Ramblings: Christmas Is Here! Friday Night Performers Ovechkin, Beauvillier, Georgiev, Kane, and more (Dec 25)

Ian Gooding

2022-12-25

Merry Christmas! Whether you celebrate or not, hope you have a great day.

Alex Ovechkin needs only 93 more goals to catch Wayne Gretzky for the all-time lead. Ovechkin has 22 goals in 36 games, so let's assume he scores 20 more goals this season for another 40+ goal season. That would leave him with just over 70 goals remaining. If he were to score at least 35 more goals over the next two seasons, he could break the record near the end of the 2024-2025 season. I think I mentioned this earlier, but a couple years ago, I didn't think it would be possible for Ovechkin to pass Gretzky. Not with him in his mid-30s and valuable games lost due to COVID. Age will catch up to Ovechkin one day, but the fact that he hasn't shown any signs of aging (beyond the gray hair) makes me think that the record is now within reach.

If hitting the post or crossbar doesn't count as a goal or a shot, maybe it could be its own separate fantasy category. I'm sure it's a prop bet somewhere already.  

Sonny Milano has goals in back-to-back games, giving him six points in his last five games. Overall, he's managed to turn not being qualified by the Ducks during the offseason and being cut from a PTO by the Flames into 16 points in 23 games with the Capitals. That's currently a 57-point pace, although he won't reach that number because he didn't debut with the Capitals until early November. Since then, Milano has been frequently used on a line with Evgeny Kuznetsov and seems to be thriving.

Following his hat trick last Saturday, Erik Gustafsson has put together a four-game point streak with seven points over that span. Prior to that, he had recorded 10 points over his first 31 games. He's proven to be a feast-or-famine scorer throughout his career, as he has one outlier 60-point season (2018-19 with Chicago) but has never reached 30 points in any other season. Ride him while he's hot, but don't hesitate to drop at the earliest sign of a cold spell.

Something to keep an eye on for after the holiday break, since teams don't usually disclose a ton of information while on break: John Carlson was taken to the hospital as a precaution after he was struck in the face with a shot during the third period. Any time missed for Carlson could benefit Gustafsson, who received 50+% PP1 minutes when Carlson was out of the lineup for several games in early November.

David Pastrnak now has goals in four consecutive games, including five goals over that span. He's also fired six shots in back-to-back games, pushing him into the league lead with 168 SOG. After hovering around the point-per-game mark the past two seasons, Pasta is back in full force on pace for his first 50-goal season. He and Nathan MacKinnon are the only two players averaging over five shots per game. This season is the first time in Pastrnak's career that he has averaged more than five shots per game, which might have something to do with the overall team success that Boston is having.

I was contemplating adding Tony DeAngelo in one league on Friday morning because I needed power-play points. However, I opted not to because of the potential for a heavy minus game against the Hurricanes. The game didn't play out that way, as DeAngelo was a plus-1 in a 6-5 loss while adding a goal, an assist, and five shots in 25 minutes. TDA now has multiple points in back-to-back games as well as eight points over his last eight games.  

Carter Hart entered this game in relief of the struggling Samuel Ersson, but Hart himself was injured in a collision and did not return. Hopefully this is precautionary and nothing more. The injury is an upper-body injury, so we'll have to wait and see if he's okay after the break.

With an assist, Morgan Frost is now riding a four-game point streak. A quick look at his quarterly splits shows that his single-season value has climbed from Quarter 1 to Quarter 2. During Quarter 2, he has received 2.5 minutes more icetime per game, while he has moved from a checking unit with Nicolas Deslauriers and Tanner Laczynski to more of a scoring line alongside Owen Tippett and James van Riemsdyk. The Flyers might be going nowhere fast, but they have a few players with fantasy potential. Frost is 4% rostered in Yahoo and 26% rostered in Fantrax.

Aaron Ekblad also left Friday's game in the first period with an upper-body injury. After the game, his injury was described as day-to-day, although the fact he is Band-Aid Boy Certified might have us worrying a little more.

Not long after I cut Anthony Beauvillier in my keeper league, he served up his best game of the season on Friday (2 G, 1 A, +3, 5 SOG). A couple offseasons ago, I was so enticed by Beauvillier's playoff performance that I decided to trade for him, thinking bigger and better things were in store. Yet he's been a 0.66 PTS/GP scorer during the Islanders' two recent Conference Final runs but not even a 0.5 PTS/GP scorer this season or last.

He's still only 25, so there may still be time. As well, he has consistently been on the Anders LeeBrock Nelson unit throughout the season. Nelson himself has been a near point-per-game player this season (34 PTS in 35 GP), so Beauvillier might be due for a better second half if he remains on Nelson's line. I was surprised that Beauvillier is only rostered in 1% of Yahoo leagues, but maybe I shouldn't be considering how many more players have better numbers.  

If you're on the hunt for rookies, Kirill Marchenko has four goals in his last seven games. He received a callup in early December after accruing 19 points in his first 16 games in the AHL. Lately, he's been used on what effectively is Columbus's second line with Gustav Nyquist and Jack Roslovic as well as the second-unit power play. He's only 1 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues, so right now he is more of a deep league add and player to keep in mind for the future. For more on Marchenko, check out this week's The Journey.

