Ramblings: Smith Debuts for Pens, Draisaitl Out, Raanta Shutout (Dec 31)

Ian Gooding

2022-12-31

Kris Letang was out of the lineup on Friday with a lower-body injury, which resulted in Ty Smith making his Penguins debut against the team that drafted him. Smith was immediately thrown onto the first-unit power play, which has been an ideal place to find scoring riches during the Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin era. Surprisingly, Smith led all Penguins defensemen in icetime, but that was because of the nine power-plays that the Penguins received in this game.

Smith hasn't been lighting up the AHL, but he has put together a decent 14 points in 26 games there. He has definite offensive potential, but it remains to be seen whether he can stick in an NHL lineup due to his defensive play. Plus/minus isn't the be all and end all of a player's ability, but it is worth mentioning that Smith was a team-worst minus-26 on the Devils last season. With Letang's injury status unknown, it's worth your time to look up the availability of Smith in your league (1% Yahoo/22% Fantrax).

That Pittsburgh power play went a very un-Penguin-like 0-for-9. If Letang misses additional time, the Penguins have a Plan B option with Pierre-Olivier Joseph for the first unit. The Pens actually shifted to Joseph on a power-play late in the second period, but he was otherwise on the second unit. Joseph tallied an assist in 17 minutes of icetime.

Ultimately the power play was the Penguins' downfall in this game, as they lost 4-2 to the Devils. Jack Hughes scored a pair of goals, giving him 20 for the second consecutive season.  

Filip Forsberg led the Predators with a goal and two assists in their 6-1 win over Anaheim on Friday. Forsberg now has goals in back-to-back games after being held without a point in his previous four games. After a season where he was on a 100-point 82-game pace (finished with 84 PTS in 69 GP), Forsberg's numbers are down to a 70-point pace this season. Nashville's scoring as a team is down nearly a goal per game (from 3.2 GF/GP to 2.48 GF/GP, 30th in the NHL), which is affecting players like Forsberg, Roman Josi, and Matt Duchene.

Dobber identified Forsberg as a top-10 player when it comes to missed shots (53). When you add a slightly lower than normal 10.3 SH%, Forsberg is a player who could score at an increased rate during the second half. He won't reach 40 goals again, but don't rule him out for a second-half run either.  

A quick check of the hot list for the Ducks shows nobody on the hot list. Yet there are plenty of players on the cold list, including Maxime Comtois (0 PTS in last 10 GP) and John Klingberg (0 PTS in last 5 GP). Klingberg has just three points (all goals) since November 17, which if you remove games missed due to injury is 14 games. I wrote about Klingberg in a Ramblings earlier this month, and since then things haven't gotten any better. His minus-22 is worst on the Ducks, a number that is only "worsted" by Seth Jones and Ryan O'Reilly.

The Carolina Hurricanes are on a roll, now having won 10 games in a row. That means start whoever is in net, whether it is Pyotr Kochetkov or Antti Raanta. On Friday, Raanta cruised to a relatively light 19-save shutout of the Panthers – his second consecutive shutout. After a great run from Kochetkov, Rod Brind'Amour has turned to Raanta for the past four games and he has delivered with four wins. I'm kind of surprised that Raanta has started four consecutive games without an injury, but good on him for that alone. Having a Christmas break before his two shutouts most likely helps with his recovery. The Canes are receiving strong enough goaltending that they don't need to rush Frederik Andersen back even if he's physically ready.

Martin Necas added another assist on Friday, keeping him on the Frozen Tools hot list with five points over his last four games.

No Leon Draisaitl, no problem for the Oilers on Friday. The Oils exploded for four goals within the first 10 minutes of their game in Seattle en route to a 7-2 win. Surprisingly, the Oilers amassed very little power-play time in this game, yet Kailer Yamamoto found himself on the first unit. With Draisaitl's status uncertain for Saturday night's match with the Jets, Yamamoto (3% Yahoo/28% Fantrax) makes for an interesting streaming or DFS option. Yamamoto recorded an assist on Friday, giving him assists in back-to-back games.

Just another day at the office for Connor McDavid, who finished with a goal and four assists. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had four assists, while Zach Hyman scored two goals and added an assist to give him six points over his last four games.

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Klim Kostin got in on the action as well with a pair of goals, a plus-2, six penalty minutes, four shots on goal, and two hits. Only Jesse Puljujarvi has more hits among Oilers than Kostin (62 Hits), and Kostin has played in 16 fewer games. Kostin hasn't really gotten a sniff on the Oilers' scoring lines, but there's still some deep bangers league value to be had.

I was going to bench Philipp Grubauer for this game. Really, I was. But I forgot. Then when I realized I hadn't, I then noticed that he allowed three first-period goals before getting yanked for Martin Jones. Ugh. Life gets in the way sometimes. I've been using a head-to-head strategy of benching my goalies for the rest of the week if I have outstanding GAA and SV% once I reach my minimum starts (having Linus Ullmark on two teams has helped tremendously here). In other words, I may punt the wins category if I know I can secure the GAA and SV% categories. The goal is to win two of the three goaltending categories. But now, my strategy shifts to chasing wins. Call it chicken shit if you want, but if goalies are voodoo, then limit your exposure as much as possible.

Lots of people are piling on J.T. Miller for his reaction to Collin Delia not skating to the bench during the final minute of Thursday's game, and rightfully so.

There are many other good pieces out there about this incident, but I'll turn my focus to Miller's numbers instead. Miller is not on a 100-point pace again, but that was to be expected. However, it is worth mentioning that Miller has just two goals in his last 14 games, and both were from the same game. As well, Miller is a minus-12, which is second-worst on the Canucks only to Brock Boeser. Miller leads the Canucks with 24 giveaways, which if you watch the Canucks regularly is not a surprise at all. Analytics back up the eye test on this one.

That being said, I'm here to tell you when to zig when others are zagging from a fantasy perspective. In other words, there might be a minor buy-low opportunity here. Some of Miller's advanced stats (6.1 5-on-5 SH%, 977 PDO, 27.8 Sec Asst%) are slightly lower than expected. If Miller can learn to channel his emotion in a more positive manner and be less careless on the defensive side of the play, he might be in for a stronger second half.

Alex Pietrangelo's 34:16 in icetime on Wednesday was the single-highest total in a game this season (which included an overtime with no goals). Only Erik Karlsson and Cale Makar have played over 32 minutes in a single game this season, and both have done it twice. Over his last five games, Pietrangelo has logged no fewer than 25 minutes per game. The Vegas blueline is currently without Shea Theodore, Alec Martinez, and Zach Whitecloud, so Pietrangelo should continue to play major minutes. Pietrangelo is delivering with those minutes with six points in his last six games.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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