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Only five defensemen finished above 70 points last year: Roman Josi (NAS, 96 points), Cale Makar (COL, 86), Victor Hedman (TBL, 85), Adam Fox (NYR, 74), John Carlson (WAS, 71). Three others finished just shy of the mark, tied at 68 points: Morgan Rielly (TOR), Quinn Hughes (VAN), and Kris Letang (PIT). No other blueliner finished with more than 60 points.

So 60- and 70-point defenseman are fantasy gold. Even more so if they can contribute in one or more additional categories like shots, hits, or blocks. All of the players above will not come cheaply via trade—although Letang and Carlson might get an age discount as they creep into their mid-30s.

A much more cost-effective way to break into this tier of defenseman is to anticipate who has the potential to score at this rate in the near future and obtain them before their value spikes. This week we will look at some of the top candidates to score 70 points from the blue line over the next few years while also contributing in a variety of categories.

K'Andre Miller (NYR)

Miller has now scored 22 points over his last 32 games—a 56-point pace. Can we take his offensive potential seriously yet? If this was a Looking Ahead article, Miller would definitely be a Building Block player: buy now, sit back, and enjoy the production.

Factoring in playoff experience, Miller, 23, now sits at 210 games for his career. Because he stands at 6-5, 215 lbs, however, he qualifies for a 400-game Breakout Threshold. That means what we have seen from him recently might not even be his offensive ceiling. A 25% boost on his recent scoring pace would land him at exactly 70 points.

Could Miller be a 70-point defenseman who also adds a couple shots, hits, and blocks per game? We might be getting ahead of ourselves a bit there—after all, he only has 62 points total in his career to date over three years—but I don't think it's out of the question. The main issue holding him back is power-play time: he has seen less than 10% of the Rangers' available power-play time this year, while Adam Fox, the team's actual 70-point defender, is sent out there 75% of the time with the man advantage.

Fox has averaged 22 power-play points (PPP) a year. He is of course one of the league's premier offensive defenders, so Miller wouldn't necessarily be able to provide the same impact in the same situation. But the point is that power-play exposure would likely give Miller at least a 15-point boost, which is all he would need to enter the 70-point echelon.

As his situation in New York is not likely to change anytime soon, however, it is more realistic to view Miller as a 55-point defenseman moving forward. That would still give him a chance of finishing top ten in scoring amongst defensemen, though: using 2021-22 point totals, Miller's 56 points would have tied for 11th overall with Charlie McAvoy (BOS), ahead of players like Rasmus Dahlin (BUF), Noah Dobson (NYI), Shea Theodore (VGK), and the next defender we will dig into, Mo Seider (DET).

Moritz Seider (DET)

Seider's early-season struggles while paired with Ben Chiarot have been well-documented. After putting up an impressive 50 points as a rookie—along with strong shot (2.3), hit (1.8), and block (1.9) rates—poolies were dismayed when he opened 2022-23 with only 13 points in his first 38 games (28-point pace).

Then came a switch from Chiarot to Jake Walman, and Seider has posted 17 points in his last 16 games. His strong play over the past month or so has landed him back on a 46-point pace. So Seider owners can breathe a collective sigh of relief. He's not a bust! In fact, if he can sustain his recent play over an entire season, we are looking at an 80+-point defender here. His shots (1.6) are down versus last year but his hits (2.3) and blocks (2.4) are up.

An 80-point blueliner who can put up two shots, hits, and blocks per game? It doesn't get much better than that in fantasy. I firmly believe Seider can be in the mix for top fantasy defender every year over the next decade plus. The thing that separates him from Miller is—you guessed it—power-play exposure. While he is not quite at Fox levels, Seider gets over 55% of the Red Wings' available PP time, which should translate to at least 15 PPP a year.

As the second-year defender settles further into the league, look for him to push his scoring totals into the sixties and even seventies while providing beast-like peripherals in the vein of Darnell Nurse (EDM). There are only a handful of defensemen I would take over Seider in keeper and dynasty formats. If his owner in your league is even slightly lower on him than that, it would be worth seeing how much he would cost.

Mikhail Sergachev (TBL)

Sergachev's start to 2022-23 was the opposite of Seider's: he improbably displaced the ageless wonder, Victor Hedman, on the Bolts' top PP and scored at a point-per-game pace over his first 28 games.

Then he missed a couple games in mid-December due to an "upper body" injury and hasn't looked the same since, scoring only nine points in his last 24 games. Will the real Mikhail Sergachev please stand up? Please stand up? Please stand up?

