Fantasy Impact: Bo Horvat Traded to Islanders

Dobber

2023-01-30

The Vancouver Canucks have traded Bo Horvat to the New York Islanders for Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty and a 2023 first-round draft pick.

The Canucks get: an underachieving forward who has been in the league for seven years – yet he's still only 25. Beauvillier has at times been used on a shutdown line, while at the same time posting 30 to 40 points a season. His production has often been clustered into the second half of the season, or playoffs, thereby teasing fantasy owners like myself into thinking he has another gear. In his last two postseasons he has tallied 27 points in 41 games. Is there another gear? Well, escaping the Island and playing a looser brand of hockey will finally tell us if there is. It certainly doesn't hurt…The Canucks also get a good prospect in Raty, who was a second-round pick in 2021 (52nd overall). Raty has already played some NHL games and is thought to be NHL-ready. Raty ranks 54th on my most recent Prospect Rankings, with first-line upside but a likelihood that places him more as a second/third-line tweener.

The Islanders get: Vancouver's team captain. Horvat is in the prime of his career at 27, and he's enjoying by far his best NHL season, producing at a 90-point pace. Horvat is set to become an unrestricted free agent, so the Islanders paid a heavy price for what could end up being a rental. The track record for the Islanders is that they tend to sign their rentals though (i.e. most recently J-G Pageau, Kyle Palmieri).

Fantasy Players Impacted: Horvat's fantasy value is dramatically impacted here. The Island has long been considered in fantasy circles to be the Siberia of fantasy hockey. It's where production goes to die. The current group of Islanders, aside from Horvat, has a grand total of three players on pace to beat 45 points – a number that Horvat has already surpassed. Horvat's 54 points now leads the Isles, and I think we can all agree that in terms of pure offensive talent and upside – Mathew Barzal is superior. Yet Barzal has just 43 points on this team. So use that as your baseline for what Horvat's second half is about to look like.

Up until now, the Islanders four centermen have been Pageau, Brock Nelson, Casey Cizikas and Barzal. Well, Barzal's faceoff acumen has been…well, let's just say it leaves something to be desired. His win rate is just 35.9% on the campaign. Horvat's is 56.0%. This means that Horvat likely takes Barzal's spot at center and shifts Barzal to the right wing. Playing with Barzal should lessen the pain for Horvat owners. A Barzal move to the right wing will knock Oliver Wahlstrom off the top line (when he returns from injury), while Josh Bailey sees a linemate upgrade as the left winger. If the spot doesn't go to Bailey, it will go to Anders Lee. But pencil in Bailey for now.

Horvat's presence steals some of the thunder from Nelson, who had been the Islanders' leading scorer to this point. It remains to be seen if ice time or PP time gets cannibalized here, but my theory is: if a player is doing great, you hate any change in the dynamic as it could disrupt the great roll he was on. Nelson owners should probably be cringing just a little.

Horvat had mostly played with JT Miller and Conor Garland, though lately he lined up with Brock Boeser and Ilya Mikheyev (prior to his knee injury). This trade puts Miller at center permanently, rather than often using him as a winger. Here are potential line combinations for Vancouver:

Andrei KuzmenkoElias PetterssonBrock Boeser

Anthony BeauvillierJT MillerConor Garland

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Vasily Podkolzin – Aatu Raty – Dakota Joshua

With Jack Studnicka and Sheldon Dries as other options at center on the third or fourth line. This is a big upgrade for Beauvillier in terms of linemates and potential power-play options.

Although Boeser's "best linemate" (a feature we have in our player profiles is a "best linemate" section where it lists the linemates who have been in on the most points with that player) is Horvat, it is very likely that he gets moved to the Pettersson line. So Boeser's numbers shouldn't be affected too much.

Fantasy Players this helps, in order:

  1. Barzal
  2. Beauvillier
  3. Bailey
  4. Raty

Fantasy Players this hurts, in order:

  1. Horvat
    – sizable gap –
  2. Wahlstrom
  3. Nelson

One Comment

  1. Striker 2023-01-30 at 19:37

    Mikheyev had surgery & is gone for the season. I own Nelson in several pools not really concerned in the slightest. I assume Pageau will lose his spot on the 1st PP unit to Horvat. Everything else is status quo. Nor do I think Horvat will suffer well any more than he already had as his goal-scoring dried up in Van about a dozen games ago but I assume he stays about the same in NYI. I think Horvat helps NYI’s offense, especially that 1st line if you wish to call it that as really Nelson & Lee are the 1st line for me or were.

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