Looking Ahead: Get Behind Gustafsson and the Capitals

Andrew Santillo

2022-12-30

Welcome back everyone! I hope that everyone out there had a happy and safe holiday, but now it's time to focus back in on fantasy hockey and DFS. I mean, it's either that or check all the emails you've missed while you have been out of office? The answer here to me is obvious, let's dive in!

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Colton Parayko, D, St. Louis Blues (Rostered in 59% of ESPN leagues, 37% Fantrax, 15% Yahoo)
– With Torey Krug now on IR with a lower-body injury, it gives us an opportunity to add the player in fantasy who will likely step into his role on the team, and that may just go to Parayko.

I'm going to highlight another defensemen as a Building Block, due to the same circumstances of a player filling in for injury, but I like Parayko here as an Immediate Fix because I first want to see exactly how St. Louis is going to operate with Krug out of the lineup. The Blues change their lineup a fair bit, especially with the forwards at both even strength and power play, but on the blueline it has mostly been Krug quarterbacking the St. Louis top power play. With Krug now out, it looked as though St. Louis was going to run Parayko out as their top power play defensemen during their last game versus Toronto, and he did get top power play time along with Justin Faulk.

Personally, I like Parayko over Faulk. Although Parayko got off to a slow start this season he’s since picked it up with three points in his last four games and with more time on ice could have more of a significant impact for fantasy and DFS. If you need a defenseman in a hurry, I think Parakyo provides quick relief to any fantasy lineup in the short term.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Erik Gustafsson, D, Washington Capitals (Rostered in 13% of ESPN leagues, 51% Fantrax, 48% Yahoo)
– Gustafsson became one of the most added players in fantasy hockey over the break and that's due to the injury Capitals top defensemen John Carlson sustained before the Christmas Break.

Last week, Carlson was struck in the face from a Brenden Dillon shot, and we learned later from quotes from Capitals head coach Peter Laviolette that Carlson could miss significant time. That's a tough blow for anyone rostering him in fantasy and to a Washington club that has been playing well as of late, but it looks like Washington is going to use Gustafsson in the Carlson's spot. The reason I think that Gustafsson is a Building Block here is partly because we may not see Carlson return to the lineup for some time and unlike Parayko in the St. Louis situation, I'd have a hard time seeing the Capitals changing their top power-play defenseman in and out on the man advantage.

While John Carlson is the best offensive play driver along the blueline that the Capitals have far and away, Gustafsson isn't necessarily a below average defenseman. Just from watching him since his career began, he drops down to the circles easily to help keep a rush alive and has brought decent offense to his game recently. With 10 points in his last six games on a club that is second in shots for over the past month, I think Gus makes an excellent addition to any fantasy lineup that is in need of help on the blueline.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Taylor Hall, LW, Boston Bruins (Rostered in 80% of ESPN leagues, 86% of Fantrax, 67% Yahoo)
– I took a stroll down Hockey Reference Avenue the other day and stopped to look at Hall's page. Two things jumped out with the first being I couldn't believe he's in his 13th NHL season – has it really been that long? The second, his numbers this season are in a bit of a decline, but that's not to say that there isn't still some value to be had in rostering him.

Right now, in the latest iteration of the Bruins forward lines, Hall is slated on the third line and sure, he'll get softer matchups at times, but this also comes with a career low in time on ice. He's currently playing around 16 minutes a night and not skating on the Boston top six means less offense, with no points in his last four games and a career low in shooting percentage.

The positive here, it's Boston. If you're rostering Hall in a league with more bench spots available to you then he is a player that I still would hold onto. There's going to be times later in the season where Boston say moves Pavel Zacha down to third line left wing, giving Hall time opposite of David Pastrnak or they'll be moments as we've already seen where Hall skates on the Bruins top power-play unit. He's an Odd Man Out just off of depth alone but I think if you're rostering him now, he's worth holding onto for the time being.

The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Dominik Kubalik, LW/RW, Detroit Red Wings (Rostered in 62% of ESPN leagues, 77% Fantrax, 48% Yahoo)
– Although Dominik Kubalik may very well surpass his career high in points if he plays near a full 82 games for Detroit, he may still fall a bit short of where we penciled him in prior to this season.

I always thought of Kubalik as a player who you could see each season scoring around 20 goals a season, and this goes back to his start early in Chicago. He never really got top six opportunities there as often as we'd hoped but early on in his first season with Detroit, he was skating on the Wings top line with Dylan Larkin and David Perron. In one of my leagues, I even traded for him thinking that if he could continue skating along that line that he had real fantasy value. That, however, has not been the case the past month.

Since around mid-November, Kubalik began skating on Detroit's second line but still saw top power-play time. That was adequate and even with the injuries that came to Detroit there was a case to be made that Kubalik still had real value. Now however, he has dropped down to the third line and second power play, and the offensive output reflects those changes. No points in his past four games, and only one in the previous eight. If you're rostering Kubalik in leagues with less bench availability it might be worth it to try and find offense some place else. 

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs through December 30th to January 11th

Washington – Lots of love coming up here for the Caps, they're second in shots for in the past month and will see Columbus…twice. Two games versus the Jackets upcoming propels them to the top of the Love Em charts.

Toronto
– The Leafs are tied third in goals for over the past month at even strength and along with playing great have a very busy schedule upcoming and that's good news for a club that is higher rostered in both fantasy and DFS.

Tampa Bay
– The Bolts are a Love Em because besides just being Tampa Bay, their next two games are against Arizona and Chicago.  

