Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. The Alex Ovechkin watch continues. In case you haven’t been following, Ovie has reached 800 career goals and needs just one goal to pass Gordie Howe for second on the all-time goals list.

A couple seasons ago, I didn’t think it was possible for Ovechkin to pass Gretzky as the all-time goals leader. Ovie was getting up there in age, he'd lost valuable games from two seasons due to COVID, and Gretzky has records that may never be broken in our lifetime. Now at the rate he’s going, it’s just a matter of time.  

Find out where Ovechkin ranks on the Top 100 Roto Rankings. Teaser: I have a hard time moving him down. Remember, the rankings are for single-season leagues, in case you think he’s ranked too high. (dec16)

2. Still with the Caps, Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom are skating, and both look to be somewhere between week-to-week and day-to-day. It could be that we see both back in the lineup by the New Year, and by then Darcy Kuemper and Martin Fehervary should be healthy as well. With a healthy roster, Washington is a team that could very realistically push themselves back into a playoff spot. Now, Kuemper being hurt may be a good time to buy in on the 32-year-old, though if you do it might be prudent to see about adding backup Charlie Lindgren as well, seeing as he has five wins in his last five games – each of them quality starts. He has earned some more rope even when Kuemper returns. (dec14)

3. If you don’t care about Ovie’s ranking that much, perhaps you care about Tage Thompson‘s, who was on a 126-point pace at time of writing. Say what? I’m certain none of us predicted before the season that he would reach that number, nor should we assume that he will reach that pace either. His advanced stats don’t necessarily scream sell high, although the 4.9 PTS/60 and 1033 PDO and even the 17.5 SH% suggest it’s not off the table.

Given what I’ve seen in fantasy hockey questions and discussion over the past few days, I get the sense that numerous Thompson owners are trying to sell higher than Thompson’s real-life 6-6 frame. If you’re offered Thompson, I would treat him as a point-per-game player and not much more, given his previous track record and previous susceptibility to injury prior to last season. Entering Saturday, he was third in league scoring, but that’s over a 30-odd-game sample and not an entire season. If he scores at a point per game the rest of the way (assuming no games missed), he’ll finish with 98 points because of the 46 points he’s already banked. (dec16)

4. Another Sabre I’m taking a wait-and-see approach with is Dylan Cozens, who is on fire with 16 goals in the last nine games before action on Saturday. There’s more bright red on Cozens’s advanced stats in Frozen Tools than Thompson’s, indicating a stronger sell high. Based on pedigree as a seventh overall pick, I’d only heed that advice if you added Cozens recently in a single-season league. He appears to be headed in the right direction if you’ve been waiting on him in a keeper league since 2019.

The Sabres might not be one of the top teams in the standings, but at least they’re having a lot of fun. (dec16)

5. You might be thinking about benching Jonathan Huberdeau at this point, and it wouldn’t be a bad idea depending on who your other options are. Huberdeau has scored just one goal in his last nine games and five goals in 28 games. He’s also on pace for 53 points, which is a much lower tier from the elite company he kept up with last season.

What’s also concerning is that he’s taking fewer than two shots per game (1.7 SOG/GP), down a full shot from last season. It might just be a “first year with new team” vibe, but so far it looks like he was traded from a much better situation in Florida. And for those about to ask whether they should trade Huberdeau: no, you don’t trade a player with elite upside when their value is at its lowest. Hold and hope that things turn around. That’s what I’m doing. (dec17) 

6. Jakub Vrana has been reinstated from the player assistance program, rejoining the Red Wings for practice on Friday while wearing a no-contact jersey. Vrana has played in just two games this season, and there is no timeline for his return to the lineup. Because he is IR-eligible, he is still 36% rostered in Yahoo leagues and 61% rostered in Fantrax. You can most certainly add him to your roster if he’s available, although it may not happen immediately. (dec17)

7. Kings: Trevor Moore signed a five-year contract extension worth $4.2 million per season. Moore has been earning less than $2 million per season, so this represents a hike in pay that you’ll need to account for in cap leagues after the season. Moore has been cold with no points in his last five games, but he scored the shootout winner in the Kings’ 3-2 win over Boston on Thursday.

My Zero G strategy on one of my teams consists of starting Ville Husso and another goalie that is either hot or has favorable matchups. Pheonix Copley was the G2 that I decided to roll with this week. Copley has started three of the last four games for the Kings, posting wins and quality starts in three of his own four games this season. The other game was a really bad start (RBS) in Buffalo on Tuesday in which all of his six goals allowed were in the third period after it looked like he would cruise to another quality start. Cal Petersen has a 2.01 GAA and .939 SV% in four AHL games, so Copley will probably be back in the AHL if he struggles for even just a few games. It seemed surprising that the Kings turned right back to him instead of Jonathan Quick after the RBS.  

