Ramblings: Updates on Nichushkin and Byram; Bob and Knight Return; Theodore, Keller, Liljegren, and Others – February 7

Michael Clifford

2023-02-07

The month of January was a good one for the Colorado Avalanche. They went 8-5-0, good for 10th in points percentage across the league. They also finished 10th by expected goal share at 5-on-5, a big improvement over the weeks prior, and all this helped them climb into a playoff spot. The 2022 Stanley Cup champs are also getting healthy, as both Valeri Nichushkin and Bowen Byram are expected back this week:

We also got word on Sunday night that Gabriel Landeskog is still on track to start skating very soon. There is no timeline for him but if they can get him back in April so he can get a half-dozen games in before the playoffs start? This team is starting to get healthy at the right time and they still might make a splash at the trade deadline. The East might be deeper, but the West looks like it's getting its top contender back into shape and that should scare every team in the league. 

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On the topic of returns, Florida has both its goalies back as Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight both dressed for Monday night's home game against Tampa Bay. Bobrovsky started the game Monday night so we'll see if Knight can go on Thursday at home to San Jose. The Panthers only have two games over the next six days so not much here unless fantasy owners are looking for a single-day streamer against the Sharks on Thursday. Their next outing after that is Saturday at home to Colorado, probably not an ideal spot-start situation for fantasy players.

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Calgary had Jakob Pelletier on the second line for their game Monday night in New York:

Pelletier had 16 goals and 36 points in 33 AHL games this season, and 98 points in 99 career AHL contests.

The Flames are going to be a fascinating team to monitor over the next three weeks leading to the trade deadline. They clearly aren't getting what they want out of Jonathan Huberdeau, Elias Lindholm is on pace to score 16 fewer goals than last year, and Andrew Mangiapane's goals per game has fallen 60% from his three-year average. This team needs their under-performers to start average-performing, needs younger players like Adam Ruzicka and Pelletier to pick up a lot of slack, or they need to look to the trade market for more help on the wing. If Pelletier can really cement himself on the second line, it could change what Calgary does at the deadline. This is absolutely a situation to monitor not only for Pelletier's performance in a vacuum.

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Some bad news from Anaheim's game on Monday night:

I was watching the Florida game and Ducks information can be tough to come by, so there's nothing much further right now. We'll pass updates along when any become available.

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Ross Colton blocked a shot in Tampa's 7-1 blow out loss to Florida and left the game late. More on him, too, as we get the news. Aleksander Barkov also left the game off a blocked shots and he's been dealing with injury issues of his own this season. Not a great night on the injury front in this contest.

Matthew Tkachuk built off his All-Star game performance with a five-point night, scoring twice and assisting on two goals from Carter Verhaeghe, and one from Sam Bennett. The line combined for 12 points on 14 shots. That is pretty good, where I'm from.

Aaron Ekblad stuffed the scoresheet with two assists (one on the power play), three shots, a plus-2 rating, and a hit.

Andrei Vasilevskiy was in net for all seven goals, and 49 total shots against in a sluggish performance out of the break from his team.

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Goals from Kyle Palmieri and Mathew Barzal, combined with 25 saves on 26 shots, led to 2-1 Islanders win over the Flyers. New York's newest addition – Bo Horvat – had four shots and a pair of blocks in a little over 19 minutes in ice time.

Noah Dobson was in the lineup and assisted on Barzal's tally. He had a shot, a couple of blocks, and a hit in a solid all-around evening.

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Alexis Lafrenière scored in overtime to cap off a 5-4 comeback win for the New York Rangers over Calgary. The Flames scored two quick goals in the third but a goal from Mika Zibanejad sent it to overtime, setting up the young winger for the game-winner.

Zibanejad scored twice on eight shots, adding an assist and a block for good measure. Filip Chytil also scored twice, giving him 18 goals in 42 games.

Calgary's supposed third line had a good night as both Blake Coleman and Andrew Mangiapane had a goal and an assist, while Mikael Backlund had a pair of assists with a couple of hits.

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Vancouver erased a 4-1 deficit to send their game with New Jersey to overtime tied at four but a power-play goal from Jesper Bratt gave the Devils the extra point. That was Bratt's 20th goal of the season, and also tied his career-high in power-play points (18) in just 50 games. His fantastic season rolls on.

Dougie Hamilton had three assists in the win and is now just shy of a point-per-game status with 49 in 50. He is finally having the season fantasy owners have been waiting for.

Andrei Kuzmenko scored in the loss, his 22nd of the season. He and Elias Pettersson should still make a formidable duo without Bo Horvat in the lineup, though the power-play impact remains to be seen.

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Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy provided somewhat of an update on Mark Stone:

All this is to say: if Vegas can somehow make it to the Conference Final, Stone might be back around that time. Or he might not. And the team has to get that deep first. What we should probably take away from this is that Stone is, for all intents and purposes, done for the season.

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The NHL has returned from its All-Star break even if some teams are currently on their bye weeks. There is roughly one-third of the season left (a little over that, actually) so I thought it'd be a good time to take a look forward. There are always players to keep an eye on down the stretch whether it's looking for a turnaround from low levels of production, looking for a bigger role, looking for better underlying numbers, or a whole host of other reasons. There are always players/teams that we should be keeping tabs on, and the stretch run of the regular season is a great time to do it. Here are some players I'm flagging, from a fantasy perspective, for any number of reasons.

