Ramblings: Updates on DeBrusk, Forsberg, Tomasino, Makar, and Steel; Svechnikov, Kopitar, Oettinger, Hayes, Hanifin, and More – February 14

Michael Clifford

2023-02-14

Though Boston had to deal with injuries earlier in the season, they easily overcame those and have largely been healthy since. That ended when Jake DeBrusk was injured in the Winter Classic and was set to be out a month. He was back in a normal jersey at practice on Monday:

The team would say after practice that he's doubtful for Tuesday's game in Dallas but more likely for Thursday's game in Nashville. DeBrusk had 16 goals and 30 points in 36 games before the injury, pacing for easily the best season of his career. We'll see if he can pick up where he left off.

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Following that brutal injury to Ottawa goalie Anton Forsberg over the weekend, we got an update:

All told, it seems things could have been a lot worse. If he's ready for offseason training before the playoffs even finish, he should be all-systems-go for 2023-24.

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Sam Steel was a healthy scratch on Monday night for Minnesota:

Steel had been Kirill Kaprizov's centre for a few months now but things have been dire of late. Minnesota went into Monday night's game at home to Florida as the lowest-scoring team in the league at 5-on-5 since Christmas (seriously, last in goals per minute at 5-on-5 over their last 19 games). Steel had zero points and just 11 shots in his last 10 games, skating over 17 minutes a night. Something had to change, so here we are. We have to wonder how long it will be until they make a splashy trade or recall Marco Rossi, or both? Bill Guerin said not to expect Rossi in the near-term but I can’t imagine they can hold off much longer.

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Good news on the Cale Makar front:

Even in a non-contact jersey, that he’s skating after the brutal hit to the head he took last week is a good sign for Makar.

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Philip Tomasino was recalled by Nashville:

Tomasino has 64 points 67 career AHL games with 32 in 38 this season alone. He is someone the Predators are hoping can give them a boost needed for a playoff push over the final two months.

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In one of the wilder games of the season, Ottawa was mostly sleepwalking through their home game against Calgary on Monday night, trailing 3-1 with under 2:30 left on the clock. But goals 46 seconds apart from Drake Batherson and Alex DeBrincat sent it to overtime, setting up Tim Stützle for the overtime winner and a 4-3 final. It capped a four-point game for the young centre, bringing him to 53 points in 48 games. He also set a career-high with 23 goals and still has 31 games remaining. Brady Tkachuk had the fourth Senators goal as both he and DeBrincat had a tally and a helper each.

Dillon Dube scored twice in the loss, giving him 33 points on the campaign and his highest single-season mark. Tyler Toffoli also had a marker and an apple in the loss.

Mads Sogaard stopped 34 of 37 shots for his second career win.

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Happy Valentine's Day! It is likely not a day most fantasy hockey players care about but it does provide us with an opportunity for a themed Ramblings, and there's not much we like more around these parts than a themed Ramblings when there are only a handful of games.

In honour of today, then, we are going to write a brief love letter to a dozen NHLers. Is it a bit weird for a 36-year-old to do this? Maybe! All the same, we're going to cover three players from each division for a variety of reasons. Let's get to it with data from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.

Patrice Bergeron

He may not be pacing for a great fantasy season – 29 goals, 60 points – but that doesn't mean Bergeron isn't having a great season overall. The team is controlling over 65% of the expected goal share with him on the ice, leading the league's forwards (min. 500 minutes at 5-on-5). The opposition has also scored fewer than one goal per 60 minutes against Boston with Bergeron on the ice at 5-on-5. His play should have him in line for another Selke Trophy, or at least among the top nominations. Oh, he turns 38 years old this summer. We are seeing a special, special season from him and it's hard to not love it.

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Tage Thompson

There has been a lot of digital ink spilled on Thompson, by myself and others, so we won't go too long here. He was a guy that I had high hopes for once he started showing his turnaround last season, and here we are. Even a scoring slowdown since Christmas has him with nine goals and 19 points in his last 19 games. It's hard not to be enamoured with watching him play hockey – he's one of the most exciting players in the league, and worth every penny of his extension (and then some).

Jake Walman

It hasn't been great production points-wise lately  with seven in his last 20 contests, but Walman is averaging over 2.5 shots, two blocks, and one hit per game in that span. He has shown multi-cat prowess since returning from injury and garnering a bigger role. He has gone from after-thought in St. Louis to over 20:30 a night spanning his last 10 games. It is hard not to love keeping the faith in a player and having that player start to reach their potential, even as Walman turns 27 years old next week. (Walman was not in the lineup on Monday night, by the way. He is day-to-day.)

Dmitry Orlov

On the topic of players stepping up in case of injuries, how about Dmitry Orlov? Washington has gotten 81 total games this season from the quintet of T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, Connor Brown, and John Carlson. How does Orlov respond? Evolving Hockey has him with his best expected goals-for impact in three years (and second highest of his career) all while getting mostly defensive zone starts against tough competition:

Orlov hasn't skated under 20 minutes in a game since returning from his own injury in December and has averaged over 24 minutes a night in his last 10 contests. Easy to love a guy stepping up in such a big way for a team hoping to add another Stanley Cup.

