Wild West: Revisiting Points Per 60 Minutes

Grant Campbell

2023-01-30

We last looked at points per 60 minutes in a mid-November article, so this week we're going to look at where players are at now on a team-by-team basis.

I’ve tried to include some numbers from the 2021-22 season as well for comparative purposes. Johnny Gaudreau led the NHL last season with 4.5/60 followed by Jonathan Huberdeau and Nikita Kucherov at 4.4, Matthew Tkachuk at 4.3, Connor McDavid and Kirill Kaprizov at 4.2. There were only 10 NHL players at 4.0 or higher last year. This year there are currently seven players who have played more than 20 games and are above that threshold.

I will be focusing mostly on forwards below as defenders typically play more minutes and have much lower pts/60 than their counterparts up the ice. If a defenseman appears below, he’s doing extraordinarily well.

Current league leaders this season are Connor McDavid at 4.9, Nikita Kucherov and Tage Thompson at 4.4, followed by David Pastrnak and Leon Draisaitl at 4.3, Jason Robertson at 4.1 and Matthew Tkachuk at 4.0.

Simply put a player who is at 4.0 who plays 15 minutes per night will produce 82 points in an 82-game season. If they play 20 minutes per game, they will produce 110 points.

If a player is at 3.0 at 15 minutes per night they will produce 61 points, and at 20 minutes per night 82 points.

2.0 at 15 minutes per night will produce 41 points and at 20 minutes per night 55 points. This is where we see some of the defensemen listed below in this range.

Anaheim Ducks

Troy Terry – 2.6 points per 60 minutes (Mid-November was at 3.8 pts/60); he is lower than last season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him above 3.0 at the end of the year.

Trevor Zegras – 2.6 (2.7); he has been pretty consistent this year and last, but like Terry he has another gear.

Mason McTavish – 2.3 (2.2); as his ice time increases, he could make a run for the Calder.

Adam Henrique – 2.2 (1.8); his career-high was 2.5 last season and he has been between 1.6 and 2.5 in 11 of his 12 NHL seasons.

Last season Terry led the Ducks at 2.9 per 60, followed by Zegras at 2.7 and Adam Henrique at 2.5.

Arizona Coyotes

Matias Maccelli – 2.7 (2.7); he went down with an injury and missed 16 games, but is back in the lineup now. As impressive a story as he has been in his rookie season, his production will more than likely slow down.

Nick Schmaltz – 2.5 (2.2); his production was at 3.1 last season, so he could have a pretty good second half this year if he can stay healthy.

Clayton Keller – 2.4 (3.6); he had a great start to the season, but has slowed down to a level just below last year.

Lawson Crouse – 2.1 (1.8); he was at 1.8 last season, so could maintain where he is at. With only 38.3 of his zone starts in the offensive zone, his production has been impressive.

Dylan Guenther – 2.1 (2.5); at just 19 years of age, Guenther has put up impressive numbers while averaging 13:07 per night. Imagine what he will do in a few years when he is playing 17 or 18 minutes?

Jakob Chychrun – 1.9 (injured); he was at 1.9 in 2020-21 when he had 18 goals and 23 assists in 56 games, so his current pace is sustainable.

Nick Ritchie – 1.9 (2.5); Ritchie has been between 1.8 and 2.1 in each of the last five seasons.

Barrett Hayton – 1.3 (0.8); last season he had a 1.4 pts/60 pace and ended up with 23 points in 60 games. I was expecting more of him this season, but the good news is that his production is on the rise.

Last season Nick Schmaltz led the Coyotes with 3.1/60, followed by Keller at 2.8. No other Coyote was over 2.0.

Calgary Flames

Tyler Toffoli – 3.0 (2.6); he has never had a season above 3.0, but he has had two of his previous 10 seasons above 2.7.

Elias Lindholm – 2.9 (2.2); he had a range between 2.3 and 3.0 over his past four seasons.

Adam Ruzicka – 2.7 (3.4); he had been a healthy scratch for three games before playing just seven minutes in the Flames last game and is pointless in his past 12 games. It's impressive that he is still at 2.7.

Nazem Kadri – 2.6 (2.9); in the past six seasons, Kadri was between 2.1 and 2.7 except for last season where he ballooned to 3.8.

Huberdeau – 2.5 (1.9); it's a good sign for the Flames that Huberdeau has increased his production even slightly. He's still nowhere near the 4.4 he was at last season but if he can get around 3.0, he might salvage an otherwise disappointing year.

