Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. The All-Star break is looming with it officially starting next Thursday, February 2. The break itself is four days long but the NHL is giving its teams more time off on either side of the break. It is going to make for a light schedule over the next couple of weeks, so be sure to use the Frozen Tools Schedule Planner to see what those weeks look like from January 30^th through February 12^th.

Also, be sure to check out Andrew Santillo’s ‘Looking Ahead’ column. He covers all this stuff much more in depth, and every week, so he’ll have his thoughts on this lightened schedule sometime Friday. (jan27)

2. Fox For Norris (Again): I had a long thread on Twitter a week ago about Adam Fox and how good he’s been this year, so anyone that uses that hellsite can check out my extended thoughts there. Suffice to say, he’s been unbelievable. A year ago, he was a top-10 defenceman in the NHL by SCC/60, showing out as one of the best young offensive talents on the blue line in the league. This year has gone to another level as he (7.54) leads second-place Roman Josi (5.78) by 30% in this regard (entering Thursday action).

That is mostly because he has seen the largest increase of SCC/60 for the 163 rearguards in the sample. He took a top-10 number, added a lot to it, and now exceeds Josi by 30%. It really is quite an unbelievable performance. This jump in scoring chance creation bears out in the numbers as the team scores one-third of a goal more every 60 minutes with him on the ice than the next-closest Rangers defenceman, generating more shots and shot attempts. He is fourth in points among his brethren across the NHL and could crack 80 points even with a slight downturn. Fox has been nothing short of supernova for New York this season.

Keeping a rate 30% higher than the next player behind him feels much too high to sustain but it’s clear that Fox has cemented himself as an all-world player at both ends of the ice. (jan26)

3. Auston Matthews is expected to be out for at least the next three weeks with a knee sprain. Matthews reportedly injured his knee during Wednesday’s game against the Rangers. With the injury to Matthews, Michael Bunting moved to the first-unit power play for Friday’s game against Ottawa. As well, Bunting was on the Leafs’ new top line along with John Tavares and Mitch Marner. Pontus Holmberg moved up to the second line alongside William Nylander and Calle Jarnkrok. 

More injury news: Former Leaf/now Canuck Ilya Mikheyev will undergo ACL surgery shortly, shutting him down for the season. That’s a bit of a shocker, as Mikheyev played on Friday and even scored his first goal in 15 games. That being said, the ACL had been an issue all the way back to the preseason, and it is possible to play on a torn ACL. Taking care of it now should ensure he is ready for training camp next season. I’m guessing he will be “upgraded” from Band-Aid Boy Trainee to Certified Band-Aid Boy, as he has never played more than 54 games in any of his four NHL seasons. (jan28)

4. Brandon Montour has extended his point streak to nine games. He also has 13 points in his last 13 games. I’ll admit that I didn’t have Montour on my radar at all this season, but he has unexpectedly gained first-unit power-play time while his overall icetime has increased nearly seven minutes per game over last season. At one time a team that tried a five-forward first-unit power-play, the Panthers have now swung the opposite way with two defensemen (Montour and Aaron Ekblad) on PP1. (jan28)

5. With a goal on Friday, Filip Chytil now has goals in three consecutive games and five points over that span. He’s been making it work on the Kid Line for much of the season with Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko, but what might be surprising given where they were drafted is that he’s the leading scorer among all three (29 points in 41 games). Some higher-than-normal advanced stats (18.0 SH%, 3.0 PTS/60, 1052 PDO) might suggest that a downturn is on the way, but it’s clear that Chytil has taken a step forward this season. (jan28)

6. All Kirill Marchenko does is score goals : 13 goals – but no assists – in 27 games. In what should be a surprise to absolutely no one, no player with as many goals is without an assist. He’s shooting a very unsustainable 26%, so fewer goals with a few more assists seem inevitable going forward. (jan28)

7. Is there a goaltending controversy in Calgary? Dan Vladar picked up his fifth consecutive win on Friday, stopping 28 of 30 Seattle shots that he faced. The last time he lost in regulation was November 26, which is a span of 13 games (10-0-3 record since).

Vladar’s and Jacob Markstrom‘s goals-against averages aren’t that different, but Vladar has shown the better save percentage. Moreover, a -10.82 GSAA (goals saved above average) uncovers Markstrom’s struggles even further. Vladar is rostered in less than half of leagues in both Yahoo and Fantrax, so he’s a legitimate option because it appears that he is more than just a seldom-used backup now.

