Looking Ahead: Jones Could Continue to Disappoint

Andrew Santillo

2022-12-16

My one-week hiatus has come and gone and it's time to dive back into fantasy hockey, particularly the schedule. I can't say I was able to catch a lot of puck the past week but from what I gather while I was gone: Mitch Marner may never be left off the score sheet again, Anaheim still has yet to win two games in regulation, Alex Ovechkin scored his 798th goal vs the Hawks…along with 799 and 800, and probably most important, Thomas Chabot hit Travis Hamonic with his stick in a YouTube clip I've probably watched 17 times already. Did I miss anything? Let's dive in!

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Jack Quinn, LW/RW, Buffalo Sabres (Rostered in 7% of ESPN leagues, 61% Fantrax, 18% Yahoo)
– I think we all know the top story out of Buffalo lately. No wait, besides Tage Thompson, the other top story. That just might have to be rookie Jack Quinn's play and very quiet ownership rankings.

When I sat down to write this week's Immediate Fix a few players came to mind right away but one that stands out that I've kept an eye on is Jack Quinn. I was encouraged by his play for the Rochester Americans and even going back to his draft year in 2020, he's a player that I thought could maybe sneak into the top five picks but went 8th overall to Buffalo. His play now reflects what we've seen from him all along, he's a very talented goal scorer and one of those players that just seems to understand where to be in the offensive zone and has no trouble getting to his spots.

So far on the season the numbers are good, 24 games played with six goals and 11 assists, but in the past eight games he's really stood out with eight points total. Just cutting his season in half, in the past 12 games he has gotten onto the scoresheet in all but two of them making him a piece I'd look to add to a fantasy roster and ride the hot hand. I also like the line that he's skating on with JJ Peterka and Dylan Cozens, who I wrote up as a Building Block, it's been more of a back-and-forth line as of late with 13 shots against and 14 for in the past three games, but I don't mind a high event line for fantasy and DFS.

There is some downside, first being ice time. Quinn sits around 16:15 minutes a night so you're really depending on that he can get there for you with lower exposure. Just me personally, I typically don't tend to roster rookies, as it's a long season and you really see the wear and tear of a full 82 games on younger players. Quinn, however, might have the benefit of the doubt in that regard having played in Rochester the previous season where in the AHL it's more or less a "regular" NHL-type schedule. For those in dynasty leagues I don't think I have to tell you more about Quinn, but for all others I think he makes a great addition here in the short term, especially the very short term. Buffalo plays Arizona this weekend who has been a doormat defensively.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Jake DeBrusk, LW/RW, Boston Bruins (Rostered in 40% of ESPN leagues, 70% Fantrax, 60% Yahoo)
– Like the Immediate Fix, there were a few players this past week that stood out. Taking a look at DeBrusk, I think there's merit in adding him to your fantasy roster for the long haul.

DeBrusk was a player I'd actually considered as an Odd Man Out just with how Boston has configured their lines recently as they have reunited the usually most expensive DFS line of the night, Brad MarchandPatrice BergeronDavid Pastrnak, moving DeBrusk from the top line down to second line leftwing. Sure, given the option of skating along that line compared to Pavel Zacha and David Krejci there's no comparison, but DeBrusk has been excellent this season and still will be put into advantageous spots for fantasy and DFS. He is still skating on Boston's top power play unit, which is tied for 3rd in goals on the man advantage this past month.

DeBrusk's play this season has been terrific, he has the highest points per 60 minutes of his career at 11.1 and I do feel like Boston may move him back up to the first line at times this season, trading spots with Pastrnak. Even if he's on the second line for the foreseeable future in his last game he had six shots on goal which makes me think that he'll be the trigger man along that second line. Yes, the roster numbers for him are a tad bit higher on each of the prominent fantasy sites, but I felt like I had to call it out for those in leagues where he is potentially still available. For DFS it's the same concept we've talked about, you play the entire line just to get a little bit more unique.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Adrian Kempe, C/LW/RW, Los Angeles Kings (Rostered in 78% of ESPN leagues, 80% of Fantrax, 58% Yahoo)
– Once upon a time, Kempe was that player that maybe you had your eyes on in drafts that could fall to you and be the perfect sleeper to add to your forward depth. While that still might be the case, it's not looking as promising as it did back before the season began.