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If you're looking for no-name players on scoring lines, one option is Lane Pederson, recently acquired by the Canucks in the Ethan Bear trade. Since being called up by the Canucks, Pederson has been added to a line with Elias Pettersson and Andrei Kuzmenko. Pederson scored a goal and added an assist with a plus-3 on Thursday, although the best he could do on Friday was two shots and three hits. Pederson is a very deep reach, I'll admit, but he might be more of a player of interest if he can continue to find success on a line with the red-hot Pettersson.

Speaking of Pettersson, I'd like to speak to the manager of Frozen Tools! Pettersson should be on the hot list with seven points over his last two games. EP40 followed up a five-point effort on Thursday with two more assists on Friday. He also took five shots in each of those two games. Currently, there are 16 players with at least 40 points, and Pettersson is one of them. For all of these players, 100 points is within reach if they keep up their current pace.

Prior to Friday's two-goal output, J.T. Miller had not scored a goal in his previous 11 games. He's still managed a near point-per-game pace (31 PTS in 33 GP), but another run at 100 points seems out of the question.

With another two goals and two assists on Friday, Bo Horvat is showing no signs of slowing down. Only Connor McDavid and Tage Thompson have more goals than Horvat (24). Not that fantasy teams should complain that much, but Horvat has just 11 assists. Horvat has never been a point-per-game player until this season (35 PTS in 33 GP). The Canucks are going to have to do something drastic in order to re-sign Horvat at what his market value now shows. For sell-high reasons and the fact they are far from being a true contender, they may be better off trading their captain before the deadline.

In a season where the practice of using significant draft capital on a goalie has been heavily debated, Alexandar Georgiev is sneaking into the discussion of fantasy's top goalies this season. Named the Second Star of the shortened pre-Christmas week, Georgiev is at the top of the Frozen Tools Hot Goalies list thanks to four wins and four quality starts over his last four games. Over those four games, Georgiev has pitched a shutout and not allowed more than two goals in a game. That's outstanding goaltending in a league where goalies nowadays frequently allow 3+ goals per game.

I wasn't sure what to expect from Georgiev given a lack of a track record as a starter and possibility of Pavel Francouz stealing starts. Yet as I decided to pick Francouz later in one of my drafts, I've waited a week and a half since his last start. Georgiev was drafted on average just after pick 100 in Yahoo leagues, which places him at the early stages of Zero G territory (by my understanding of Nate's theory). He's shown outstanding value, as only four goalies have more wins (15) while only two goalies that have played at least 10 games have a higher quality start percentage (69.6%). Georgiev has also been super reliable with only one really bad start compared to 10 last season.

Maybe a visit from the Columbus Blue Jackets is what Blackhawks legends Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews needed. Each recorded a goal and two assists in the Hawks' 5-2 win on Friday. Toews isn't rostered in that many fantasy leagues anymore (just 13% on Yahoo), so I'll focus on Kane here. He entered this game without a goal and just two points in his previous eight games. He has at least been shooting the puck with a combined 16 shots over his last two games.

It will be interesting to see whether the Hawks will part with one or both of their franchise icons before the deadline, quite possibly by retaining salary in the final year of the contracts of both. As well, how both would fit on teams that show more scoring depth. My early assumption is that Kane would slot in as a top-6 forward anywhere, while Toews would be more of a third-line option while providing that playoff experience that teams will pay a premium for in their quest for a Stanley Cup.

With four points on Friday, Chandler Stephenson is riding high with a seven-game point streak. Over that span he has 14 points, including two 4-point games. His point-per-game averages from 2018-19 until this season: 0.17, 0.40, 0.69, 0.81, 1.00. The Golden Knights must have known what they were doing when they acquired him for a fifth-round pick in 2019, then installed him on the top line with Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty not long after. He seemed like a flash-in-the-pan when he was first promoted to that line, but now he's at the point where he should be universally rostered. If you're not sold on him long term, he's at least eligible at all three forward positions in Yahoo.

Michael Amadio is now the unknown quantity on the Stephenson – Stone scoring line. Amadio had three points of his own on Friday, giving him goals in back-to-back games and five points over his last three games. He has the super-low ownership in all fantasy formats (0% Yahoo/2% Fantrax), so he's worth a flier in deeper leagues if Jack Eichel's lower-body injury keeps him sidelined beyond the Christmas break. Once Eichel returns, though, Amadio's value might be very limited and more reflective of his current rostership rate.

Happy Holidays! Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12 T.B vs FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12 WSH vs L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12 EDM vs OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BOS Players
22.7 PAVEL ZACHA DAVID PASTRNAK MORGAN GEEKIE
18.8 BRAD MARCHAND ELIAS LINDHOLM CHARLIE COYLE
17.5 COLE KOEPKE MARK KASTELIC JOHN BEECHER

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Elan comes in to save the day and records with Shams to bring you all the fantasy news you need to know as we near the Christmas break. They cover the fantasy impact of the Kaapo Kakko trade and the nearing return of Alex Ovechkin and Rasmus Dahlin from injury. After that, they cover many […]

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