Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Although we've skated past the midpoint of the season, not all is what it seems when it comes to how players are likely to produce over the remainder of 2022-23. Let's try to look beneath the veneers and determine the real scoop for three players, who, for this edition of Goldipucks, are all rearguards: Miro Heiskanen, Mikhail Sergachev and Filip Hronek. Can your "spidey senses" tell you which of these three is too hot, too cold, and whose production is just right? Read on to find out. Stats are current as of the All-Star break.

Miro Heiskanen (48 games, 7G, 33A 129 SOG, 18 PPPts, 25:15 TOI, 3:01 PP, 63.1% PP%)

Selected third overall in 2017, Heiskanen was an NHL regular as a teen. Those who hoped he'd pay instant dividends however were disappointed when, for the past three seasons he was basically only a point every other game player. There was his run of 26 points in 27 Stanley Cup playoff games in 2020; but come regular season time, Heiskanen played tough minutes. Finally in 2022-23 John Klingberg is out of the picture, and Heiskanen is thriving. Can he keep up this pace? Yes, and I think he could even realistically improve further.

Let's start by revisiting that 2020 playoff performance, and what it means in terms of player comparables. If we look at a list of defensemen in the history of the NHL who, at any age, averaged 0.9 points per game or more in 20+ playoff games, we get only 13 others. Of them, all but two (Shea Theodore and Duncan Keith) had seasons – the majority of them multiple campaign – where they scored a point per game. Looking just at those who accomplished the playoff feat age 23 or under, the list is narrowed to Cale Makar, Adam Fox, and Al MacInnis, with two of the three having scored at a 90+ point pace and Fox seemingly poised to join the club sooner rather than later. Although it was just a 27-game snapshot, the company in which it puts Heiskanen not only legitimizes his current production but suggests he's capable of even better.

There's more to like when examining trends, as Heiskanen's TOI per game has risen with each quarter, yet his OZ%, which had averaged 51.1% over his prior four campaigns, is up dramatically to 59.4% for 2022-23. That not only puts him in the top 20 among all d-men, with only Erik Karlsson and the Colorado pairing of Cale Makar and Devon Toews having both a higher TOI per game and higher OZ% than Heiskanen. Yet again he finds himself on a list where the majority have scored – or this season are scoring – at a 90+ point pace. He's not only taking the ice a ton, but it's mainly in situations geared toward scoring. That's a recipe for fantasy success to the fullest extent.

Let's also look at his SOG rate, which prior to this season was stuck in the 2.2-24 range for every single campaign. Not bad, but not great either. For 2022-23 it's up to 2.7, but even that is deceiving as from Q2 onward it's been trending higher, with a stretch in which he had 3+ SOG in 12 of 14 games. Yet lo and behold his SH% is right at his career number, suggesting he's still taking high quality shots.

Heiskanen also might be tenth when it comes to overall blueline scoring; however, he's tied for fifth in multipoint games, with the average point per game rate of the four above him being 1.09 versus his 0.83. That also means he had more than his share of games with zero points, with his rate being 38%, and those with more points than him having a lower average rate of 33.2%. What's happening is Heiskanen is starting to show explosiveness but only needs to gain consistency in order to be among the truly best of the best.

What about other metrics? His IPPs are right at where they have been, on the one hand legitimizing how far he's risen but also showing there's room for even more growth. His secondary assist rate is under 50%, which is exactly what one wants to see from a high scoring rearguard. So all these check out.

There's one more area we haven't covered, and that's 5×5 team shooting percentage when Heiskanen is on the ice. Despite his scoring explosion, that rate has only grown modestly to 8.7%, ranking him outside of the top 75 among rearguards. Like his IPPs, this seems to be a lagging indicator – that is, something which, despite his improvement, has not yet kept pace. In time it too should rise, and with that, his scoring even further.

Lastly, although Heiskanen does take the ice for the lion's share of his team's PP minutes, at 63.1%, that puts him barely in the top-20 among d-men. That too seems to be on the rise, as Heiskanen saw less than 60% of his team's PP time in 19 of his first 27 games this season, but only four total times since then. Dallas seems to be awakening to the fact Heiskanen is a PP weapon, and using him more often as a result. Lest there be any doubt that more is better, in the 14 games where Heiskanen took the ice for less than 55% of his team's man advantage minutes, he has a grand total of zero PPPts.

The long brewing question as to whether or not Heiskanen would rise to the occasion if deployed in a more offensively favorable manner has been answered with a resounding yes. But we might only be scratching the surface, as I see him being able to rise to the level of the likes of Victor Hedman and John Carlson, two number-one defencemen who also were unleashed to pile on points. But he might even have a bit more Cale Makar sprinkled in, as after all Makar was a comparable in two separate situations. I think by the time 2022-23 ends Heiskanen should be threatening the point per game mark, so thus far he's been TOO COLD, and gets a rating of 2.25, as going forward he should be counted on as a ~80-85 point d-man, with potential to rise to 90 if Dallas stays an offensive powerhouse and he gets even more time on the PP.