Meanwhile, Markstrom has no wins and just one quality start over his last five games. With an ADP of 30 in Yahoo, he might be this season’s poster child of why it’s not a good idea to draft goalies early. I’d still bet on him receiving the majority of starts going forward because of his contract, but that could change if he continues to struggle and the Flames are fighting for their playoff lives. (jan28)

8. Andrei Kuzmenko has re-signed for two years with Vancouver. There was chatter of a trade, seeing as the Canucks need to really stop spinning their wheels in mediocrity and start setting themselves up for the future. However, they decided to extend a winger with 47 career games that is shooting nearly 25% through his age-29 season rather than build for that future because this team cannot stop being hilarious. (jan27)

9. Vegas defenceman Shea Theodore was in a regular jersey at practice on Thursday. The 27-year-old blue liner has not played in seven weeks due to a leg injury but had posted 22 points in 29 games before exiting the lineup. That is a 62-point pace in a full campaign and was doing so without much power-play production. He will provide a much-needed boost whenever he does return but keep in mind we’re less than a week from the All-Star break. The team may give him some of that additional rest if they feel he needs it. (jan27)

10 Shayne Gostisbehere was dinged up in Arizona’s game on Tuesday. That is going to cause him to miss around a month. We’re fewer than six weeks away from the trade deadline. Gostisbehere is a pending free agent who turns 30 years old this spring, so he’s likely not in Arizona’s long-term plans. He was an attractive trade deadline candidate but if he’s not healthy, do teams still want to acquire him, and will they pay his market price? We’ll find out in a month or so. (jan27)

11. The Pittsburgh goaltending situation has been muddled of late with an injury to Tristan Jarry. He has just three starts since Christmas as he’s made his way in and out of the lineup. This has forced the Penguins to recall Dustin Tokarski, who has made two appearances for the Penguins this month.

This looks like a frustrating situation for fantasy owners. Jarry has been good over his last four full seasons with the Penguins, posting a .918 save percentage in 157 appearances (152 starts). However, he suffered a serious injury heading into the postseason last year, which greatly hurt Pittsburgh’s playoff chances, and now he’s dealing with this lower-body problem. Whatever the issue, it seems like it’ll be hard to rely on him anytime soon, especially given the news that came later in the day that he'll be out until after the All-Star break.

It is going to be a waiver-wire dance for fantasy owners and starting Pittsburgh goalies. Maybe this even changes the team’s approach to the trade deadline? Do they want to bet on one of the few years remaining in their core’s Cup window on Jarry being healthy in April and May? (jan26)

12. A couple of days ago in these Ramblings, I discussed improvements from last season to this season by scoring chance contributions per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (SCC/60). To put it simply, SCC/60 is just adding a player’s individual scoring chances and their assists on a teammate’s scoring chance, and using a 60-minute rate. Those Ramblings covered improvements from some forwards, so this one will cover the defencemen. We are going to limit it to blueliners with 200 minutes tracked last year and 100 minutes tracked this year. (jan26)

13. Much to my surprise, the second-largest year-over-year increase in SCC/60 was from Boston’s Connor Clifton. Then I checked his stats and (at time of writing) he had 13 points in 47 games, or 23 points per 82 games. That is compared to 20 points in his first 154 games, or 11 points every 82 games. He has nearly as many goals this season (4) as he did in his entire career beforehand (5). All of this is very confusing to me.

What is throwing me off even more is that he has played just 20% of his 5-on-5 time with Patrice Bergeron. The whole team is good but that he’s not skating all that much with the top line is a good sign. His numbers are better with Bergeron on the ice with him, but everyone’s are. It should also be noted that Clifton has played over 20 minutes in three of his last four games, having not had a 20-minute game since mid-November. He can put up great peripherals so there might be something here long-term? Something to monitor for the rest of this season, at any rate. (jan26)

14. In yesterday’s Ramblings, Michael Clifford mentioned the Ottawa lines and what they looked like post-Josh Norris‘ surgery announcement, including the recall of Ridly Greig. Mathieu Joseph is the one name to key in on here, because he’s someone that is on the waiver wire in most leagues, but could be one of those players that goes-off in the second half with 30+ points in the remaining 36 games if he stays up on that top line with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle.

I mention this because last season Joseph closed out the campaign with 12 points in his last nine games after being traded to Ottawa. During that stretch, he was playing almost exclusively with Norris and Tkachuk, on the team’s top line. It may not stick, but at this point he’s worth a speculative add. (jan25)

In case you missed it, Greig took eight shots on goal with an assist while playing on a scoring line with Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux in his NHL debut on Wednesday. Although he remained on that line on Friday, he was held to just a single shot on goal on Friday without a point. Greig could remain with the Senators for the rest of the season if he performs at the NHL level. He posted 23 points in 28 games in the AHL this season. For more, see his Dobber Prospects page. (jan28)

15. Chris Kreider has come back to Earth just as we all expected, nestling himself into his usual 55- to 60-point-pace after his golden 77-point season a year ago. However, if we look under the hood a little, Kreider’s shot rate, usage, and ice time all line up more with last year than the rest of his career. This year, his shooting percentage is a bit below his career norm, and his teammates aren’t scoring at quite the same rate with him on the ice either.

