The Columbus Blue Jackets saw a slew of defensemen injured roughly a month ago. All of Zach Werenski, Adam Boqvist, Nick Blankenburg, and Jake Bean have missed weeks for the Jackets. The injury problems just keep mounting, though, as Boone Jenner will be out for four weeks due to thumb surgery:

#CBJ place captain Boone Jenner on injured reserve with a fractured thumb. He'll have surgery and is expected to miss four weeks.

— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) December 19, 2022

After a slow start that saw Jenner post just one goal and four points in 10 October games, he had reeled off 10 goals and 18 points (six on the power play) in his last 20 games, averaging over three shots per matchup. Add in lots of hits and faceoff wins, and Jenner was having himself a very fine multi-cat season. Injuries have plagued him for years now but at least this isn't a recurrence of his back problems.

Kent Johnson took his spot on the top line, skating between Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine. Johnson has been having a decent rookie season with 14 points in 27 games but now he really gets a chance to take the next step in his production. We will see how long this lasts, though, as Laine has been showing good chemistry offensively with Jack Roslovic this season.

Following Monday night's game with Dallas, the Jackets have this as part of their schedule for their next six games: Chicago twice, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Ottawa. There could be some good fantasy value for either Johnson or Roslovic, depending on how this shakes out with their line combinations on a game-to-game basis.

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Stuart Skinner has signed a three-year extension with the Edmonton Oilers:

Hearing Stuart Skinner extension @JeffMarek reported is 3x$2.6

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) December 19, 2022

Skinner has been very good over the last couple season for the Oilers, posting a save percentage of .914 in 30 starts (32 appearances). Evolving Hockey has him at 11.9 Goals Saved Above expected in that span or saving roughly 0.37 GSAx per appearance. For a reference on how good that is, Linus Ullmark is at 0.21, Connor Hellebuyck is at 0.34, and Ville Husso is at 0.38. It is not a sufficient sample to make sweeping declarations, but it is a very good start to his NHL career.

Of course, this isn't good news for Jack Campbell or his fantasy owners. He has been pretty bad for a calendar year now and his backup has just received a multi-year extension. Unless Skinner completely falls on his face, Campbell has lost any hope of splitting starts. This could be a 75-25 share in favour of the young Oilers net-minder going forward.

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Jason Zucker was back at Penguins practice on Monday:

Jason Zucker is on the ice before practice. Looks like he might be staying for practice. Normal jersey. pic.twitter.com/DvXxA7dhe6

— Taylor Haase (@TaylorHaasePGH) December 19, 2022

Zucker had missed the last couple of games due to injury but looks to be back very soon. Pittsburgh has just two games in the next seven days, tonight in New York and Thursday in Carolina. He had been having a good season with six goals and 20 points in 27 games, but injuries have been a big issue for him since being traded from Minnesota. Hopefully, this is the last of it.

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Cam Atkinson got some more bad injury news:

Flyers forward Cam Atkinson will have neck surgery Wednesday and miss the rest of the season.

— Adam Kimelman (@NHLAdamK) December 19, 2022

Atkinson has yet to play this year and will miss the entire season. He has two years left on his long-term deal he signed with Columbus back in 2017. He had 23 goals in 73 games a year ago for the Flyers and with some of their young players taking steps forward, maybe he can regain his form in 2023-24. He does turn 34 years old in June so how much he has left in the tank is very much an open question.

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Denis Malgin has been traded to Colorado:

News: The #Avs have traded Dryden Hunt to the Toronto Maple Leafs for forward Denis Malgin.

— Bennett Durando (@BennettDurando) December 19, 2022

Toronto looked to be a nice landing spot for the winger, but he hasn't been able to gel with the top stars. Dobber touched on this in his Ramblings yesterday and it's something I agree with; Malgin just hasn't been given an extended look in the top-6, like Sam Steel has in Minnesota. We will see what happens in Colorado.

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Mikhail Sergachev was back at practice for Tampa Bay on Monday. He had missed the last couple games due to injury but seems to be ready to return to the lineup with the team in Toronto on Tuesday night. He is having a career year to date with 27 points in 28 games. If he can ever get back to the top PP unit – he practiced on the second unit yesterday – he could really have himself a great offensive season.

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A Kent Johnson goal with 15 seconds left in the game spoiled Jake Oettinger's shutout bid but he saved 27 of 28 on the night in Dallas's 2-1 victory. Jason Robertson scored an empty netter, his first goal in eight games. His absurd early-season production has slowed down but even this downturn has seen six points in eight games. Once the percentages turn around again, he'll be just fine.

Johnson stayed on the top line all game for the Blue Jackets as he finished with over 20 minutes in ice time. Gustav Nyquist took the top power-play role in the absence of Boone Jenner, though.

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Patrice Bergeron had a huge fantasy night in Boston's 7-3 beatdown of the Florida Panthers. The Bruins captain had two goals on five shots, added two assists, and mixed in a blocked shot for good measure. It was his first four-point game of the season, having done it twice in 2021-22.

Brad Marchand managed three assists, two of them on the power play, giving him his first three-point game in a month. He is now up to 26 points in 23 games since returning from his hip surgery.

Both Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe had a goal and an assist in the loss.

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Dmitry Orlov scored in overtime to lift Washington to a 4-3 overtime win over Detroit. He has two goals and four points since returning to the lineup, giving the team a scoring boost from the backend.

Nic Dowd scored a pair of goals just 11 seconds apart in the second period to bring a 2-0 Detroit lead to an even 2-2 game. Dowd has seven goals on the year with his career-high of 11 coming in the Bubble season. He's well on his way to surpassing that.

David Perron scored in the Red Wings loss, bringing him to 10 goals in 31 games on the season.