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Calgary
– The Flames were a Love Em last week and at the time had started to heat up and although they do have Chicago on their schedule late next week, they also will go up against Ilya Sorokin and Connor Hellebuyck.

San Jose
– Two games next week for the Sharks put them on the Leave Em side of things for this week.

Minnesota
– The Wild have been playing well as of late going 7-3-0 in their last ten games and they have a decent schedule upcoming, but it's a matter of travel logistics towards the end of next week that puts them as a Leave Em. The Wild will play in Buffalo next Saturday to come back to Minnesota next Sunday. It's not a horrible time zone and travel gauntlet that we've seen but just enough to take me off them.

Friday, December 30th to Thursday, January 5th, 2023
Best Bets
Edmonton 4.14 – Away SEA – Home WPG SEA NYI
Nashville 4.02 – Away ANA VGK CAR – Home MTL
Carolina 3.85 – Away NJD NYR – Home FLA NSH
Seattle 3.84 – Away EDM TOR – Home EDM NYI
New Jersey 3.74 – Away PIT DET – Home CAR STL
 
Steer Clear
Winnipeg 1.84 – Away EDM – Home CGY
Minnesota 1.85 – Away STL – Home TBL
Calgary 1.90 – Away WPG – Home VAN
San Jose 2.04 – Away DAL CHI
Detroit 2.26 – Home OTT NJD
Saturday, December 31st to Friday, January 6th, 2023
Best Bets
Washington 4.36 – Away CBJ – Home MTL BUF NSH
Chicago 4.31 – Away CBJ – Home SJS TBL ARI
Tampa Bay 4.25 – Away CHI MIN WPG – Home ARI
Arizona 3.99 – Away TBL FLA PHI CHI
Nashville 3.92 – Away VGK CAR WSH – Home MTL
 
Steer Clear
Pittsburgh 1.81 – Away BOS VGK
Minnesota 1.85 – Away STL – Home TBL
Vancouver 2.65 – Away CGY – Home NYI COL
Montreal 2.75 – Away WSH NSH – Home NYR
Calgary 2.79 – Away WPG – Home VAN NYI
Sunday, January 1st to Saturday, January 7th, 2023
Best Bets
NY Rangers 3.93 – Away FLA MTL NJD – Home CAR
Carolina 3.80 – Away NJD NYR CBJ – Home NSH
Seattle 3.79 – Away EDM TOR OTT – Home NYI
New Jersey 3.73 – Away DET – Home CAR STL NYR
NY Islanders 3.66 – Away SEA VAN EDM CGY
 
Steer Clear
Pittsburgh 1.81 – Away BOS VGK
Vancouver 1.84 – Home NYI COL
Winnipeg 1.84 – Home CGY TBL
Calgary 1.84 – Away WPG – Home NYI
Dallas 1.90 – Away LAK ANA
Monday, January 2nd to Sunday, January 8th, 2023
Best Bets
Toronto 4.35 – Away PHI – Home STL SEA DET
Anaheim 4.31 – Home PHI DAL SJS BOS
Washington 4.15 – Away CBJ – Home BUF NSH CBJ
Arizona 4.13 – Away FLA PHI CHI – Home PIT
St. Louis 4.04 – Away TOR NJD MTL MIN
 
Steer Clear
Buffalo 1.95 – Away WSH – Home MIN
San Jose 1.99 – Away ANA – Home ANA
Ottawa 2.21 – Home CBJ SEA
NY Islanders 2.61 – Away VAN EDM CGY
Carolina 2.76 – Away NYR CBJ – Home NSH
Tuesday, January 3rd to Monday, January 9th, 2023
Best Bets
Toronto 4.35 – Away PHI – Home STL SEA DET
Washington 4.15 – Away CBJ – Home BUF NSH CBJ
Arizona 4.13 – Away FLA PHI CHI – Home PIT
St. Louis 4.04 – Away TOR NJD MTL MIN
Seattle 4.04 – Away EDM TOR OTT MTL
 
Steer Clear
Colorado 1.81 – Away VAN EDM
Vegas 1.94 – Home PIT LAK
Buffalo 1.95 – Away WSH – Home MIN
San Jose 1.99 – Away ANA – Home BOS
Pittsburgh 2.09 – Away VGK ARI
Friday, January 4th to Tuesday, January 10th, 2023
Best Bets
Arizona 4.39 – Away PHI CHI – Home PIT SJS
Detroit 4.15 – Away TOR – Home NJD FLA WPG
Seattle 4.13 – Away TOR OTT MTL BUF
St. Louis 3.98 – Away NJD MTL MIN – Home CGY
Minnesota 3.80 – Away BUF NYR – Home TBL STL
 
Steer Clear
Vegas 1.94 – Home PIT LAK
Buffalo 2.15 – Home MIN SEA
Chicago 2.15 – Home ARI CGY
Ottawa 2.15 – Home SEA NSH
Philadelphia 2.31 – Away ARI TOR
Saturday, January 5th to Wednesday, January 11th, 2023
Best Bets
Arizona 4.39 – Away PHI CHI – Home PIT SJS
Toronto 4.35 – Away PHI – Home SEA DET NSH
Seattle 4.13 – Away TOR OTT MTL BUF
Los Angeles 4.10 – Away VGK – Home BOS EDM SJS
Washington 4.09 – Away CBJ PHI – Home NSH CBJ
 
Steer Clear
Dallas 1.81 – Away NYI – Home FLA
Vegas 1.94 – Home PIT LAK
Tampa Bay 2 – Away WPG – Home CBJ
Buffalo 2.15 – Home MIN SEA
Chicago 2.15 – Home ARI CGY



*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz

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