Ramblings: Sprong; Pacioretty; Barabanov; Karlsson; Winnipeg’s Forwards; Five Game Flyers & More (Dec 14)
Alexander MacLean
2023-01-14
I'm taking over Ian's Ramblings as he was helping head the work on the Midseason Guide that was released yesterday. A ton of hard work compressed into a very short time-frame goes into it every year. It's extremely relevant for a short period of time, and then by the end of January you're too far behind your league mates to catch up anyways. Get in on it today over at the Dobber Shop.
*
Piggy-backing on Michael Clifford's thoughts on Daniel Sprong from yesterday's Ramblings, I also had him on my list of players I wanted to talk about. There is a lot to like with Sprong's scoring at this point in time, so it's no surprise he's jumping onto everyone's radar. I had been looking at him as a potential pick-up in one league, but the ice time trend worries me among a few other numbers.
Sprong gets 11 minutes of ice time per game, and that mark has seen only a slight bump from Q1 to Q2. That on its own holds me back from thinking he can keep up this 60-point pace, but looking at his underlying numbers, and the regression looks inevitable. His on-ice shooting percentage is over 15%, where anything over 10% is starting to get a little high. His own personal shooting percentage is part of that, sitting at 17%. Before this season, his career averge sat at about two-thirds of that mark. A 40- to 50-point pace the rest of the way is reasonable to expect, but if I'm adding him to my team I'm doing it expecting the 60-point pace to drop off starting tomorrow.
*
Max Pacioretty has fit in well with the Hurricanes through four games, with 13 shots and three goals. Really though, those totals are all from his first three games, as he left game four after seeing just three minutes of ice time. He was spotted talking to the trainer after he left, but was also seen later in the dressing room with the team after the game, looking no worse for the wear. It could be that his absence was just precautionary, but it is something to keep an eye on at this point. He's another player I'm hesitant to buy-in on too quickly.
*
To add another name similar to Sprong that may have been just off the edge of your radar to this point in the year, Alexander Barabanov is continuing to chug along just below a 60-point pace. In recent weeks he has seen his shot rate jump, from 1.5 to over two per game, and he's also seeing a minute more over power play ice time than he did through the first 20 games. He's minus-15 though, and plays for the Sharks, so it's not all rosy at the moment, but there are some things that point to him putting up over a 60-point pace in the second half.
*
The Blackhawks continued to remove anyone useful that they can from their roster, sending Lukas Reichel down to the AHL. The 20-year-old is a former first-rounder, and put up three points in his four games for the Blackhawks this year while playing on the top-line alongside Max Domi and Philipp Kurashev. It looks like a lock now that Patrick Kane will be back for tonight's game and taking over that top-line role again.
*
On the flip side of the injury news, Mark Stone is now week-to-week, as he left Thursday night's game after playing only four minutes. For the rest of the game, Jonathan Marchessault was up playing with Jack Eichel and Chandler Stephenson, while the second line consisted of Phil Kessel, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith. That's a good bump for Marchessault, and a small bump for Kessel jumping back into the top-six. Alec Martinez took Stone's spot as the fifth man on the power play, which is definitely something to watch – if the league leader in blocks suddenly starts adding some power play production, his fantasy value hits a whole new level.
*
Nashville's top goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov made his NHL debut in Thursday night's game, starting against the Montreal Canadiens. Now the Habs haven't exactly been the strongest offensive team this year, but they have had their moments. This was one of them, putting four pucks into the net behind Askarov in the 4-3 win for the Habs.
Two of the goals against Askarov were power play markers, and the defence really was doing him no favours all game. In 22 games at the AHL level this year, Askarov has a 13-6 record, with a GAA of 2.66 and a save percentage of .905 to go along with two shutouts. He is adjusting well to the North American ice, and should be in the NHL soon enough, though it's unlikely to be this year or next – especially with Juuse Saros blocking the crease.
*
Nikolaj Ehlers scored again last night, and he's now on pace for 130 points in a full season. His highest points-per-game pace in a full season before this year was 80, which seems low compared to what we have seen him do in stretches when he's fully healthy. It would be surprising to see him finish the season under a 90-point pace.
Meanwhile, Cole Perfetti was a game-time decision and in spite of that he put up three points. His production is trending in the right direction, but surprisingly both his shot rate and ice time are down from Q1 to Q2. Mark Scheifele and Blake wheeler also put up two points each. With the whole team finally healthy, they're looking very dangerous. Five of the top-six forwards are putting up 0.85 points per game or better – Perfetti should be there too by season's end.
*
Some fun thoughts on Erik Karlsson here who is seeing a resurgence in San Jose this year. He may or may not get traded, but if he does, then there aren't a lot of teams that could fit him and that mega contract in. A team would either need to accrue enough space by the deadline (WPG/BUF/NYI/DET – as fits) or send back a some big-money payers to even out the cap (WSH with T.J Oshie & Anthony Mantha or CGY with Milan Lucic & Nikita Zadorov). Of the set, my money is on Washington having the incentive (window closing and Carlson on LTIR), the manageable cap situation (moveable return pieces) and a disregard for the price (barren prospect system already anyways) that they find a way to get it done.
*
Looking ahead to next week's schedule, we have the only week of the season where an NHL team is playing five games. The Philadelphia Flyers play two back-to-backs on either end of the week, plus another game on Wednesday. This has a few implications for you leagues.
First, every Flyer is now worth a look at a streamer. The fourth-liners are still likely less valuable than a middle-sixer playing four games, but it's worth seeing who is out there. If your league is shallow enough that a Scott Laughton, Kevin Hayes, or Rasmus Ristolainen is available, then try to get them into your lineup. If your league is a little deeper, then maybe you find Travis Sanheim, or Hayes and Laughton's linemate Wade Allison to fill in for you.
Second, with the two back-to-back, that's pretty much a guaranteed three games from Carter Hart, and two from current backup Samuel Ersson. Knowing you can get two starts in a week from a goalie that is on the waiver wire in the majority of leagues can be very important depending on your situation.
Thirdly, and this counteracts the first two points a little, but, just because there is the volume, doesn't mean the team is going to produce. The first and last games of the week are against Boston and Winnipeg respectively, both of whom are rolling right now. Those will very likely be losses, and they could be big ones. On the flip side, the two games in three nights against the two worst teams in the league (Anaheim and Chicago) is something to target for all players.
*
NHL Central Scouting released their mid-season rankings, and while it's always interesting to peruse, take things with a grain of salt. Over the last few years, comparing their lists with some of the more visible public scouts, the NHL lists leave a lot to be desired. Again, they continue to drop players under six-foot-tall down the rankings. Players like Andrew Cristall, Riley Heidt, and Jayden Perron will be drafted higher than their rankings on that list.
*
See you next Wednesday!
In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.