Travis Konecny

One of the surprises this season is looking to close out a very strong campaign. Konecny went into Monday night's game with career marks in goals per game, assists per game (tied with 2019-20), shots per game, and solid peripherals elsewhere. He has done it shooting 16%, sure, but he averaged 14.4% in his three-year stretch where he scored 24 goals each campaign. This isn't an extreme number. All the ice time is helping, and he's really driving play while seeing top competition:

There is a lot to like about his season, but it is an outlier compared to his six prior seasons. Nearing a peak at 25 years old and 400 games wouldn't be abnormal, so let's see a strong finish from the talented winger.

Jack Quinn

All told, it's been a good rookie season for the Buffalo flank. He has 20 points in 43 games skating less than 13:30 a night. That is good production for his minutes and though a sustained white-hot streak is necessary for serious Calder Trophy consideration, he looks to have a very bright future – quickly – for the Sabres.

This could belong to the entire second line of Quinn, Dylan Cozens, and JJ Peterka, but a strong finish from these players would be nice to see. Not only would it help Buffalo in their quest for a playoff position, but it would alleviate concerns heading into a summer that could be busy for the team. Cozens, Rasmus Asplund, and Tyson Jost are all RFA, and Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo (their captain) are both UFAs. On top of that, all of Owen Power, Casey Mittelstadt, Peyton Krebs, and Ramus Dahlin (among others) will be a year from needing another RFA deal, but will all be eligible for extensions. Long-term deals for Power, Dahlin, and Cozens alone could prove expensive. If the team bridges any (all) of them for a couple years, they'll be RFAs again when Quinn and Peterka need new deals. Having a lot of talent is a good thing, but Buffalo will need to do some finagling, and a great two months from Quinn (and Peterka) might change what they do elsewhere.

Shea Theodore

Mentioned earlier was the bit on Stone and Vegas needing to go deep into the playoffs. Theodore will have to perform like a monster if the team is going to have a shot at doing that. His 0.71 points per game isn't very far off from the 0.69 he did over the prior three season. He is having a very good season at both ends of the ice when he's been healthy, but he'll need to find another gear over the next nine weeks if the team not only wants to stay in a playoff spot but look primed for a deep playoff run.  

Vegas is 28th in goals per minute since Christmas. Theodore was out for much of that stretch. They lost Stone. Maybe they trade for some offensive help but for now, they have to make with what they have, and that includes Theodore. In a season where other veteran defensemen like Josh Morrissey, Brandon Montour, and Vince Dunn have found another level, Theodore will need to do the same. He is the guy to watch in Vegas, other than Jack Eichel.

Clayton Keller

Something I noticed when going through some Coyotes stats before their game last night: their top two lines are both above 50% by expected goal share at 5-on-5, and both lines are over 150 minutes played together. Without checking, it's hard to remember another time when Arizona had two lines like that. This is a team that is starting to piece together its future, even if the rewards are still years away.

Keller has seen a production drop from last season across the board, but he's still on pace for 30 goals and 67 points in a full year. That isn't bad for such a poor scoring environment, but his line with Nick Schmaltz and Barrett Hayton has shown promise. A good 30-game stretch from Keller would be nice to see as the Coyotes head into next season with the full rebuild a year from finishing and the real growth phase beginning.  

Quinton Byfield

It seems we sometimes get excited about a prospect and then forget about them if they're not an immediate superstar. Byfield has had injury issues, but he's been skating on the top line in Los Angeles for a few weeks now, and he does have five points in his last nine games. It isn't a massive number, but he's not getting a lot of ice time, and it was much worse production earlier this season. He has been seeing 15-16 minutes at times, which is nice to see, and the line itself is playing well. All is good for now.

This is still a very young player. He doesn't turn 21 until August. For reference, Jack Quinn, whom we talked about earlier, turns 22 in September. The Kings are in the thick of the playoff race and Byfield asserting himself offensively would be an immense dimension for this team. It would allow them to permanently leave Kevin Fiala on the third line with Gabriel Vilardi, giving them three scoring lines. It would also go a long way in easing the minds of dynasty players the world over. Let's see how the rest of this season goes for the second overall pick.

Timothy Liljegren

Among 152 defencemen with at least 900 minutes skated in the 2021-22 season, again from Evolving Hockey, Liljegren was fourth in expected goal impact, trailing only Charlie McAvoy, Jaccob Slavin, and Miro Heiskanen. His actual goal impact was lower, but still inside the 75th percentile of these 152 defencemen. Liljegren also finished inside the 90th percentile in points per minute at 5-on-5. It was an excellent season, but it was just 61 games. More was needed.

This season, his expected goals impact is less but still inside the 80th percentile. His actual goals impact rose, however, all the way to the 93rd percentile. It was basically a reversal from a year ago, but it is another 41 games of excellent hockey from Liljegren. His points per minute have suffered but gaining over two minutes per game in overall ice time (so far) has helped mitigate that impact.

For Toronto, it is all about the postseason. A year ago, we saw Bowen Byram really assert himself as a future (or current, really) top-pair blue liner. I think Liljegren is capable of showing the same. Let's see if he does it.

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