79 games if none of those goals were repackaged as assists.

Another big problem with Point is IPPs. When playing with Nikita Kucherov one won't have a super high IPP because usually there's at most two points to fight over between the other four players on the ice at even strength. But Point is a center; and if anything their IPPs run high. Yet Point's IPPs, both overall and on the PP, have never – not even in 2018-19 – come close to hitting the magic 70% threshold I like to see from players who are elite or likely to become elite. Plus, his high came not in his 2018-19 season, but in 2020-21 when he scored at a 70 point pace. Granted, that was when he was without Kucherov for the entire season. But to see Point's overall IPP having never once even be 66%, that is cause for alarm. Although it's a good – for him – 62.8% for 2022-23 so far, there's a better chance of seeing it drop than hold or rise given that it was below 58% in two of his last three seasons.

If you thought that was bad, we haven't even gotten to his PP IPP yet. His best ever PP IPP was, not surprisingly, in 2018-19; but it was only 58.9%. Since then it's been under 44% twice and then last season it was 53.7% and this season so far its 50.0%. Why, then, is Point on tap to average a career high in PPPts per game? Because thus far the Lightning have averaged 3.73 PP opportunities per game, versus being in the range of 3.03 to 3.21 in each of the past four seasons and Point takes the ice for over 70% of Tampa's PP minutes. When that 3.73 number normalizes, his PP scoring will go down, as will his overall scoring pace.

What about other metrics? Point's secondary assist rate for this season thus far would mark a career high at 64.3%, and it was 50.0% or higher each of the past two seasons after having dropped three seasons in a row after his rookie campaign. Point also is seeing a lot more ice time this season, which is good except for the fact it has nowhere to go but down, as it's well over a minute more than any other past season. Moreover, as we all know Tampa cares only about one thing, and that's the playoffs, meaning Point will likely end up seeing less TOI to conserve him for the second season, hurting his production in the process.

Here's another thing – Point, at 5'11'' tall and 180 pounds, is quite small in stature for a center. Need proof? Going back to 2000-01, fewer than ten other centers who, like Point has to date, played 400+ games and were both neither taller than nor heavier than Point. What was the highest point per game rate of the ten? Would you believe a mere 0.55 points per game by Martin Straka, and that includes Straka's 95-point 2000-01 output? The rest were all below a point per every other game. Although past results are not indicative of future performance, Point's comparatively diminutive stature for a center should not, on paper, do him any favors when it comes to scoring.

When a player is so great one season, and also shined so bright on the Stanley Cup playoff stage, one would think he's a surefire star in the making. After all, if we go back to 2000-01 the only other centers to post point per game outputs twice by the age of 24 in 15+ playoff games were Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. But they were far more consistent regular season performers, plus larger in size. Point is a fine NHLer, but significantly overshadowed by his linemate Nikita Kucherov, as when Kucherov was out for the season Point only could manage a 70-point scoring pace. What all this adds up to is Point being a 70-75 point player, who, accordingly, is TOO HOT for 2022-23 and get a rating of 8.0.

Matty Beniers (26 games, 10G, 11A, 51 SOG, 5 PPPts, 17:18 TOI, 2:30 PP, 48.9% PP%)

Selected second overall in 2021, Beniers didn't do the usual nine game stint in the NHL at the beginning of that season, instead debuting at the end of 2021-22, posting nine points in ten games, including four PPPts, which, to give you an idea of Seattle's struggles last season, tied him for seventh on the team in PPPts for the entire year. Much was expected of Beniers for 2022-23, and he's fared pretty well at a 66 point scoring rate. Is it safe to expect him to keep up this pace? I'd say no, but only because he should do even better going forward.

For one, Beniers is being brought along slowly when it comes to ice time, as he's only at 17:18 per game overall and 2:30 on the PP. Also, Beniers is doing as well as he is despite going six straight games without a point back in November. Also, he had a multipoint game in his first contest for 2022-23, then none in 16 games. Since then? Try four multipoint efforts in nine games. To say things are trending in the right direction would be an understatement.

Also, even if his ice times don't climb, that might be a blessing in disguise, as in the eight games so far this season where Beniers took the ice for 18:00+, he's tallied four points. But in the seven games where he skated for 16:00 or less he has eight points. Berniers is able to score even when his minutes are limited. Plus, by the Kraken not playing him into the ground it cuts against him hitting a rookie wall.

It's true Beniers' SH% is high, but it was high last season too, and he's only at 2.0 SOG per game for 2022-23. Or to put it another way, all he'd have to have done is averaged 2.3 SOG per game rather than 2.0 to have the same goal total as he does now if he shot what he did last season. So if his SOG rate rises even higher, which is likely since he has 16 in his last five games, chances are it'd result in his scoring rate being higher even if his SH% drops a tad.

Also, if his SH% slips, he's still likely to be at 16.7%+ ala last season. And if we look at the list of centers who had scoring rates of 0.8+ per game (i.e., a 65+ point scoring rate) and a 16.7% or higher SH% in each of their first two seasons by age 20 dating back to 1990-91, we get Eric Lindros and Jonathan Toews. Two Hall of Famers — not too shabby!