Dillon Dube – 2.1 (1.1); Dube has been between 1.7 and 1.9 over the previous three seasons so it wasn't too surprising to see him improve on his early lack of production.

The leaders who are still on the Flames from last season were Lindholm at 3.0, Andrew Mangiapane at 2.6 (1.9 this year) and Toffoli at 2.4.

Chicago Blackhawks

Tyler Johnson – 2.6 (4.3); he has only played in 22 of 48 games this season, but he hasn't been above 2.6 since he was at 3.3 in 2014-15 when he had 72 points in 77 games with Tampa Bay.

Max Domi – 2.4 (2.4); he has been more consistent than I would have thought in his eight seasons as he has been between 1.8 and 2.5 except for one season where he had 3.0 on 72 points in 82 games in 2018-19 with Montreal.

Patrick Kane – 2.3 (2.6); this season is Kane's lowest output of his career. He has only been below 3.0 twice in the past 12 seasons.

Jonathan Toews – 2 (2.5); he was at 1.8 last season, so has had a slight resurgence in offense this season.

Jason Dickinson – 1.4 (2.4); he was between 0.8 and 1.3 throughout his career and has come down to the higher end of that range.

Andreas Athanasiou – 1.3 (1.6); in his previous seven seasons, he was between 1.8 and 2.5 so I would expect him to raise his production a little in the second half.

Last season Kane was at 3.2, while Domi was at 2.5 with Columbus and Carolina. Andreas Athanasiou played 28 games with Los Angeles and had 2.4/60.

Colorado Avalanche

Nathan MacKinnon – 3.9 (4.8); he is right on par with his production from last season but he has seen his ice time go from 21:04 to 22:28.

Mikko Rantanen – 3.3 (5.0); he has come down to the level he was last year, but like MacKinnon he has seen his ice time go from 20:58 to 22:49 because of all the injuries to Colorado's top-six.

Valeri Nichushkin – 2.6 (5.0); he has battled injuries all season, but was never going to stay above four. He is currently matching where he was last season.

Cale Makar – 2.3 (2.8); Makar has been merely mortal this season with just over a point per game after 44 games, but I'd expect him to have a better second half.

Devon Toews – 1.4 (2.4); last season he was at 2.0, but he has been between 1.2 and 1.4 in each of his other four seasons.

J.T. Compher – 1.9 (1.1); in his prior four seasons, Compher was consistently at either 1.6 or 1.7 each year. We have seen him rise above that level after a slow start.

Last season the leaders were MacKinnon at 3.9, Rantanen at 3.5, Landeskog at 3.4 and Makar and Nichushkin at 2.6.

Dallas Stars

Jason Robertson – 4.1 (5.5); although he has come down a little, he is still one of only seven players in the NHL above 4.0.

Roope Hintz – 3.8 (4.7); there was only one direction that Hintz was going to go from 4.7 and that was down, but he is still holding pretty well.

Jamie Benn – 3.4 (3.9); his career-high is 3.3, so expect his production to come down a little. 

Joe Pavelski – 3.2 (4.4); he is right where he was last season. It's worth noting that his ice time has gone down from 18:28 to 17:35 this year.

Tyler Seguin – 2.4 (2.7); since the 2018-19 season finished, Seguin has been between 2.0 and 2.4 in each of the four seasons since.

Miro Heiskanen – 2.0 (2.1); he has been very consistent this season, but was between 1.0 and 1.3 in each of his first four years in the league.

Last season the leaders were Mason Marchment at 3.7 (1.6 this season) while in Florida, Robertson at 3.5, Pavelski at 3.2 and Hintz at 3.0.

Edmonton Oilers

Connor McDavid – 4.9 (5.4); this isn't McDavid's highest output as he was at 5.1 in 2020-21 when he had 105 points in 56 games that year.

Leon Draisaitl – 4.3 (4.8); over the last four seasons including this one, he has been between 3.7 and 4.3 with 4.1 being his previous high in both 2019-20 and 2020-21.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 3.6 (3.3); In the 11 seasons prior to this one, he had never had a year higher than 2.9. 

Zach Hyman – 3.6 (3.2); an interesting note on Hyman is that he didn't have a power play point in his first 250 NHL games but has 40 in the 219 games since. In the prior four seasons, he was between 2.0 and 2.4 but has broken out this year.

Evander Kane – 2.5 (2.9); he missed 32 games with a wrist injury and other issues so far this season. In the past six seasons including this one, he has been between 2.1 and 2.8 in each of them.

Klim Kostin – 2.2; he has only averaged 10:39 per night in 34 games this season, but has produced fairly well. With Evander Kane back in the lineup we will need to see how Kostin is deployed going forward.