His shot volume has actually increased slightly since the brief injury (1.7 → 1.9), which suggests the decline was not injury-related. Instead, the answer seems to be obvious: Hedman regained his form and prime deployment at Sergachev's expense. That has been the story for Sergachev's entire tenure with the Lightning. The young Russian is averaging about a minute and a half less with the man advantage than at the start of the season and has only four PPP in his last 31 games versus 11 in his first 21.

As always, the biggest question surrounding Sergachev continues to be: when will he overtake Hedman for good? He proved pretty convincingly over a solid stretch of games that he can be a dynamic point-per-game defender, so the 24-year-old has clear 70+-point potential. But will we ever get a chance to see it? Hedman is signed for another two years after 2022-23, while Sergachev has a huge eight-year contract kicking in next year and will be a Bolt until he is 32, Hedman's current age.

Elite defensemen like Hedman, who excel with their reach, vision, and playmaking, tend to maintain high-level production through their mid-30s. But if—and this is pure speculation—the start of this year was an indication that the big Swede is losing a step, there might be hope in the next year or two that Sergachev can take over as Tampa's top dog.

Sergachev is currently on a 57-point pace, which would still smash his career-high pace of 44. However, the big swings in value based on deployment would give me pause when considering an investment. He has a clearer path than Miller to PP time but is less of a sure bet, in my opinion, than Seider. Like the others, Sergachev garners additional value from his peripheral generation: he will get you a couple shots on top of about 1.5 hits and blocks each per game. If he can maintain those peripherals while consistently scoring at a 50+-point pace—with an ever-present threat of taking a run at 70—Sergachev will be a premier fantasy asset over the next decade.

Vince Dunn (SEA)

One of the most unexpected names in the Top-15 scoring leaders among defensemen, Dunn, 26, has taken a giant step forward for the Kraken this year. His peripherals are a touch behind the three players mentioned above but still quite solid for multi cat (1.8 shots, 1.6 hits, 1.1 blocks). Plus, he is on a stellar 60-point pace.

Dunn has been sent out for a solid 57% of Seattle's available power-play time. But his 11 points with the man advantage is far lower than most of his peers: the lowest PPP output of the ten defenders ahead of Dunn in total points is Miro Heiskanen's 18. In fact, of all the defenders in the top 20 of scoring from the back end, only Hampus Lindholm has fewer power-play points (10). Add seven or eight points to Dunn's total and he is within spitting distance of hitting 70.

This PPP discrepancy suggests that Dunn has room for growth in this area as the Kraken continue to gel and improve as a team. Seattle's PP is currently the 20th most proficient unit in the league. If they can push into the top ten in the coming years as Matty Beniers, Shane Wright, and company continue to progress, Dunn will stand to benefit as the team's top option on the back end.

I haven't thought too highly of Dunn as a fantasy asset over his career to date, to be honest, but I like what I'm seeing here and would feel fairly confident investing in him as a high-upside building block who also offers solid multi-cat contributions.

Jakob Chychrun (ARI)

Is anyone else sick of these Chychrun trade rumours yet? Just pull the trigger already! The 24-year-old defender has been held out of the Coyotes' last couple games, presumably due to trade-related reasons, but still has not been moved. Hopefully we get some clarity on his future between now and the March 3 trade deadline.

He was linked most recently to the Kings for a return featuring Brandt Clarke. Were he to go to an up-and-coming team like Los Angeles, Chychrun would immediately have 70-point potential. He has been clicking at a 64-point pace so far in 2022-23 for lowly Arizona; imagine him on a unit over the next few years with players like Anze Kopitar, Kevin Fiala, Quinton Byfield, and Arthur Kaliyev.

Chychrun is also one of the more prolific shooters amongst defensemen: he has averaged over three shots a game over the past few years on top of about one and a half hits and blocks each. If everything breaks right, he could be a 70-point defenseman who also nets you 250 shots, 150 hits, and 150 blocks.

The main issue with Chychrun—and the reason I might actually consider selling high on him after he is traded—is that he is a Certified Band-Aid Boy. His career to date, even stretching back to junior, is littered by a variety of ailments and injuries: wrist, lower body x4, knee, illness, etc. Chychrun owners need to adjust expectations that he will miss 15-20 games a year. Even if he produces at a 70-point pace while healthy, his injury woes may mean that he never hits that total over an entire season.

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