After a so-so first two months of the season, Adrian Kempe is starting to heat up. With two goals on Thursday, Kempe has four goals over his last three games. Remember that he scored goals in bunches last season, so now might be the right time to add him if he’s somehow become available in your league. (dec16)

8. While Mitch Marner‘s point streak finally ended at 23 games last Thursday, he managed to pile up 32 points over those games, Mark Giordano hasn’t had much impact on the scoresheet this year. His production is half of what it was last year, and his shots are down by a third. On top of that, his on-ice shooting percentage is the lowest it’s been in his career. It doesn’t help that he’s seeing some of the higher defensive usage on the team. I have my eye on him in a couple of cap leagues due to his bargain contract, but Gio’s floor is a lot lower this year than it has been in the past. (dec14)

9. With both Alex Pietrangelo (who returned Saturday) and Shea Theodore out, relative unknown Daniil Miromanov was suddenly thrust into first power-play duties this week. The Golden Knights are getting hammered with absences again this season. 

Miromanov followed up a three-point game on Tuesday with an assist on Thursday after he was held without a point in his first five games. He's available in fewer than 10% of leagues in both Yahoo and Fantrax, so now is the time to go get him. He’s had decent AHL numbers over the past two seasons (53 PTS in 70 GP) so he could easily stick around once Pietrangelo or Theodore return. That being said, don’t expect him to unseat either for power-play time or other prime opportunities, so you’re adding him with the view that he may only benefit your team in the short term. (dec16)

10. The way Tim Stutzle went into the boards in last Monday’s game against Anaheim seemed to portend very bad news. We have seen players break collarbones and separate shoulders on similar plays and that’s something Sens fans and fantasy owners were worried about. Ottawa provided some very good news about Stutzle on Wednesday, though, as he didn't suffer any structural damage to his shoulder.

Including Wednesday night’s tilt against Montreal, Ottawa has six games in 10 days leading into the Christmas break. If he really can be back in a week, he could make the back-to-back at home to Washington and Detroit just before the league takes a few days off. If they want to give him those extra five days to rest, though, he could miss six contests. It does seem better than it looked at first glance, though. (dec15)

11. There's also some good news on the injury front for Ottawa: Josh Norris, who injured his shoulder just five games into the season, was back to his normal second-line spot during morning skates this past week, perhaps a month earlier than the team anticipated. It doesn’t look like he’ll be back in the lineup before Christmas, but it certainly does seem as if he’s well ahead of schedule.

Norris had 45 goals (!) in his most recent 82 regular-season games before getting hurt. While a lot of those were thanks to his power-play performance, putting up 17 PP tallies in that span, that does a disservice to his 5-on-5 scoring. In that span, he managed 1.09 goals/60 minutes at 5-on-5, tied with Patrice Bergeron, and in the 82^nd percentile of forwards (at least 1000 minutes played). If he can keep scoring at that pace, on top of his power-play prowess, Norris stands an excellent chance to be a high-end top-6 scorer for the near-term. (dec13)

12. One stat that isn’t kept but doesn’t take much wrangling to figure out is market share. This is a concept I borrowed from fantasy football and in hockey parlance it’s simply the percentage of shots an individual player takes of all the shots that are taken by his team when he’s on the ice. It is one way to figure out who is really involved in the offense, from a shooting perspective, even if the player/team itself doesn’t shoot a lot on the whole. It can portend an uptick in scoring or improved production should a trade to a new (real-life) team happen. [Please follow the link for Mike's findings]… (dec15)

13. Entering Saturday, Noah Dobson was back on pace to pass his previous career high of 52 points, which he set last season. If the team actually starts scoring more often while he’s on the ice, then that pace might even increase over 60, and he still hasn’t even hit the 200-game threshold.

Dobson is also putting three shots on net per game, but his hits and blocks are down a little. That’s likely a result of him seeing a more offensive role this year. With there not being another real threat for offensive deployment on the roster, or really even in the system, that should stick for the long run. (dec14)

14. Pending unrestricted free agent Bo Horvat is due for a solid raise, and it doesn’t seem like there is going to be a fit for him in Vancouver as they sit on the outside of the playoffs once again this year. Horvat is on pace to sail past his career high in points and goals this year. Surprisingly, his shooting percentage is the only underlying number that’s at all out of place. What’s interesting is that this is actually the first time in five seasons that Horvat isn’t seeing an incredibly unlucky team shooting percentage while he is on the ice, and as a bonus he’s starting the highest percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone in those last five years.