Kempe has gone from top line wing, to second line, and now to third line center. Now I sort of see what the Kings are doing here trying to spread out the scoring along the top nine, especially with Viktor Arvidsson out, but so far that experiment has gotten them a 6-0 loss to Buffalo where all six goals for the Sabres were scored in the third period. I think as far as lines go for Kempe the Kings may continue to rotate forwards in and out for him on the third line, so in theory eventually he'll see a club that doesn't hard match for softer matchups.

Kempe still holds value, though, with top power play responsibilities. We're right around the corner for the Kings to get those softer matchups with San Jose, Anaheim, and Calgary all coming to LA up next on their schedule. I think now this could be a player you give a month and see where things stand, he's either going to be one of the best players that appears on your league's waiver wire or part of a trade. 

The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Seth Jones, D, Chicago Blackhawks (Rostered in 83% of ESPN leagues, 79% Fantrax, 58% Yahoo)
–  Before we start here, I think we need to take a solemn moment of silence for all those that had Seth Jones in salary cap dynasty leagues before his cap hit made him (at the time) the third-highest paid defenseman in the NHL.

Thank you.

Last season Jones was good, as 51 points from the blueline was more than adequate and this is a player that had good peripherals. This season the peripherals are still there, the scoring is not. Jones has no points in his last four games and only seven points on the season. He has missed time due to injury, but even if he plays in every game going forward, I think the forecast for him will fall around 30-33 points.

It's no secret as well, the Hawks are tanking and it's likely Jones could be quarterbacking a power play in the future that looks like Taylor RaddyshTyler JohnsonMax DomiAndreas Athanasiou as his forwards. That's of course if this Hawks organization moves in the direction that we all think it could go, which for fantasy could put Jones may be in no-man's land going forward.

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs through December 16th to December 28th

Carolina – Canes are a Love 'Em this week playing a home-and-home upcoming this weekend as well as playing three games next week. That's at the very least, three games for Pyotr Kochetkov to keep proving us all wrong.

Los Angeles
– Like I mentioned in the Odd Man Out, the Kings have a very light schedule coming up. They'll be home to take on the Sharks, Ducks, and Flames, followed by a road game versus Arizona.

Minnesota
– The Wild have won their last three contests and I think are kind of picking up speed here. Their defense has been much better allowing the least amount of high danger chances against in the past month, and with games at home against Chicago and Ottawa to close out the week, they are in a fantastic spot to keep progressing forward.

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Pittsburgh
– The Pens have also been playing better as of late, winners of six in a row. They'll be only play twice next week but will be tested versus the Rangers and Canes, both on the road.

Buffalo
– Although the Sabres will see the Yotes this weekend, games versus Vegas and Tampa next week are looming in Buffalo’s near future. That comes at a tough time for a club sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic Division.

Chicago
– It may come as a shock to you all, but the Hawks are bad at finding the back of the net, ranking dead last in goals over the past month. Along with sub-par goaltending and a bad penalty kill, they're a Leave 'Em upcoming.

Before diving into the schedule, we received a question as to how the assumptions are built and also along those lines how to read the graph to better understand what's upcoming for clubs that are listed. The assumptions are that teams that play more games will have a better chance for fantasy numbers, playing at home is typically better for positive fantasy results as opposed to on the road, and playing a "weaker" club increases a player's chances to produce than a "stronger" one.  

Keep in mind, not all schedules are equal. Playing on the road in New Jersey, for example, is different than being on home ice versus Arizona. I go through each club week by week and assign each a value ranging from 0.80 to 1.20, with 1.20 being the best clubs and 0.80 the worst. These values are calculated by the schedule in a seven-day period relative to the schedule which assigns the values you see below.

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Friday, December 16th to Thursday, December 22nd, 2022
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.55 – Away ANA SJS – Home CHI OTT
Carolina 4.05 – Away PIT – Home DAL PIT NJD
NY Rangers 4.03 – Away PHI CHI PIT – Home NYI
San Jose 3.95 – Away LAK – Home CGY CGY MIN
Calgary 3.94 – Away SJS SJS LAK – Home STL
 