Tyson Barrie – 2.1 (2.4); 2.0 appears to be the magic line for offensive defensemen and Barrie has been above that line in four of his past six seasons. It has to be noted that he has only averaged 18-19 minutes the past two seasons. 

Last season McDavid led the Oilers at 4.2 followed by Draisaitl at 3.7, Kane at 2.8, Nugent-Hopkins at 2.5 and Hyman at 2.2.

Los Angeles Kings

Kevin Fiala – 3.4 (3.3); over the past four seasons including this one he has been between 2.8 and 3.5.

Arthur Kaliyev – 2.7 (3.7); he has been out of the lineup since before Christmas and has missed 18 games this year. If his ice time ever increases from just over 12 minutes to about 15 or 16, he could be a player to watch.

Viktor Arvidsson – 2.6 (2.2); Over his past seven seasons, he has seen five of those years at either 2.6 or 2.7, with two off-seasons at 1.8.

Gabriel Vilardi – 2.6 (3.2); most NHL players have pretty consistent points per 60 minutes, but Vilardi has been all over the map in his first four seasons. He has gone from 3.3 (in 10 rookie games) to 1.7 and down to 1.2 last year and back up to 2.6 this season. I think he'll eventually settle in closer to this year from here on.

Samuel Fagemo – 2.5; he has only played nine NHL games this season while averaging just 7:51 per game.

Anze Kopitar – 2.3 (2.3); over the past 13 seasons including this one, he has been between 2.3 and 2.7 if we throw out a 2.0 and a 3.0 in two of those seasons.

Phillip Danault – 2.3 (2.3); since 2016-17, he has been between 1.6 and 2.3.

Alex Iafallo – 2.2 (only four games as he was injured and is out indefinitely); he has never had a season above 1.9 in his first five seasons.

Adrian Kempe – 2.1 (1.9); last season he was at 2.2 on his way to 35 goals and 19 assists in 78 games. 

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Last season Kevin Fiala was at 3.5 while with the Minnesota Wild, Arvidsson was at 2.6, Kopitar 2.4, Trevor Moore at 2.3.

Minnesota Wild

Kirill Kaprizov – 3.5 (3.3); last season Kaprizov was at 4.2 and has seen a slight drop off this season, but it has been offset with his ice time being at 20:49 this year compared to 19:06 last season.

Mats Zuccarello – 3.1 (2.9); he has found a consistency to his production over the past three years where he has been between 3.0 and 3.6.

Joel Eriksson Ek – 2.6 (1.9); he has seen his points per 60 go up in each of his past six seasons. He has gone from 1.0 to 1.1, then 1.8 and 1.9 and last season to 2.1 and finally to where he is at this season at 2.6 so far. 

Matt Boldy – 2.5 (2.3); his rookie season might have been a little high at 3.2 but he has seen his ice time increase this season to 17:46 from 15:22 per game.

Ryan Hartman – 2.2 (1.8); he's not that far off from last season where he was at 2.6, but his ice time has gone from 18:11 to 14:35 this year.

Calen Addison – 1.9 (1.6); he is only averaging 16:23 per game. If he can ever become a 20-22 minute defender he could get into the 55-60 point range one day.

Last season Kaprizov led the team with 4.2, Zuccarello was at 3.6, Boldy at 3.2 and Ryan Hartman at 2.6.

Nashville Predators

Thomas Novak – 3.1; he is a pretty surprising player to see at the top of the Predators list. In 27 games as a rookie last season he was only at 1.3, but has 11 points in 19 games while only averaging 11:18 of ice time per night. He is someone to keep an eye on.

Filip Forsberg – 2.9 (3.3); If we throw out the 4.0 he had last year and the 2.3 in 2016-17 he has been between 2.5 and 2.9 the other seven seasons of his career.

Matt Duchene – 2.7 (2.4); over his past 13 seasons, Duchene has had three off-seasons where he has produced only 1.4, 1.7 and 1.8. In the other 10 years he has produced between 2.2 and 3.5 with only two seasons above 3.0.

Jussi Parssinen – 2.5; he has some pretty impressive numbers for a rookie who is averaging 15:11 per game. Seven of his 21 points have been on the power play.

Cody Glass – 2.2; this year is an important one for Glass as he hasn't produced in 74 games over his first three seasons with only nine goals and 14 assists. He's proving this season that he can.

Roman Josi – 2.0 (1.5); since 2014-15, Josi was between 1.5 and 2.2 excluding the 2.8 he posted last season. When you play over 25 minutes per night like Josi does, he will put up some impressive numbers.

