Saturday’s Game Picks: Bet The Under on Stadium Series

Flip Livingstone

2023-02-18

Buckle up, hockey heads, the next few weeks of NHL action (both on and off the ice) is about to ratchet up a couple notches in intensity. A blockbuster Friday night trade between the St. Louis Blues and Toronto Maple Leafs that included former Conn Smythe winner Ryan O'Reilly should have a cascade effect on the NHL trade-deadline market, leading to a fast-and-furious stretch.

As front office executives across the league tinker with their lineups, impacts will be felt on the ice in terms of not only the quality of product each club throws out on the ice each night, but also in locker room and team morale, as big-time trades can have major implications on how fired up a team might be each night.

When a franchise invests in its current roster, especially without subtracting from it, players take note and usually respond with solid performances – meaning there could be a number of really good spots to lay some smart wagers and make a bit of loot over the next 16 days.

So many tantalizing matchups to choose from on this fine Saturday of NHL hockey and betting action, let's tap in and get this money. Good luck and enjoy the games.

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Flip Livingstone's Picks

2022-23 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)

Gold: 4-3
Silver: 4-3
Bronze: 5-2
Side bets: 15-4-2

Total Saturday Record: 28-12-2

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Gold Selection

Washington Capitals @ Carolina Hurricanes – Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-220)

The NHL's 37th-ever outdoor game features two Metro Division foes that could be on a first-round crash course in a couple months in the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes. The league has come a long way in terms of constructing and maintaining a quality ice surface for these outdoor games, but it’s also clearly had its fair share of struggles – most recently in Lake Tahoe in 2021 with holes and deep ruts all over the ice.

It will be sunny and 12 degrees Celsius for a good chunk of the day on Saturday at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina, the site of Saturday's Stadium Series tilt. The angle I am trying to take with this is the ice surface and quality of the ice can have major implications on how the game is played – most specifically on the total.

If the ice is as bad as I think it will be, completing crisp passes, making proper breakouts, and getting quality shots on net might become a struggle. Factor in that the Hurricanes allow the least shots on net per game of any team in the NHL and are one of the stingiest defensive teams in the league, I really like this one to stay UNDER the total. Speaking of which, most sportsbooks have this total sitting at 5.5, so I teased it up a little bit for reduced odds at 6.5.

I like this number at 5.5, too, so I clearly love it as my Gold bet of the night at 6.5, even for the lower payout of -220. This one should be a goalie battle, one that finishes UNDER the number.

Silver Selection

Auston Matthews Anytime Goal (-150)

Toronto general manager Kyle Dubas can obviously feel the heat of six consecutive seasons of first-round playoff exits and is trying to do something to save his job. Case in point, the Ryan O'Reilly trade with St. Louis Blues that I briefly mentioned off the top. Toronto is going for it, bringing in the leadership, sandpaper, and winning caliber of O'Reilly and I expect Dubas and Co. to make further additions to the lineup – Toronto needs another blueliner before Leafs Nation can start planning the parade again.

Now, what does this mean for the Leafs on the ice and our bets? Even if O'Reilly and Noel Acciari (also included in the deal) aren't in the lineup for the Buds tonight, this will be a group that is fired up for what the next few weeks have in store. A group that also just received potentially the biggest boost it was going to in the return of Auston Matthews following a three-week injury stint.

The return I am alluding to was a beastly one for No. 34, as Matthews put up one of his best all-around performances of the year with a game-winning goal, an assist, a hit, two blocked shots, and three shots on net while winning over 70% of his faceoffs. Matthews is clearly healthy again and that is bad news for opposing netminders, especially ones rocking the bleu, blanc, et rouge, as the young American sniper has a sensational 22 goals and 13 assists in 29 regular-season games against Montreal.

The Leafs should be flying tonight and I expect another big showing from the team's most-important and dangerous offensive weapon. Matthews any time goal for my Silver selection.

Bronze Selection

New York Rangers @ Calgary Flames – Pick: Rangers ML (+120)

I've said it before and I'll say it again: something really isn't right with this Calgary Flames team this season. That might not exactly be a bold take, but given the makeup of this roster the Flames really should be a much better team.

The last seven games of Calgary's schedule have arguably been some of the hardest-to-watch hockey from this club over the past few seasons, putting up ugly performances (and losses) to the likes of such lowly teams as the Chicago Blackhawks, Ottawa Senators, and Detroit Red Wings (twice). While the New York Rangers haven't exactly been putting up consistent play of their own, especially defensively, they got their man in winger Vladimir Tarasenko and the chemistry he has already shown with the likes of forwards Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin is already paying dividends offensively.

