Ramblings: Lafreniere Scratched, Gustafsson Hot, Johnston a Rookie Goal Leader (Dec 30)

Ian Gooding

2022-12-30

Alexis Lafreniere was made a healthy scratch on Thursday with Sammy Blais re-entering the Rangers lineup for a more physical presence. Lafreniere hasn't been terrible this season, but a 39-point pace is only a modest improvement from last season. Lafreniere has been held without a goal in his last eight games, but his shooting percentage of 7.9% is significantly lower than the 17-18% from his previous two seasons. Another issue is icetime, which is down to 13:35 per game in Quarter 2 compared to 15:49 in Quarter 1.

Lafreniere's shot rate is also slightly up from last season but still under 2.0 SOG/GP, so he stands to improve on his five-goal total once he returns to the lineup. Keep him on your bench for now, and perhaps even consider a buy-low offer in a keeper format. Without getting into whether deployment has been a factor and whether he was actually ready when he debuted two seasons ago, remember that he's only 21. This is not the time to write him off.

The roster switch didn't seem to help the Rangers scoring-wise, as Andrei Vasilevskiy was too much for them. The Big Cat stopped 45 of 46 shots he faced to lead the Lightning to a 2-1 shootout win. After a rough start, Vasilevskiy is finding his form again.

Oct 11 – Nov 13: 11 GP, 5-5-1, 3.10 GAA, .898 SV%, -2.6040 GSAA, 36.4 QS%

Since: 14 GP, 10-4-0, 1.85 GAA, .940 SV%, 14.796 GSAA, 92.9 QS%

Vasilevskiy also has five wins and six quality starts over his last six games.

Hopefully you were able to activate Aleksander Barkov in time for Thursday's game. Barkov scored three goals in the first period before adding two assists to finish with a five-point game in a 7-2 shellacking of the Canadiens. Barkov has battled multiple injuries this season while on a point pace that is down from last season. Consider Barkov a potential buy-low for the second half.

Even though the Panthers have performed below expectations this season, Matthew Tkachuk hasn't disappointed. The former Flame scored two goals and added an assist while taking nine shots. Tkachuk is scoring at a similar rate (43 PTS in 33 GP) as last season when he finished with 104 points.

Mark Scheifele has two hat tricks in December, with his second taking place against the Canucks on Thursday. Only Connor McDavid and Tage Thompson have scored more goals than Scheifele this month (11 G). In spite of all the goal scoring (23 this season), Scheifele is below the point-per-game mark for the first time in seven seasons. Scheifele has only eight assists all season, which is easily the lowest total among the eight players with at least as many goals. Expect those numbers to balance out more in the second half, as Scheifele is shooting 22.5% but has a secondary assist percentage of just 37.5%.  

Josh Morrissey recorded a pair of assists for the Jets, making him the second defenseman to reach 40 points this season. Seems like only an injury might slow him down, and that's what he could be facing. Morrissey left Thursday's game with a lower-body injury, although coach Rick Bowness said after the game that they are hopeful Morrissey will play on Saturday. Keep an eye on the Dobber Sports News on Frozen Tools and Twitter for the latest.

I didn't realize the NHL was allowing four-digit numbers, let alone three-digit numbers. One thousand games for Sam Gagner is a remarkable feat considering the twists and turns he has experienced throughout his career. Gagner is now on his seventh NHL team, in case you lost count.  

In his two starts between the pipes for the Canucks, Collin Delia has posted two quality starts. Although he could not earn a win on Thursday, he pulled off this amazing save.

While Thatcher Demko is on the shelf, Delia has started two of the past three games for the Canucks, giving Spencer Martin a breather after Martin appeared in 10 consecutive games. Expect the two to split starts more evenly going forward until Demko returns.

Kyle Okposo has made his way onto the Frozen Tools hot list. Okposo had his own hat trick on Thursday, giving him five points over his last three games. He's also averaged four shots in each of those three games. Okposo has mainly played on a line with Zemgus Girgensons this season, so I'm not getting overly excited about him this season. That being said, I added him as a streamer at one point this season.

Erik Gustafsson is a top Frozen Tools search right now, and for good reason. With an assist on Alex Ovechkin's goal, Gustafsson has five goals and five assists in his last six games. John Carlson is expected to be sidelined long term, which should continue to help Gustafsson's value as he takes on Carlson's role on a strong PP1 unit. Gustafsson is now rostered in around half of both Yahoo and Fantrax leagues, so you may have missed your opportunity to add him if you haven't by now. Just bear in mind that he may lose considerable value when Carlson returns, and he's been wildly inconsistent throughout his career (one 60-point season, no other 30-point seasons). For now, roll with him in formats that use 4+ d-men.