The bad luck shows that maybe there is hope for him to finish the season above a 60-point-pace, especially if the team picks thing up around him. The Rangers started slowly overall, and the team hasn’t generated the same expected-goals-for numbers as last year, especially with Kreider on the ice. Overall there is reason to believe we see Kreider finish the last 35 games with at least 26 points – a 60+ point-pace. (jan25)

16. Kris Letang made his return to the Penguins lineup this past week, two games after Jeff Petry also returned. With Letang back, the latter still managed an assist, plus a few added peripherals, but was relegated to the second power play unit. Petry is an excellent multi-category own, but his upside is capped while Letang is healthy. As we know though, his status can change in the blink of an eye.

Letang himself wasted no time in re-introducing himself to the scoresheet in his first outing back, posting two goals, two assists, six shots, four hits, and two blocks. Hope you re-activated him in time! That top power play is still lethal, and if you want a slim piece of it, Rickard Rakell will be the cheapest of the group to acquire. (jan25)

17. Defenceman on hot streaks: Dougie Hamilton is up to 30 points in his last 26 games, up from 16 in 23 in the first quarter. He has only one game on the season without a shot on goal. He’s up to the 3.6 shot-per-game mark, a mark that he has only held one other season, the other year he paced for 70 points. This pace is here to stay, and he will finish the season with 70+ points assuming he stays healthy. (jan25)

18. The Arizona Coyotes re-upped Juuso Valimaki for another year, at a $1 million cap hit. The young defenceman has been a nice depth piece for the team, and may even see his role increase for the end of this year and into next year as the Coyotes trade off Jakob Chychrun and Shayne Gostisbehere. He’s not fantasy relevant at this point, but does have some eventual upside, and the drop in cap hit adds some value in cap leagues.

Speaking of cap leagues, the updated bi-monthly rankings are here: skaters and goalies. (jan25)

19. Wade Allison has been a nice surprise for the Flyers. He took some time to get back up to speed after getting the season started late due to an injury (Ed. note: he missed Saturday's matchup because of a lower body ailment). He's found his groove on a line with Scott Laughton and Kevin Hayes, putting up seven points in his last 11 games, with over two shots and three hits per game in that same stretch. This is all being done while seeing around 12 minutes of ice time per night, and taking on a heavier defensive role. There is some scoring and grit upside here as he develops. (jan25)

20. Since returning from the Christmas break, goaltender Vitek Vanecek has a 9-0-0 record. His numbers overall would be classified as above average, but that’s only because he hit a bit of a rough patch in early December. If you disregard that cold spell, his numbers have been as good as anyone in the league other than Linus Ullmark. Vanecek is signed for the next two seasons and this team is just finishing up a nice rebuild, making this the perfect storm for Vanecek owners. (jan23)

21. The Montreal Canadiens have been swamped with injuries this season, but their most recent one is their most significant so far. The team announced that Cole Caufield will miss the rest of the regular season, as he will undergo surgery on his right shoulder. Caufield finishes the season with 26 goals in just 46 games, including 48 goals in 83 games under Martin St. Louis. That’s quite impressive this early in his career, and even more so if he’s been playing through a shoulder issue for a while.

This type of injury would be a major blow to a team with playoff aspirations. As it stands, the Habs are one of a handful of teams with semi-decent odds to win the draft lottery. On Thursday I discussed the possibility of playoff-bound teams shutting down key players in the last week or two, citing the Habs’ longtime rivals in Boston. On the other end of the scale, teams trying to increase their chances of landing Connor Bedard might consider expediting surgeries that would normally take place right after the season ends. That seems like an ethical way of tanking, as it ensures that an injury to a key asset is not made worse. For fantasy leaguers, this might also be something to consider. We may not know who these players are right now, but perhaps look out for players on bottom teams that might be playing through something.

I’ll add one more caveat to this. I’m not trying to suggest that Caufield is having surgery strictly because the Habs are trying to tank. In fact, it sounds like quite the opposite, where he probably should have had the surgery sooner. That being said, there’s absolutely no point for basement-dwelling teams to push their star players through injury. (jan22)

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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