Kevin Hayes

My initial reaction to seeing Kevin Hayes going to the All-Star Game over Travis Konecny was confusion, but once we saw Hayes's nephew with him at the Game itself, it was clearly the only choice that could be made. Hayes had an awful 2021-22 season mixed with injury/poor play that was overshadowed by the passing of his brother. He has had a marvelous rebound season and love goes out to him and his family as they continue to move forward.  

Andrei Svechnikov

Top-3 draft picks will always carry a lot of hype, and Andrei Svechnikov is no exception. He had a 20-goal season in his rookie year and since then has averaged 29 goals and 41 assists per 82 games since, adding roughly three shots and two hits per game. Since 2007, he's one of five forwards with 5000 minutes played through their age-22 season and at least 1 goal per 60 minutes, 1.5 assists per 60 minutes, and 10 shots per 60 minutes. The other four are David Pastrnak, Jack Eichel, Taylor Hall, and Tyler Seguin. Add in the hits and we may have a unicorn of a forward and he's still not in his prime.

Evan Rodrigues

Injuries will likely keep him from career-best marks, but Rodrigues's 82-game paces this year with Colorado are for 23 goals, 53 points, 261 shots, and 16 PPPs, which would all be career-best marks. He leads all Colorado forwards in expected goals impact at 5-on-5, ranking in the 85th percentile of the league (or a full standard deviation above average). He is fourth among the team's forwards in points per minute, trailing Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Valeri Nichushkin. He might finally cash in this summer as a UFA and his stick-to-itiveness post-Buffalo is something to be admired.

Jake Oettinger

One thing that is very hard for highly-touted goalies to do is live up to expectations. Any goalie taken in the first round is expected to be a future top-end starter. Jake Oettinger has looked every bit the part so far in his three seasons: a .918 save percentage (Juuse Saros and Andrei Vasilevskiy have a .920), ranking fourth in high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5, trailing only Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, and Ville Husso, and the seventh-most goals saved above expected (GSAx). Per GSAx/60, his rate his five times higher than Thatcher Demko's and 10 times higher than Jacob Markstrom's. All this excludes his superhuman effort in the 2022 playoffs. Oettinger has arrived, and we love it.

Mark Scheifele

This could have gone to Connor Hellebuyck but there's a certain amount of respect to be given to Scheifele. There has been a lot of upheaval in Winnipeg going back to the Dustin Byfuglien/Evander Kane dust-up that seems to have persisted ever since, and Scheifele just keeps producing. He is on pace for his first sub-point-per-game season in seven years but it's all assists, and mostly secondaries that are hurting: 0.39 second assists/60 this season, and that is less than half his three-year rate of 0.81. Doubling his secondary assist total (7) would still have him below that three-year average but over a point per game. It's just a bit unlucky but it's hard to argue with his 32 goals, too.

Noah Hanifin

It has been a down year for a lot of Flames players, but we do have to recognize Noah Hanifin. He needs just six more blocks for a career-high of 90 (he's on pace for 131, actually), he's pacing to tie his career-high in hits (87), and he's also on pace for a career-high in shots (190). He already has his second-highest 5-on-5 point total of his last four years and would come close to last season's mark if his shooting percentage were to normalize. Despite a decline all around him, Hanifin has still been excellent even with a big PP production drop.

Eeli Tolvanen

Tolvanen was a player I had pencilled into Nashville's top-6 at the start of the season in anticipation of a breakout. He might have been in a fight with Philip Tomasino for ice time but he would start scratching his fantasy upside. He has started scratching his fantasy upside, but it's in Seattle thanks to being lost on waivers. Since getting to the Kraken, he has had a positive expected goals impact thanks to stellar defence, posting nine goals, 12 points, 45 shots, and 30 hits in 19 games. Even if he were shooting 10% instead of 20%, he'd be pacing for around 20 goals in a full season. He hasn't quite reached his ceiling, but he's on his way, and it's easy to love him finding his spot in the league.

Anze Kopitar

He isn't quite Bergeron West because Kopitar's defence has slid over the last few seasons, but he's second among Kings forwards in expected goals-for impact at even strength this year. League-wide, his rate compares to names like Aleksander Barkov, Martin Necas, and Pierre-Luc Dubois. That focus on offence has him tied for his third-highest goal rate in his last five seasons, pacing for 25 goals and 70 points. He turns 36 years old this summer and has one more year left on his long-term deal. Whenever he retires, he's heading straight for the Hall of Fame, but to see the Kings get another legitimate Cup window partly thanks to another very good season from Kopitar brings some warm feelings.

One Comment

  1. hawkster 2023-02-14 at 11:34

    Guerin make a move … Greenway + Dumba + 1st & 2nd in 24 for Schmaltz & Chychrun

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