With a goal and an assist on Thursday, Wyatt Johnston has five points over his last five games. Four of those points have been goals. Johnston is now up to 11 goals, which ties him for the rookie goal lead with Matty Beniers. At just 19 years of age, Johnston hasn't been overwhelmed by the NHL and probably deserves some consideration in deeper single-season leagues. He's also rostered in just 36% of Fantrax leagues, which to me is surprising given the higher concentration of keeper leagues over there. I thought that number would be higher, given his rapid climb from the OHL and the fact he was only drafted last year.  

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Johnston has frequently lined up with Jamie Benn, who is suddenly reversing the downward trend that his point totals have been on for several seasons. Benn is on a seven-game point streak with eight points over that span, and he's been a near point-per-game player this season (35 PTS in 37 GP). Yet some of his advanced stats show up in red on the Frozen Tools Buy/Sell meter (17.4 SH%, 12.9 5-on-5 SH%, 3.7 PTS/60), meaning regression is a strong possibility. As Benn's linemate, Johnston could be hurt by a possible downturn.

Worried about facing the Colorado Avalanche offense in a head-to-head matchup? Don't be. Colorado entered Thursday's play with the league's 25th-ranked offense at 2.91 GF/GP. Injuries to key players such as Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Valeri Nichushkin, and Bowen Byram (among others) have a lot to do with it and have resulted in the Avalanche currently holding down a wild-card spot as opposed to leading the Central Division.

Right after I typed this (you get used to real life destroying your narrative on this job), the Avalanche scored four times in the second period against Pheonix Copley and the LA Kings, although they eventually lost 5-4 in a shootout.

Cale Makar continues to do his thing with a three-point game (goal below) and five points over his last two games. Makar has also taken a minimum of four shots in each of his last seven games. Only Roman Josi and Dougie Hamilton have more shots than Makar (115) this season. In addition, no other player beyond Makar has averaged 27 minutes of icetime per game.

Morgan Rielly's return to the Leafs lineup wasn't enough to spark them to a victory against the… Arizona Coyotes? Some pretty awful plus-minuses on the Leafs in this one: Rielly (-3), Auston Matthews (-4), and William Nylander (-4). Before the season, you would have thought those numbers would have had a plus symbol in front of them when the Leafs face the Coyotes. Poking fun at the Leafs is a national sport for the rest of Canada, but I won't make that the focal point here. You may have heard that the Leafs are pretty good this season – just not against Arizona.

Yes, there are Coyotes on the Frozen Tools Hot Players list. Even though he was held without a point, Nick Schmaltz has nine points in his last seven games and 16 points in 19 games. He's available in about 75% of Yahoo leagues, so add him if you can make room. Shayne Gostisbehere recorded an assist, giving him three points in his last three games.

The Coyotes don't have a ton of players that you can rely on every game, but they seem to be banding together as a team to the point where they have been receiving meaningful contributions and aren't just placeholders in a long-term rebuild. Jack McBain broke a seven-game point drought with a solid roto game: 2 G, 5 PIM, 4 SOG. Onetime World Junior star Barrett Hayton broke a four-game point drought with a goal and two assists.

Michael Amadio has played in over 200 NHL games and to my recollection has never been on my fantasy radar. Yet because of the injury to Jack Eichel, Amadio has benefitted recently with a five-game point streak. Amadio has been skating on a line with Mark Stone and Chandler Stephenson. His fantasy ownership has increased in the span of a week from virtually nothing to 10% Yahoo / 7% Fantrax, so he's at the point where he could be added in many league formats. Just note that once Eichel returns, Amadio could be moved down the lineup again unless the lines are reshuffled in a way that retains at least some of his current value.

Did you predict Erik Karlsson would have 50 points this season, let alone before the halfway point of the season? Yeah, me neither. At this point I'm done trying to predict that he'll slow down, and I don't want to predict that an injury will derail his season. This is a great story for a Sharks team that is going nowhere fast. With two assists on Thursday, Karlsson has multiple points in each of his last three games and an 11-game point streak in which he has 17 points. He's the runaway leader for comeback player of the year so far.

With the late overtime winner and two assists, Tony DeAngelo now has goals and multiple points in three consecutive games. Prior to that, TDA was barely a half point per game player (14 PTS in 28 GP), so he seems to be finally finding his game in Philly. He has been a minus player all season (as expected), but he has posted a plus-7 over his last four games.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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