Lining Up: Diving Into Each Of Seattle’s Four Lines, Finding Fantasy Value With Beniers, Tolvanen, Sprong, And More

Peter Ryell

2023-01-18

Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up. This week we're going to do a deep dive on the Seattle Kraken. After an incredible seven straight road game wins that saw Seattle post a 22-goal differential and 5.3 goals for per game, the team is now fourth in goals for in the entire league. Despite this hot run and the overall goal total, no Seattle player is on pace for more than 70 points and the highest rostered player in Yahoo leagues is Matty Beniers at 58%. How is it that such a high scoring team seems to be largely bereft of valuable fantasy players?

To answer the question, let's examine all four forward lines to determine which players are worth rostering in fantasy on a team.

Andre BurakovskyMatty BeniersJordan Eberle

This is the de facto number one line for Seattle based on ice time. Over the last 10 games, this line has seen the most amount of ice time at even strength and have a plus-six goal differential to show for it, although they have not been driving possession well recently as indicated by the 41.5% Corsi For. On the season, all three players are first, second and third in team scoring while typically starting more than 50% of the time in the offensive zone and are often deployed against a lower quality of competition. All three players are on the top power-play unit but since Seattle splits time between two units more evenly, none of them are averaging more than 52% of the power-play share so far and Burakovsky at twelve power-play points, is the only player from this unit with more than ten.

Keeping with Burakovsky, the offseason acquisition is on pace for his best season to date but only by one point. Looking at his advanced stats, he has adjusted well to Seattle and is within normal ranges across the board. His metrics this season such as points per 60, individual points percentage and secondary assist percentage are all within range of what he produced over his past three seasons with Colorado. He should continue to produce at his current rate, but should Seattle decide to lean more heavily on Burakovsky, whether at even strength or the power-play, he would almost certainly surpass a 70-point pace.

Matty Beniers is still in the running for the Calder Trophy halfway through the season and is on pace for 69 points, which is a very solid total for a rookie. He is getting excellent deployment, playing alongside Burakovsky, receiving nearly two and a half minutes of power-play time and averaging 17 minutes on the season. He is putting up two shots and over one hit per game for some decent peripheral contributions but does have a high shooting percentage at 19%. Given that his shooting percentage is high, he may be due for a slower second half of the season. The only way to mitigate a regression would be for Seattle to increase his time either on the power-play or at even strength.

Jordan Eberle has cooled lately and when looking at his advanced metrics, was no doubt due for some regression. However, he is having his most productive season since 2014-2015. His shooting, percentage of power-play and ice time are all relatively close to previous seasons so besides a slightly hot first half of the season, his increase in point production could be attributed here to playing alongside his strong linemates. Even as he is cooling off, so long as he is deployed on the top line, he should have a solid a floor.

Eeli TolvanenYanni GourdeOliver Bjorkstrand

This trio is very close in overall time to the first line, seeing only six minutes less at even strength and showing very strong results lately. They have a plus-seven goal differential over the last 10 games and are better at driving play with a 54.9% Corsi For. The impact of Eeli Tolvanen and immediate chemistry alongside Yanni Gourde in particular, has allowed for both players to flourish. Tolvanen is (finally) on a career-high pace of 57 points with seven in his last 10 games, showing a glimpse of the potential everyone had been waiting to see in Nashville. Tolvanen also has very strong peripheral contributions, averaging nearly two shots, two hits and just over a block per game.

Gourde has produced 10 points in that same span and actually has a low shooting percentage at only 8%, indicating that he could see some positive regression there. However, despite the team dividing power-play time between two units, Gourde has averaged only eight seconds of power-play time on the season. This is because he is typically used more as a shutdown line, as seen by the high quality of competition he faces in the Player Usage Chart. In order for him to provide more value to managers, he will need at least start to see secondary time.

Both players under 20% rostered in Yahoo leagues if they happen to go on another hot streak, however neither player is pacing for more than 60 points despite receiving solid even-strength deployment.

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Jaden SchwartzAlex WennbergJared McCann

The third line is largely being deployed against the toughest quality of competition. When viewing the Player Usage Chart for Seattle, Alex Wennberg leads all players in being deployed against the toughest opponents by a significant margin and that will subsequently cap offensive potential. Wennberg and Jaden Schwartz are both on pace for fewer than 50 points and their advanced stats indicate they are within normal ranges.

McCann however is on pace for 62 points and is second on the team in points per 60 minutes. He has had hot streaks this season and was on pace for a career high point production while he was playing alongside Beniers and Eberle on the top line. However, he has since been moved to the third line here and the deployment has impacted his production. If the lines are juggled and McCann finds himself once again on the first line, or at least part of a line that faces a lesser quality of competition, he could be in for a boost in production.

Brandon TanevDaniel SprongMorgan Geekie/Ryan Donato

The fourth line for Seattle, are not worth rostering unless you are in very deep leagues or in leagues with hits, where Tanev provides decent value at a 42-point pace with nearly two and a half hits per game. The one highlight here is Daniel Sprong whom, despite playing on this line, is on pace for 64 points and currently has been earning over two minutes of power-play time. He seems to be utilized in a role similar to Jamie Benn where he plays bottom six minutes at even strength but has a prominent special teams deployment, leading to 10 power-play points in 37 games. He also adds just over two shots per game and is dual-wing eligible in Yahoo leagues. At 9% rostered, he is a good candidate for streaming in when Seattle plays either soft matchups or has a dense schedule, particularly if your league counts points and power-play points.

Overall, the team has been productive at even strength due to multiple players such as Beniers, Eberle, Tolvanen and Sprong all producing at higher rates than normal. Even with hot streaks though, until one power-play unit is leaned on more heavily than another, production will likely be capped at where it is for players. It may take some increased ice time or quite the hot stretch before we see a member of the Seattle Kraken surpass 70 points.

Thanks for reading.

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