Eastern Edge: Injury Rebounds From Palat, Lundell, Rielly, and More

Brennan Des

2023-02-14

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll look at recent production from players who've missed time with injury this season.

Ondrej Palat

A groin injury kept the 31-year-old forward sidelined from late October to early January. After such a long layoff, he needed some time to ease his way back into the lineup. He went pointless in his first four games back, seeing just 13 minutes of action a night. Since then, he's tallied 10 points in 10 outings, skating 17 minutes per game. Over the last three games, Palat has been skating on New Jersey's top power-play unit. He has two points with the man advantage this season – both of which came during this recent run of increased opportunity. His expanded PP role is partially explained by the absence of Jack Hughes, who's currently sidelined with an upper-body injury. With that being said, in the last game Hughes played (February 6th against the Canucks), both he and Palat were skating on the top unit. So, there's definitely a world where Palat sticks with the top group even after Hughes returns to the lineup. In that scenario, Tomas Tatar would likely fall to the second unit.

Anton Lundell

A combination of illness and injury kept Lundell sidelined for a few weeks in December, causing him to miss nine games. He struggled upon returning to the lineup, tallying just two points in his first 11 games back. During that stretch, he skated 15 and a half minutes a night – a 90-second drop from his average ice time before getting sick and injured. As was the case for other players on this list, Lundell's initial decline in production was likely a side effect of reacclimating to the speed of NHL games after an extended absence. Although he struggled offensively in his first few games back, he's managed nine points in his 12 latest outings. During that time, he's seen nearly 18 minutes of action per game. Recently, he's been skating on Florida's top line beside Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. Currently rostered in just 24% of Yahoo leagues, Lundell should provide sneaky value down the stretch as most will be turned off by his underwhelming overall production. Although he needed some time to ease his way back from injury, he's in good form right now.

Kyle Palmieri

The 32-year-old forward got off to an unremarkable start this season, tallying nine points in his first 20 outings. He was sidelined with an injury after that and proceeded to play just one game over the next two months. Since returning to the lineup on a more permanent basis in late January, Palmieri has seven points in eight games. It's worth noting that half of those games were played before Bo Horvat was traded to the Islanders. In those first four without Horvat, Palmieri had five points – skating 18 minutes a night and seeing 62% of New York's total time with the man advantage. In four outings with Horvat in the lineup, Palmieri has two points, averaging 16 minutes of ice time and holding a 32% share of the team's total power-play time.

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Now we probably shouldn't put too much stock into such small samples, but it wouldn't be far-fetched to suggest that Horvat's arrival in New York could have a negative effect on members of the Islanders' supporting cast. The Isles have committed to Horvat long term, so it makes sense to prioritize his success and find the right fit for him. Such a process may result in less favourable deployment for someone like Palmieri in the short term. However, there's also a chance Palmieri gets to ride shotgun on a line with Horvat and Mathew Barzal, which could help boost his production. Because of this uncertainty, it'll be worth monitoring New York's line combinations over the next little while. The Islanders have been struggling to score recently, averaging just 2.26 goals per game since 2023 began. Only the Blue Jackets (2.22 goals/game) have scored less during that span. New York will likely test different line combinations over the next little while, hoping to spark their offense and make a push for the playoffs. Fluctuating line combinations will likely result in fluctuating fantasy values for complementary pieces like Palmieri, as well as guys like Anders Lee and Josh Bailey.

Morgan Rielly

Rielly had a strong start to the campaign, tallying 16 points in his first 20 games (0.80 points/game) before suffering a knee injury in late November. After sitting out for about a month, he returned to the lineup and posted just five points in his first 15 games back (0.33 points/game). Though there weren't drastic differences in his deployment pre- and post-injury, it's worth noting that his share of power-play time dropped from 64% to 55% between that first and second stretch. He posted 0.30 power-play points per game before getting injured, and 0.13 PPP/game in his first 15 appearances after the injury. Fortunately, he's turned things around recently, registering a point in each of his last four outings. It would seem he just needed some time to ease his way back into the lineup after being on the shelf for so long.

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