He may not be an 85-point player, but his average production the next three seasons is likely also above his previous career high of 64-points. Additionally, if Horvat does get traded, he may see his offensive zone time rise even higher, keeping his career season afloat if there is a statistical regression elsewhere. (dec14)

15. While I’m mentioning Horvat and his future contract, it’s unfortunate for him and all of the other 2023 free agents, as it sounds like the NHL cap won’t be going up by much – potentially by just $1 million (to $83.5 million per team).

This means we could see a few shorter deals this summer for a little less money. Players like Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and Roope Hintz who locked in early are likely sitting in a better position than those who wait until the summer. (dec14)

16. With a hat trick and an assist on Friday, Mats Zuccarello has extended his point streak to nine games. Over that span he has 13 points (5 G, 8 A). I’ll admit that I didn’t think it was going to work for Zuccarello and the Wild when they signed him to a five-year contract in the summer of 2019. But since lining up with Kirill Kaprizov, his value has skyrocketed.

2019-20 season without Kaprizov: 0.57 PTS/GP
2020-21 season with Kaprizov: 0.83 PTS/GP, 1.13 PTS/GP, 1.10 PTS/GP (dec17)

17. Sam Steel has done an admirable job filling in on the Wild's top line over the last few weeks, so it’s a wonder where Ryan Hartman slots when he returns (after getting hurt on October 1). Matt Boldy sure could use a center that can play to his strengths more than Frederick Gaudreau, whose defensive play is stellar but offensive contributions are questionable. It could be an end to Steel’s tenuous role on the top line, but we’ll have to see what combinations look like in practices as Hartman gets up to speed.

Since the start of the 2021 Bubble season, Minnesota’s top line generates 2.8 expected goals and 4.2 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Hartman and 2.3 expected goals/2.7 actual goals without him. (dec13)

18. Eeli Tolvanen was claimed off waivers by Seattle. Tolvanen had played just 13 games for Nashville this season and hadn’t suited up in over three weeks at the time of his claim. This has been a consistent theme of his with the Predators and now the team is moving on from him.

Right now, there probably isn’t much fantasy value here. The Kraken have their top-2 lines set, it seems, and it’s doubtful Tolvanen is put on a checking line with Yanni Gourde. This is an organization that can take its time with him, even if they’re in a playoff race for the next four months. I am still a believer in his talent and this is the same organization that sold low on Kevin Fiala just a few years ago. Tolvanen gets a new lease on his NHL career though the fantasy value isn’t there yet. (dec13)

19. Anyone that has read my Ramblings in recent history will know that I like to look for data/information in a wide range of spots for any advantage I can get in the fantasy game. Whether it be our Frozen Tools and the Schedule Planner (among other wonderful tools), Natural Stat Trick, or other stats websites, the search is varied. One of these spots is Corey Sznajder’s Patreon; he is someone who hand-tracks hundreds of NHL games every year across dozens of micro-stats. Of interest to me in particular is his scoring chances and scoring chance assists (passes leading to teammate scoring chances) at 5-on-5, or my name of Scoring Chance Contributions (SCC). They have very good correlation with 5-on-5 scoring and is something that I don’t think gets a lot of traction, namely because it does come from a Patreon.

Regardless, I find there’s value in it and with the season about one-third over, I thought it’d be a good chance to check up on some players, so please follow the link for more… (dec13)

20. Mikko Rantanen's last two seasons saw an 82-game pace of 104 and 101 points and if you thought that was his peak, or that he was overachieving – think again. Entering Saturday, his pace was 114 points. He’s in his prime and – knock on wood – his usual injuries haven’t hit. If he can play 75 games like he did last season, Rantanen will enjoy his first 100-point season.

21. You’ve probably been wondering why I’ve stubbornly kept Morgan Frost rather high in the Fantasy Prospect Rankings. His four-point game on Sunday was a long time coming. Too long? He’s 23, and fantasy owners aren’t known for their patience. However, injuries wiped out his first two pro seasons so let’s cut the guy a little slack. Treat him like he’s 21, because in development years he’s exactly that. His ice time has been creeping upwards and as long as that trend continues, he’s going to be that point-every-two-games guy this year. It is important to see him at least come close to 40 points this season, as it lays the groundwork for future upside. Frost is at 108 career games played, so his breakout would happen (on our model) late next season.

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BTW: Released on Friday, January 13 – the 15th edition of the DobberHockey Midseason Guide! Pre-order it here.

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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