Mikhail Sergachev (46 games, 6G, 27A, 84 SOG, 15 PPPts, 23:56 TOI, 2:21 PP, 42.5% PP%)

Originally a ninth overall pick, Sergachev was dealt by Montreal as a centerpiece of the deal that saw Montreal acquire Jonathan Drouin. Reaction to the deal was not positive, as many feared this could turn out even worse than when the Habs dealt Ryan McDonagh only to see him become a top pairing rearguard. What ended up happening is Sergachev settled into a pattern of point per every other game production, leading some to wonder if he was overhyped. Fast forward to the first half of 2022-23, and no one was wondering anymore, as Sergachev was thriving, seeing first line PP time and displacing Victor Hedman as the top option for blueline offense in Tampa. With Hedman rising from the ashes and Sergachev cooling, we wonder again – who's the real Sergachev? The answer is not only weren't we seeing it earlier this season, but his numbers still haven't fully come back to earth.

Hold on – am I really going to try to convince you that Sergachev, who is in the midst of a slump that has seen him score only six points in his last 18 games is somehow still too hot? Read on, and I think by the time I'm done you'll see why it's the correct label.

Let's start with the power play. Yes, Sergachev ceded his spot on PP1 to Hedman, which certainly is not ideal, but there was a problem even when he was seemingly firing on all cylinders. For 2022-23, Sergachev has 15 PPPts, which places him in the top 20 for defensemen. Beyond the fact that 12 those PPPts came in his first 24 games (meaning three in his subsequent 22), would you care to guess how many PPGs were scored while he was on the ice this season? Only 17. Yes, Sergachev somehow managed to have an IPP on the PP of 88.2%. To give you an idea of just how high that is, if we look at IPP on the PP league wide at any position, just one other skater has more than six PPPts and a higher IPP on the PP, and that's Kevin Fiala. Even the best of the best Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov are in the mid-80s. And just five defensemen who have at least ten PPPts are at 75% or higher, and those are proven scorers like Roman Josi, Dougie Hamilton, Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy and Tony DeAngelo. All those PPPts Sergachev banked early in the season? Many were unsustainable, making it so he should be doing even worse than he is now.

Let's also not look past that Sergachev is now right at his 400-game breakout threshold, yet he isn't scoring anymore. If a defenseman was truly breaking out, he'd force the issue, much like Josh Morrissey or Brandon Montour, both of whom are just past the 400-game mark. Yes, the Jets don't have someone like Victor Hedman to loom large; however, they do have Neal Pionk, who's no slouch, and Florida has Aaron Ekblad. But neither Morrissey not Montour have not taken their feet off the gas pedal, unlike Sergachev, who looks no better now than he did in his point per every other game seasons.

It doesn't get better the deeper we dive. Sergachev, who never really fired lots of pucks on net, is still under two per SOG per game; and when he was on fire, his rate was actually even worse than it has since been. In fact, he amassed 22 points in his first 21 games despite taking only 35 SOG, for a rate of 1.66 per game. Looking at the last ten seasons, the highest scoring rate for any defenseman who had a SOG rate of 1.7 or less for a seasons was 0.7 by Ryan Suter in 2019-20, with only a total of 12 other d-men having a rate of 0.6 or higher. How then did Sergachev get those 22 points? Easy – half came on the PP, which we saw from above was unsustainable.

Looking at Sergachev's other stats, his secondary assist percentage is similar to his previous seasons, and his overall IPP is higher, but mainly due to his PP IPP. His ES IPP actually is a bit down versus other seasons, stressing how beholden he is (was?) to PPPts. His 5×5 team shooting percentage is a career low at 8.9, but in prior seasons it ranged from 9.1 to 9.48, so the difference is negligible.

What about player comparables for Sergachev based on what he did prior to 2022-23? In each of his first five full seasons his scoring rate ranged from 0.4 to 0.55. While no one else did so in each of their first five, many did so four times, most recently Heiskanen, Filip Hronek (more on him below), Colton Parayko, Aaron Ekblad, and Torey Krug. But prior to those five there were Alex Goligoski, Mattias Ohlund, Robert Svehla, Dmitri Mironov, and Eric Weinrich. So if we look at solely the first group, there's reason for optimism; however, the second group has guys who never really broke out fantasy-wise. So the jury is out in terms of what the future might hold based on how Sergachev fared in the past.