Straight up and down: before I see an entire 60-minute showing from this Calgary group I will continue to fade them. However, it should be noted the Rangers were involved in yet another high-scoring, run-and-gun-type game just Friday night against the Edmonton Oilers, so we should likely see backup netminder Jaroslav Halak in the blue paint tonight for New York.

Even with Halak and his 8-6-1 record this season in the cage, I still really like this spot for the Rangers to continue to pick up wins, something they've now done in seven consecutive games overall and four of their last five on the road. Rangers on the moneyline for my Bronze Pick of the evening.

Side Bets

Montreal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Maple Leafs PL -1.5 (-155)

Philadelphia Flyers @ Vancouver Canucks – Pick: Flyers ML (+100)

Detroit Red Wings @ Seattle Kraken – Pick: Red Wings PL +1.5 (-176)

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Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting and fantasy hockey writer and podcast host with past experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks.

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Brad Hayward's Picks

I've had a very bad week in my primary fantasy league, only in that I'm losing to my own son. OK, to be fair he's played fantasy longer than I have, and certainly has equal knowledge. A fun rivalry.

I improved last weekend with a 5-2 showing, only losing Boston's two goalscorer picks.

Gold:  6-2-0

Silver:  3-4-1

Bronze:  4-4-0

Side bets:  14-7

AND, I went completely out of character and put down a Benjamin on my parlay(1-0), winning $127.   House money now, guys!  

Gold Selection

Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Mike Matheson takes over 1.5 shots on goal (-165)

Yes, I think Toronto wins this one. I think they get an emotional team jolt for having picked up Ryan O'Reilly last night. But Montreal has not been the pushover that anyone might expect, especially since the calendar turned. Matheson has had two shots or more in the past seven of nine games, and with the changes bound to happen over a team that will need to learn new line combinations, I see Montreal getting at least four power-play opportunities, which will also benefit my selection.

Silver Selection

Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks – Pick: Rasmus Dahlin, goalscorer (+285)

Here I go again, at almost 3 to 1 odds against my own silver pick…. and one goal in his last ten contests, at that. But Dahlin has had 30 shots over that time period, and they're facing San Jose, whose goaltending can be beaten from the point. Sure, picking Tage Thompson (-110) or Erik Karlsson here (+205) would seem safer, but I'm on house money at this point (see below), and won't actually put green down on this one, just my cheap reputation. LOL. Side bet #1: Buffalo wins this contest on the road (-125)

Bronze Selection

Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars – Pick:  Dallas covers -1.5 goals (+105)

Yes, the "Stars" align against me again. Dallas is coming off a shootout loss, had to travel last night, and plays a rested opponent with nothing to lose. But quality eventually wins here, and this one I believe in as much as the Gold pick.  Scott Wedgewood will beat either Elvis Merzlikins or Joonas Korpisalo, and Dallas' tenuous home record (15-6-7) this year hasn't dissuaded me.  Side bet #2: Kirill Marchenko has over 1.5 shots on goal (-185).

Side bet #3:  Dylan Larkin, over 3.5 shots (+145), which the Wings' captain has done eight times in his past nine games.  Bet on this one. 

And again, I offer a reasonable PARLAY option:  Washington betters 2.5 goals scored, whether they win or lose (no Alex Ovechkin, remember), and William Nylander pots a goal against the Canadiens (+320 but it costs you double, also).

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 28 - 19:03 OTT vs CHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 TOR vs WSH
Mar 28 - 19:03 MTL vs PHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 PIT vs CBJ
Mar 28 - 19:03 FLA vs NYI
Mar 28 - 19:03 CAR vs DET
Mar 28 - 20:03 MIN vs S.J
Mar 28 - 20:03 STL vs CGY
Mar 28 - 20:03 WPG vs VGK
Mar 28 - 21:03 EDM vs L.A
Mar 28 - 21:03 COL vs NYR
Mar 28 - 22:03 SEA vs ANA
Mar 28 - 22:03 VAN vs DAL
Mar 28 - 22:03 ARI vs NSH

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
TAGE THOMPSON BUF
JJ PETERKA BUF
ANTHONY DUCLAIR T.B
JORDAN GREENWAY BUF
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI
JOONAS KORPISALO OTT
KAREL VEJMELKA ARI
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency DET Players
25.1 LUCAS RAYMOND DAVID PERRON DYLAN LARKIN
24.9 PATRICK KANE ALEX DEBRINCAT J.T. COMPHER
19.8 MICHAEL RASMUSSEN CHRISTIAN FISCHER ANDREW COPP

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