Last year the Predators were led by Forsberg at 4.0, Duchene at 3.5, Ryan Johansen at 2.9, then Roman Josi at 2.8.

San Jose Sharks

Erik Karlsson – 3.0 (3.0); the fact that Karlsson hasn't slowed down at all since mid-November is astonishing. He has had six NHL seasons above 2.0 before but all six are between 2.0 and 2.3.

Timo Meier – 2.8 (2.5); In 2018-19, Meier averaged 3.0 points per 60 and played 16:58 per night on his way to 30 goals and 36 assists in 78 games. Last year, he was at 3.1 per 60 but had 35 goals and 41 assists in 77 games but averaged 19:10 per night. 

Tomas Hertl – 2.7 (2.5); he has been fairly consistent over the past five seasons where he has been between 2.3 and 3.0.

Logan Couture – 2.6 (1.8); in his past 13 seasons, Couture has been the model of consistency by being between 2.3 and 2.8 in 12 of the years with one being at 1.8. 

Last season the leaders were Timo Meier at 3.1, Hertl and Couture at 2.3 while Karlsson was at 1.8.

Michael Eyssimont is a player to watch as he is currently at 2.0 after 29 games this season split between Winnipeg and San Jose. He has six points in his 10 games with the Sharks.

Seattle Kraken

Daniel Sprong – 3.7 (4.3); in 202 NHL games before this season, Sprong was never higher than 2.4 in a season. He is currently in rarified air and will come down at some point, but I have been saying that about the Kraken as a team, and it has yet to happen.

Jared McCann – 3.0 (2.5); he has been all over the map in his past four seasons including this one. He has gone from 2.1 to 3.5 to 2.5 and back to 3.0 so far this year. His true number probably falls in the higher twos.

Andre Burakovsky – 2.9 (3.1); his past four seasons including this one have all been between 2.8 and 3.3.

Jordan Eberle – 2.8 (2.6); over his past 13 seasons, Eberle has only been below 2.0 twice and has been between 2.5 and 3.0 six times.

Matty Beniers – 2.7 (1.9); Beniers played 10 games last season and had 3.2 pts/60 and has managed to continue close to that level in his first 47 games this season.

Ryan Donato – 2.5 (1.8); before this season, Donato was between 1.8 and 2.1 in his first four seasons. If he could get more playing time than 11:26 per night, he could become a 25-goal scorer in this league.

Yanni Gourde – 2.4 (1.6); in the previous five seasons including this one, Gourde has put up between 1.8 and 2.4 points per 60 in each year.  

Last season the leaders were Matty Beniers at 3.2 (played 10 games), Burakovsky at 2.8 while with Colorado, McCann at 2.5 and Oliver Bjorkstrand at 2.4 while with Columbus.

The Kraken has one of the deepest rosters in terms of production. They have 12 different forwards above 2.0 and defensemen Justin Schultz at 1.9 and Vince Dunn at 1.8.

St. Louis Blues

Jordan Kyrou – 3.3 (1.1); he showed tremendous promise in his first full season, three years ago when he had 2.6 points per 60 while playing 14:25 per game. Last season he played 16:35 at 3.7 and is now up to 18:15 at 3.3.

Pavel Buchnevich – 3.1 (1.6); since he entered the league in 2016-17 he has been pretty consistent with his first five years with the Rangers being between 2.2 and 2.8 before he moved to St. Louis and put up 3.4 last season.

Robert Thomas – 2.8 (2.0); aside from a horrible injury riddled season in 2020-21 (1.6), he has been between 2.2 and 3.4 in his other four seasons.

Vladimir Tarasenko – 2.7 (2.5); outside of his rookie season and 2020-21 where he only played 24 games, Tarasenko has been between 2.6 and 3.9 in the other nine seasons. He will be a difficult player to replace if the Blues trade him before he becomes unrestricted.

Brayden Schenn – 2.5 (3.1); Schenn hasn't had a season below 2.0 since 2013-14 and in the nine years since has been between 2.0 and 2.7 with one season at 3.2.

Ryan O’Reilly – 1.4 (1.0); O'Reilly hasn't had a season under 2.0 since 2010-11 and had been between 2.0 and 2.8 in 11 consecutive years before this season.

Last season the leaders were Tarasenko at 3.9, Jordan Kyrou at 3.7, Robert Thomas at 3.4, Pavel Buchnevich at 3.4, Schenn at 3.2 and Ivan Barbashev (1.8 this year) at 2.7.