I haven't gotten to the best yet. Berners' secondary assist rate is again under 50%, which an especially good sign for a center, as they tend to get more as puck distributors. Beyond that, his overall IPP stands at 70.0% after it was 81.8% last season. In other words, he's at the key 70% threshold, and can even go higher based on last season's output.

On the PP his IPP is only at 55.6%, whereas last season he was at 100%. But the good news is the Seattle PP is vastly improved, as it was converting at a miserable 11.4% last season, whereas that's more than doubled to 24.4% for 2022-23 so far. And even though the team runs two balanced PP lines, Beniers will get enough PP time where, at this higher team conversion percentage and figuring his PP IPP to rise at least into the 60s, his PP scoring rate will climb. Plus, although Beniers sits only eighth among Kraken forwards in ES SOG, his PP SOG total puts him in a much higher second place, further underscoring that he's poised to explode in terms of man advantage scoring.

It may rain a lot in Seattle, but there's a bright star shining in the form of Berniers, who is showing us what we saw last season was not a small sample size fluke. With Berniers starting to pile on multipoint games, plus solid IPPs and a great SH%, things seem poised to only get better over the course of the rest of the season. Accordingly, Beniers has been TOO COLD for 2022-23, and he gets a rating of 2.0, as I'd expect him to finish at or near the point per game mark, with the sky being the limit in future seasons.

Mathew Barzal (28 games, 3G, 27A, 69 SOG, 14 PPPts, 18:42 TOI, 3:47 PP, 73.6% PP%)

Selected 16th overall in 2015, Barzal was in the NHL to stay at age 20 without having logged a game in the AHL. What did he do as a rookie? Oh, just become the third center in the last 25 seasons to post 85+ points as a rookie age 20 or younger, with the other two being some guys named Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. But then Barry Trotz entered the picture, and Barzal's style of play was neutered, as were his numbers. The talent was still there, with Barzal having a 32-points in a 33 games stretch as recently as last season, but he wasn't getting the deployment he needed for sustained success. Is what we're seeing now for real? Yes, as with Trotz gone Barzal is unshackled and showing what he's truly made of.

One key for Barzal is New York is finally running a PP1 that leans on its stars like Barzal, who's taking the ice for nearly three quarters of all his team's PP time, a rate bested by fewer than 20 forwards, with all but four being part of a top unit, as opposed to Barzal, who gets far and away the most PP percentage among his team's forwards, as he should.

Of course much was made about Barzal going 18 games before scoring a goal in 2022-23. And sure enough that has led to his SH% being of course way down as compared to prior seasons. And he should also pot more goals in the normal course, as his SOG rate, although not way up, is on pace to tie his career high. For the month of December alone, he has 15 SOG in four games, highlighted by a nine SOG effort in one contest. In short, Barzal isn't afraid to shoot the puck; and although he's never had a super high SH%, as it does increase he should get more points in the normal course, although perhaps not too many more, since points he would have been receiving as goals likely were being repackaged as assists, where he sits third in the entire league. Despite that, plus him being a center, he's on pace to have a secondary assist percentage below 50%. So all things considered, his scoring numbers pass the sniff test.

What about other metrics? Barzal's overall IPP was 71.4%+ in all of the seasons Trotz was coach. For 2022-23, it's 78.9%, which, if maintained, would be the second best figure of his career but nearly identical to last season's 78.7%. I'd have envisioned it not to dip, as Barzal is going to be the most talented player on the ice at all times given the Islander wingers; but it isn't an area that should be affected by Trotz no longer being coach, as it's not a measure of offensive output but rather offensive skill. If anything I'd have expected his overall IPP to be higher during the Trotz seasons due to him having to "do it all by himself" more often. But with it holding steady, there are no concerns.

As for the PP, his IPP there was still very solid but not quite as superb, with it being 78.3% and 76.9% in two seasons of the Trotz era, but also 63.2% and 66.7% in two others. For 2022-23 it's 87.5%. With the skill level of his wingers being essentially unchanged versus his other Trotz seasons, that seems unsustainably high, as it either should be unaffected by his increased PP percentage or, if anything, lower due to him starting to tire during those long shifts. In all, I'd say that any drop in PP IPPs would at worst be offsetting the gains he stands to make in goals when his shooting percentage rights its ship.

Barzal also is starting a jaw dropping 78.7% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Clearly new coach Lane Lambert knows where his talent lies. Can that be sustained? Yes, as players like Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin were in the 70s for several seasons. But it certainly can't go up; if anything, that too might cause Barzal to score at a bit of a lower rate over the rest of the season. Again, there's an offsetting metric as the team's 5×5 team SH% when he's on the ice is only 9.1%, which, given his OZ%, is low. Fears of one production arrow pointing down are allayed by another that should, if anything, point up.

Those who held onto Barzal all these years are being handsomely rewarded, as he's playing like someone just released from hockey jail, which, in a sense, he kind of was. With Barzal being smack in the middle of his prime and getting superb deployment, things are looking up. His low secondary assists percentage and 5×5 team and individual SH% are enough to allay concerns in view of his IPPs and OZ%. As such, for 2022-23 thus far, Barzal's output has been JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 6.0, as he should finish within the 85- to 90-point range. If he ever gets better linemates, 100+ is realistic.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag still has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.