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Last week in my Thursday Ramblings, there was a discussion on market share. In short, it's just the ratio of shot attempts/shots on goal/expected goals that a player takes as a portion of all the shot attempts/shots on goal/expected goals that the team accumulates with him on the ice. If a player takes 20 of a team's 100 shots when he's on the ice, his market share is 20%. Pretty simple, right?

The reason for doing this is to try and find undervalued players in bad situation, on bad teams, or maybe enduring some bad luck. That last Ramblings discussed market share and shot attempts at all strengths. This one will be market share and expected goals at 5-on-5 among forwards with at least 200 minutes played this season. We are going to look at forwards that have high market shares and what it can tell us about their potential (or current) production.

For reference, both the average and median of the 359 players in this sample is 28.1%. One standard deviation above average is roughly 33.9% or higher. That is the range we're going to focus on.

Data is from Natural Stat Trick.

The 40-Plus Club

There are 11 players carrying at least a 40% market share of expected goals when they're on the ice. Some of them are depth players, including Max Jones (who is leading the league at 45.5%, by the by), Mark Kastelic, William Carrier, Warren Foegele, Dakota Joshua, and Calle Jarnkrok. It is notable that Jarnkrok was moved to Toronto's second line in practice with Malgin being traded but that second-line left wing spot has been a revolving door all season for the Leafs. I don't think he's the long-term solution but it's notable, nonetheless.

The more notable names include Brendan Gallagher (43.5%), Zach Parise (43.1%), Evander Kane (41.2%), Zach Hyman (40.6%), and Nick Bjugstad (40.1%). The Edmonton guys aren't really a surprise given their respective deployments this season. Gallagher almost always has a high expected goals rate because of his net-front/net-driving tendencies. Parise is a surprise, but we should note his 82-game pace is for 25 goals. Not bad for a 38-year-old.

It is Bjugstad that sticks out to me. He has played for five different teams over the last five seasons, currently lining up in Arizona. The former Panther has as many even-strength goals (six in 29 games as of Monday afternoon) as he did in either of his prior two seasons. This is a guy who could probably score 20 goals if he ever could produce on the power play, though Arizona is likely not the place to do it. He is a trade deadline candidate so keep an eye on him over the next couple months. If he can maintain this play and get moved to a good offensive team, he could have good value in banger leagues.

The Rest of the Top-25

After those first 11 forwards, the next group of 14 players (all above 37% market share) has a lot of names we'd expect: Tage Thompson, Timo Meier, Kyle Connor, Brady Tkachuk, Cole Caufield, Steven Stamkos, and John Tavares.  Those guys aren't getting traded – well, maybe Timo – but it's worth mentioning that they're still doing very well. There are two names that stuck out to me, though.

First, we have Dominik Kubalik. After being shunned by Chicago, Kubalik has posted 10 goals and 26 points in 30 games with Detroit, being just shy of 2.7 shots per game. He has seen his role reduced at times over the last couple of weeks and both Jakub Vrana and Robby Fabbri could be returning relatively soon (that's just my guess). What Kubalik's role is in a month's time is very much up in the air, but he is producing a lot of offence for the Red Wings. He has a year left on his contract so he may not be traded at the deadline, but it sure does seem he's making a point of being noticeable on the ice.  

The second name that is of interest is Dylan Cozens. He has infrequently played with Thompson at 5-on-5 so it makes sense to see them both on this list. Heading into Monday night's game in Vegas, Cozens was on a point-per-game pace and two goals away from tying his total from last season. By Corey Sznajder's tracking data, Cozens has been similarly excellent in generating scoring chances for himself and his line mates, with that number being in line with top-end centers like Sidney Crosby and Nico Hischier. From Evolving Hockey, his expected goals for/against impacts are good-to-very good:

Whether it's centering the second line with a pair of rookies, or skating on the top power-play unit, Cozens is helping the Sabres generate a lot of offence. Mix in some good defence and he is really breaking out right in front of our eyes. He clearly will not be traded but it does seem that Buffalo has the 2C they've been looking for since before Jack Eichel was drafted.

Others of Note

Let's quickly touch on a few more forwards worth a mention here.

Frank Vatrano is having a tough season in Anaheim, as most Ducks are, but he's been a big part of the offence when he's on the ice, carrying a 36% expected goal market share. He has just five goals in 32 games but is shooting a lowly 5.1% against a three-year average of 10.8%. If he can really start to find the back of the net, he could easily have 15-20 goals over the balance of the season.

Ilya Mikheyev has a strong market share this season, sitting over 34.8%. He has formed a good second line for the Canucks with Elias Pettersson and Andrei Kuzmenko but the team's struggles – combined with a couple injuries – have forced some line shuffling. It should be noted that in a full 82-game season, Mikheyev would be pushing past 25 goals. Not bad.

Gabriel Vilardi has seen his production fall off considerably with three goals and five points in his last 18 games, managing just 25 shots on goal. While it's nice that he's generating a lot of the Kings' expected goals when he's on the ice – 34.3% – if he's playing 12-15 minutes in the bottom-6, recouping his earlier fantasy value seems very unlikely. He needs to start shooting a lot more.

The last name we'll mention, and he has been mentioned often in trade rumours, is Montreal winger Josh Anderson. He is producing a career-best expected goal rate of 0.96 and that has translated to his second-highest 5-on-5 goal rate of his career. The problem is he's skating 15:33 a night on the campaign, his lowest mark since his 2016-17 rookie season. If Anderson isn't traded, the team will still be looking to move players like Sean Monahan and Evgenii Dadonov, so there may be more ice time for Anderson over the team's final 20 games. Just something to think about.