It seems like a lot longer ago than just a couple of months when Sergachev was the talk of the fantasy world. But since then he's not only come back to earth, but actually played worse than he had in prior seasons. If his early season stats checked out, rather than being bolstered by unsustainable PP scoring, then I could see him morphing into a Morrissey or Montour. For now Sergachev was, and still remains, TOO HOT, and gets a rating of 7.0. I see him as still the point per every other game d-man he's been. Maybe down the road when Hedman is out of the picture he could do more; but by then who knows how good Tampa will be as a team, such that it's more difficult to see Sergachev making a leap.

Filip Hronek (48 games, 7G, 26A, 110 SOG, 13 PPPts, 21:53 TOI, 2:27 PP, 44.0% PP%)

Speaking of players who had similar outputs to start their career, there's Hronek, who was in the NHL to stay two seasons after being picked in the second round. What did he do in his first four seasons? Oh, just have scoring rates of 41, 38, 49 and 40 points – talk about consistency! Also, like Sergachev, Hronek emerged red hot for 2022-23 with 24 points in his first 25 games. He's cooled off since then, but still is at a scoring pace well above his norm. Is he on his way to taking things up a notch, production-wise? Signs point to yes, although not on the order of what we saw earlier. Instead, he seems now to be right where he should be.

With Hronek, we see his SOG rate, although still not sky high, has climbed a good bit. And it's stayed right where it was even after he's cooled. He is shooting a tad higher than his career best in SH%; however, it's still not even in the top 60 for rearguards who've played in more than 20 total games this season. What's more – his PP SOG rate is way up, even as his percentage of PP minutes is in neutral versus last season. In fact, he had more PP SOG by game 46 than he did in all 78 games last season. Plus, the Wings finally have the depth to field a capable second unit PP, as in 2021-22 once you got past Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Lucas Raymond, there were the likes of Filip Zadina, Pius Suter, and Robbi Fabbri. For 2022-23 though, there are Dominik Kubalik and Andrew Copp, plus the upstart Jonathan Berggren. As a result, Hronek's increased PP production is sustainable.

It is true that Hronek's ice time and offensive zone starting percentage have both dropped in the past two seasons. He's scoring nevertheless, buoyed at least in part by there being an improved team surrounding him. Plus, as Moritz Seider becomes more acclimated to the NHL, his OZ% will go down and Hronek's will likely uptick. Also, despite these trends, if we look at Hronek's 5×5 team shooting percentage, it's more than double what it was just two seasons ago, yet still a reasonable 9.9%. Here as well it's likely a case of there finally being a supporting case to help buoy scoring. And the data confirms this, as prior to this season the Wings had scored an average of 2.46 goals per game, and had an average PP conversion rate of 15.1%. This season those numbers are 3.00 and 20.1%, for gains of 20% and 33%. So it's not surprising to see Hronek reaping the benefits. The tide is indeed rising, and Hronek's boat is getting a nice lift from it – one that should be sustainable.

Looking at Hronek's other metrics though, all are basically in line with prior seasons. Yes, his overall IPP is down slightly; however, his IPP on the PP is barely above the average of what it'd been the prior three seasons. If it had been elevated – as with Sergachev – then I'd have some concerns. But no – it's well within reason. His secondary assist rate, although slightly above 50%, is below his cumulative average of what it's been over the past three seasons. As far as other metrics, Hronek's story checks out.

Yes, the majority of Hronek's PPPts came in games when he saw over 50% of his team's PP minutes; however, he's still fared well otherwise. And as noted, the depth of the Red Wings as a team makes the second unit less of a consolation prize, especially since the Red Wings are one of very few teams where no defenseman has taken the ice for even 60% of their PP minutes on the whole. That means Hronek, even if permanently relegated to the second unit, is still seeing meaningful PP time that should continue to positively impact his scoring.

Let's also not forget that Hronek, despite being in his fifth season, won't hit his 400 game breakout threshold until the end of 2023-24 or beginning of 2024-25. While some might think that's inconsequential – well tell that to poolies who are fortunate to own the likes of Morrissey and Montour, both of whom are just past their breakout thresholds this season and are thriving.

If I had a nickel for every time I used the expression "a rising tide lifts all boats" in one of my columns I could probably buy rinkside seats at any NHL arena. But perhaps never more so than with Hronek has it truly applied. Yes, he's done some improving of his own, mostly in the SOG and PP departments; however, what has mainly happened is the team around him is finally making some offensive noise, bolstering Hronek's stats in the process. Despite the looming presence of Moritz Seider, Hronek should still feature prominently in the plans for the Wings, and as such his stats for 2022-23 thus far are JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 6.0, as I see him as a 50-55 point d-man on a steadily improving team.

***********************

Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag still has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.