Last week we kicked off the two-part look back miniseries by reviewing those players who have beaten their early season expectations. This week we will tackle those who have disappointed us and it is certainly an interesting list.

To gather the data, I pulled Dobber's point pace projections from the beginning of the year (available in the Dobber Guide every year), and then compared that with a player's current point pace from a Big Board report from the Reports Page.

We are going to be looking at straight-up change in point paces. This way of looking at it will capture the players who have literally put up the highest point total over their expected number. In the following table, moving left to right, we have basic player information, their preseason point per game projection, and current point per game pace, and then finally the difference between the two.

We clearly can't start this section with anyone other than Jonathan Huberdeau. Huberdeau was coming off 115 points in 80 games in 21-22. Sure he was going to a new team and it seemed pretty unlikely he was going to hit those career highs again, but I don't know anyone who had him pegged for his current 56-point pace. The worse news is there really isn't a light at the end of the tunnel here. He has lost two and a half minutes of ice time overall, down below 17 minutes overall for the first time since 2014-15 (where incidentally he also finished with a 56-point pace). He has his lowest power-play role (in both total time and percent of the team time) since 2016-17. He is currently matching a career low for shots per game at 1.6. His shooting percentage is right in line with his career average too so it isn't like he is due better luck there either.

The bright side? I suppose his team shooting percentage, and his point participation numbers are a little low compared to his Florida days. So if he was still in Florida I would say that his linemates should be scoring slightly more often and he should be getting in on slightly more of the goals scored while he is on the ice. The problem is that brings him up to maybe a 65 point pace? And that assumes that we should be even considering his Florida numbers at all. He is surrounded by an entirely new cast of characters and playing in an entirely new coaching system. To me this feels much more like setting a new baseline than variance that is likely going to regress to recent history. This is one of the most remarkable cases of single season falls I can remember and quite frankly I don't see any reason that something resembling this pace shouldn't continue for the remainder of the season.

There are a number of other players here that I think make this list because they were a bit of a question mark going into the season. Either like Oliver Bjorkstrand, they were headed to a new team so usage was a bit of a question, or they are young players like Seth Jarvis, Cole Sillinger etc. who could be taking a step forward.

The other name that really stands out to me on this list is Ryan O'Reilly. Just two seasons ago, O'Reilly was finishing his third consecutive 70-plus-point pace season. 21-22's 61-point pace was certainly a disappointment, but we identified some reasons for that  (St. Louis spreading out the offense a bit more was a big reason) but a 35 point pace? Not sure anyone saw that coming either. Like with Huberdeau, I am not seeing anything that points to something much better coming in the future. If we compare his numbers to those 70 plus point pace seasons, he is down about two minutes of overall ice time and averaging his lowest total per game since 2010-11. He is seeing the smallest (by total time, and percent of team time) power-play role since 2010-11, and the largest short-handed role of his career. His shot rates are also amongst the lowest of his career. While his team shooting percentage is a bit low, his personal shooting percentage is high if anything. His point participation numbers are a touch low compared to those top years, but his role with the team is also dramatically different (as highlighted by those time on ice numbers) this year so there is no guarantee of a rebound. I am not sure how else to say this, but O'Reilly is on a 35-point pace and a lot of it looks real. Best case here is maybe time away to heal his broken foot will result in a reinvigorated end to the season and a rebound of time on ice and deployment. Am I banking on it? Definitely not.

We are going to deviate from last week's structure a bit as ordering players by the percent of preseason projection essentially gives us the same list as above this time. Instead I wanted to take a minute and highlight a couple honorable mentions In Patrick Kane and Bryan Rust.

Patrick Kane's fall from grace has not been quite as dramatic as Huberdeau's but it's a similar story. His 62-point pace is just a touch better than Huberdeau's and he fell from the mid-90s not from 115. The major difference at this stage between Huberdeau and Kane is that Kane looks like he deserves better. He is still putting up over three shots per game, is getting his usual power-play time, and getting around 20 minutes a night overall. His expected goal numbers are actually up a little from last season. As you might imagine given all of those numbers look decent he is uncharacteristically low in his personal and team shooting percentages, and his points participation numbers. All things being equal then we should expect a better second half for Kane. The one caveat here is that there are rumors of Kane playing through injury. We might legitimately expect things like his shooting percentage and IPP to be lower if he is having trouble getting to his usual spots, or keeping up with the play while playing through an injury.

Bryan Rust is a bit of a mixed bag here. He is getting less time both at even strength and on the power play. He has been moved around the lineup a bit since the arrival of Rickard Rakell at the end of last season, and it appears to be taking a bit of a toll. That being said, his personal shooting percentage and his point participation numbers are a bit low, so even with second line deployment and inconsistent power-play usage he still should have put up a couple of more points. I would expect more of the same for the second half – inconsistent deployment between the top two lines and turns on the top power-play, but hopefully the results are slightly improved.

That is all for this week

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