Steer Clear
Buffalo 2.09 – Away ARI VGK
Pittsburgh 2.49 – Away CAR – Home NYR CAR
New Jersey 2.66 – Away CAR FLA – Home FLA
Dallas 2.76 – Away CAR CBJ – Home EDM
Chicago 2.79 – Away MIN – Home NYR NSH
Saturday, Decemeber 17th to Friday, December 23rd, 2022
Best Bets
Carolina 5.26 – Away PIT – Home DAL PIT NJD PHI
Ottawa 4.90 – Away DET MIN WPG – Home WSH DET
Winnipeg 4.71 – Away VAN SEA BOS WSH – Home OTT
Los Angeles 4.61 – Away ARI – Home SJS ANA CGY
Vancouver 4.15 – Away EDM – Home WPG STL SEA
 
Steer Clear
Pittsburgh 2.49 – Away CAR – Home NYR CAR
St. Louis 2.85 – Away VAN SEA VGK
Seattle 2.90 – Away VAN – Home WPG STL
Chicago 2.94 – Home NYR NSH CBJ
Buffalo 3.04 – Away ARI VGK – Home TBL
Sunday, December 18th to Saturday, December 24th, 2022
Best Bets
Carolina 4.26 – Away PIT – Home PIT NJD PHI
Calgary 4.09 – Away SJS SJS LAK ANA
Ottawa 3.95 – Away MIN WPG – Home WSH DET
Winnipeg 3.86 – Away SEA BOS WSH – Home OTT
Los Angeles 3.45 – Away ARI – Home ANA CGY
 
Steer Clear
Buffalo 1.90 – Away VGK – Home TBL
Toronto 2.15 – Home TBL PHI
Pittsburgh 2.49 – Away CAR – Home NYR CAR
New Jersey 2.50 – Away CAR FLA – Home BOS
NY Islanders 2.66 – Away COL NYR – Home FLA
Monday, December 19th to Sunday, December 25th, 2022
Best Bets
Los Angeles 3.45 – Away ARI – Home ANA CGY
Carolina 3.27 – Away PIT – Home NJD PHI
Vegas 3.26 – Home BUF ARI STL
Columbus 3.23 – Away PHI CHI – Home DAL
Nashville 3.14 – Away CHI – Home EDM COL
 
Steer Clear
Pittsburgh 1.73 – Home NYR CAR
NY Rangers 1.80 – Away PIT – Home NYI
Seattle 1.85 – Away VAN – Home STL
Buffalo 1.90 – Away VGK – Home TBL
Chicago 2.05 – Home NSH CBJ
Tuesday, December 20th to Monday, December 26th, 2022
Best Bets
Los Angeles 3.45 – Away ARI – Home ANA CGY
Carolina 3.27 – Away PIT – Home NJD PHI
Ottawa 3.05 – Away WPG – Home WSH DET
Calgary 3.04 – Away SJS LAK ANA
Anaheim 2.90 – Away LAK – Home MIN CGY
 
Steer Clear
Buffalo 0.95 – Home TBL
Pittsburgh 1.73 – Home NYR CAR
Montreal 1.76 – Away COL DAL
NY Rangers 1.80 – Away PIT – Home NYI
NY Islanders 1.81 – Away NYR – Home FLA
Friday, December 21st to Tuesday, December 27th, 2022
Best Bets
Carolina 3.37 – Away PIT – Home PHI CHI
Vancouver 3.26 – Away EDM – Home SEA SJS
Los Angeles 3.24 – Away ARI – Home CGY VGK
Minnesota 3.14 – Away ANA SJS WPG
Vegas 3.11 – Away LAK – Home ARI STL
 
Steer Clear
Seattle 0.86 – Away VAN
Pittsburgh 1.65 – Away NYI – Home CAR
Philadelphia 1.71 – Away TOR CAR
New Jersey 1.74 – Away FLA – Home BOS
Montreal 1.76 – Away COL DAL
Saturday, December 22nd to Wednesday, December 28th, 2022
Best Bets
Boston 4.14 – Away NJD OTT NJD – HOME WPG
Calgary 4.09 – LAK ANA SEA – Home EDM
Carolina 3.37 – Away PIT – Home PHI CHI
Vancouver 3.26 – Away EDM – Home SEA SJS
Los Angeles 3.24 – Away ARI – Home CGY VGK
 
Steer Clear
Florida 0.81 – Away NYI
New Jersey 1.68 – Home BOS BOS
Philadelphia 1.71 – Away TOR CAR
Montreal 1.76 – Away DAL TBL
Chicago 1.81 – Away CAR – Home CBJ

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