Vancouver Canucks

Elias Pettersson – 3.7 (3.3); Pettersson had been between 2.6 and 3.1 in all of his prior four seasons. He has seen his ice time go to 19:51 this year after averaging about 18:30 before then.

Andrei Kuzmenko – 3.3 (2.9); if Kuzmenko could get some more ice time than 15:58 per game he could become a 40-goal, 80-point player in this league.

Bo Horvat – 3.2 (3.1); before this season, Horvat was either at 2.1 or 2.3 in each of his prior six seasons. He's never been in a free agent year before so perhaps he can maintain this level.

J.T. Miller – 2.7 (2.7); since his 2016-17 season, Miller has been between 2.4 and 2.7 over five years with two other seasons at 3.1 and 3.5.

Brock Boeser – 2.6 (2.8); aside from two years where he had 2.1, Boeser has been between 2.5 and 3.0 in his other five seasons. His ice time this season is averaging 16:45 per game down from the 18-19 minutes he was seeing over the prior four seasons.

Quinn Hughes – 2.4 (2.8); since entering the league in 2018-19, Hughes has been between 1.9 and 2.1 in each year before this season. 

Conor Garland – 2.0 (2.1); in the prior three seasons, Garland has been between 2.4 and 2.7, so this season has been a disappointment so far for him.

Last season the team was led by J.T. Miller at 3.5, Pettersson at 2.7, Garland 2.5, Mikheyev 2.4 while in Toronto and Horvat at 2.3.

Vegas Golden Knights

Jack Eichel – 2.8 (3.9); I was a little surprised that Eichel has never been above 3.1 in a year (he's reached exactly that number twice). He has been between 2.2 and 2.8 in his other six seasons, including this one.

Mark Stone – 2.7 (2.3); in his past nine seasons including this one, Stone has been between 2.4 and 3.1 in eight of those years and one at 3.5 in 2020-21.

Chandler Stephenson – 2.6 (3.1); over his past three seasons, he has been between 2.3 and 2.6 and has become a very consistent player for Vegas.

Jonathan Marchessault – 2.5 (2.5); in nine NHL seasons if we throw out the bottom (2.0) and the top (3.3), Marchessault has had seven years between 2.4 and 3.0.

William Karlsson – 2.2 (2.8); since being in Vegas for six seasons, he has had four of those years between 2.2 and 2.3 with one year at 1.7 and the other year at 3.0.

Reilly Smith – 2.2 (3.0); since coming to Vegas from Florida in the expansion draft before the 2017-18 season, Smith has been between 2.2 and 3.0 except for one season at 1.6 in 2020-21.

Last season the team was led by Marchessault at 3.0, Stone 2.7, Stephenson 2.5, Brett Howden (0.6 this year) 2.4, and Eichel and Reilly Smith at 2.3.

Winnipeg Jets

Nikolaj Ehlers – 4.0 (injured); Ehlers played four games early in the year and was injured and missed the next 36 games. In his prior seven seasons, his lowest year was 2.0 and his highest was 3.5 with the other five years being between 2.3 and 3.0.

Pierre-Luc Dubois – 3.3 (2.9); before this season, Dubois had played five years in the NHL and was between 1.8 and 2.5 in each of those years, with just one season below 2.0.

Kyle Connor – 3.3 (2.5); in his past six seasons, Connor has been very consistent being between 2.5 and 3.3 with this season and last being 3.3 and 3.2.

Blake Wheeler – 3.0 (2.5); In his past 13 seasons including this one, Wheeler has had one season at 2.0 and the other 12 have been between 2.4 and 3.3 with four years being at 3.0 or above.

Mark Scheifele – 2.6 (2.4); since the 2015-16 season, Scheifele has been between 2.8 and 3.2 which doesn't include the 2.6 he has so far this year.

Josh Morrissey – 2.5 (2.8); in his first six NHL seasons, Morrissey was between 0.8 and 1.4 with little indication that he was capable of having the type of season he's having so far this year. Will he maintain his 2.5 points per 60 minutes? Probably not, but he's probably still a lock to come in with 75-80 points this year.

Cole Perfetti – 2.5 (1.8); Perfetti played 18 games last season with 1.6 points per 60 and so far this season after 46 games he is at 2.5. He's averaging 14:58 per game, so he has a pretty good future when he moves into the top six.

Last season the team was led by Connor at 3.2, Scheifele 3.0, Ehlers 2.9, Wheeler 2.8 and Dubois at 2.3

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments, please leave below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 28 - 19:03 OTT vs CHI
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