Tuesday Game Picks: Carolina Can Crush Caps; Hamilton’s Shooting Prowess

Will McLean

2023-02-14

We are back with another Tuesday edition of Game Picks, where we give out a Gold, Silver, and Bronze selection every Tuesday during the NHL season. For Valentine's Day, the NHL is gifting us a Tuesday evening with nine fantastic games, which gives us plenty of options to find some winning bets. I've done my best to research each of the games and I think I have found some winners. The three matchups I am most interested in are the Carolina Hurricanes @ Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils @ Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Boston Bruins @ Dallas Stars games. Hopefully, I can get back on track and sweep the board tonight.

Below I highlight my Gold, Silver, and Bronze selections for tonight's games. Last Tuesday was another rough day that saw me go (1 – 2), bringing my season record to a subpar (14 – 19).

Gold Selection

Carolina Hurricanes @ Washington Capitals – Pick: Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (-155)

The Carolina Hurricanes (34-10-8) are undoubtedly one of the best teams in the NHL, whereas the Washington Capitals (28-21-6) are just average, I fully expect the Canes to prove that to be true tonight. The Hurricanes have been fantastic all season long and have been even better as of late, while the Capitals on the other hand have been a little bit worse lately. The Hurricanes are averaging 3.31 goals for and 2.69 goals against per game this season, and over their last 10 games, those numbers have only gotten better. Over these past 10 games, the Canes are averaging 3.90 goals for and 2.60 goals against per game, scoring over half a goal per game more than their average while also allowing slightly less is impressive. The Hurricanes strong play over that span resulted in an (8-1-1) record while also leading the NHL with 17 points. While the Capitals record (5-5) over their last 10 isn't terrible, their goals for and against have taken a hit. Over this span, the Capitals are averaging only 2.4 goals per game, over half a goal less than their season average of 3.05. They are also allowing slightly more goals per game over their last 10 with an average of 3.10 goals against per game as opposed to their season average of 2.82 goals against. Considering the Capitals have been struggling to score goals lately, playing without one of the greatest goal-scorers of all time in Alex Ovechkin tonight won't help that problem. Speaking of Ovechkin, the Capitals lost their lone game without him this season, they also lost four of five without him last season. Considering how much better the Hurricanes have been playing than the Capitals lately, and that the Capitals will be without Ovechkin, I expect the Hurricanes to outclass the Capitals tonight.

Silver Selection

New Jersey Devils @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Pick: Dougie Hamilton Over 3.5 Shots (-101)

The Columbus Blue Jackets have a terrible time trying to suppress shots, while Dougie Hamilton will take any shot he can, making this appear to be a perfect matchup for Hamilton to rack up the shots. This season Hamilton is averaging 3.58 shots per game, and over his last 10 games he is averaging 4.0 shots, a nice jump up from his season average. His uptick in shot production has led to him recording four or more shots in eight of his last 11 games, and in five of seven road games. In his one game versus the Blue Jackets this season he recorded five shots. Speaking of the Blue Jackets, they allow an average of 35 shots against per game, the second most in the NHL. They also allow the second most shots to opposing defensemen, it doesn't get much better than that for Hamilton. Look for Hamilton to get a ton of chances to shoot the puck tonight, and don't be surprised if he gets five or more.

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Bronze Selection

Boston Bruins @ Dallas Stars – Pick: Under 6 (-126)

Tonight's game between the Boston Bruins and Dallas Stars is a matchup of the two best defensive teams in the NHL and I expect it to be a low-scoring affair. This season the Bruins are only allowing an average of 2.12 goals against per game, the fewest in the NHL. And over their last 10 games, they've gotten even better, allowing only 1.90 goals against per game. The Stars are allowing an average of 2.54 goals against per game, only the Bruins allow fewer. The Stars, just like the Bruins, have gotten even better over their last 10 games, over this stretch they are allowing only 2.0 goals against per game. What has helped each of these teams keep the puck out of the net over this 10 game stretch has been their tremendous penalty kills. The Stars penalty kill has been running at 89.3% over that span, while the Bruins is rolling at 85.3% over the same stretch. Considering how good these teams have been defensively as of late, as well as all season,  it's no surprise that they've both been in a lot of low-scoring games. The Stars have played in eight straight games, and 13 of 16, where there were five or fewer total goals. The Bruins, respectively, have seen six of their last nine games have five or fewer goals. Seeing as how good these teams are defensively, and the fact that they both have Vezina caliber goalies in Jake Oettinger and Linus Ullmark, expect goals to be very hard to come by tonight.

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