Saturday’s Picks/Props: Bet the Under on Dallas/Vegas
Flip Livingstone
2023-02-25
The shuffling of the NHL's rosters continued on Thursday, as the current Stanley Cup front-running Boston Bruins added toughness and depth with another late-season trade we've become accustomed to them making over the past number of years.
A stacked Boston lineup gets an injection of size and grit in forward Garnet Hathaway and blue-liner Dmitry Orlov from the Washington Capitals, adding more veteran presence and winning pedigree to a group that is already doing historic things in terms of overall standings and dominating both ends of the ice – but what does it all mean for today's bets? It means we have to discuss another juicy opportunity for the Bs to continue to pad their impressive lead on the rest of the league and Atlantic Division in specific.
With 12 teams in action just last night, make sure you double-check starting netminders and lineups before laying a wager. Both will obviously influence the latest odds and lines. Good luck and enjoy the action.
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2022-23 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)
Gold: 5-3
Silver: 4-4
Bronze: 5-3
Side bets: 16-6-2
Total Saturday Record: 30-16-2
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Gold Selection
Dallas Stars @ Vegas Golden Knights – Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-160)
Every single week a total jumps off the page for me. You've heard this kind of betting angle from me before and it's been paying off. Most recently, only last week when the number stayed just UNDER the total in the latest iteration of the Stadium Series, this time between the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes. This is the spot that jumped off the page this Saturday, and after a quick dive into the numbers, you're likely going to want to ride with me on this one again this week in terms of laying an UNDER bet.
On the back of another good season from Jake Oettinger and overall strong defensive team play, the total has stayed UNDER the number in 11 of Dallas' last 12 games overall. The Stars are just downright stingy in their own end, as Pete DeBoer's men play a defensive brand of hockey that's led this group to allow the third-least goals against in the NHL this season with only the Boston Bruins and Hurricanes allowing less.
Everything in this matchup is pointing to the UNDER: 10 of the Stars last 11 games away from home have stayed UNDER the total and so have seven of their last nine against this Vegas Golden Knights team. Oh, forget to mention this last one, both teams sit outside the top-10 in league scoring and the most-recent two meetings between these two both stayed UNDER the total easily.
You may have noticed I have the line for my bet here at 6.5, I teased the extra half goal for a slightly lower wager. It worked out last week and I like the extra bit of insurance for pretty solid odds. This one will be low scoring, finishing UNDER 6.5 for my Gold Pick of the night.
Silver Selection
Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche – Pick: Avalanche ML (-125)
Man, this Calgary Flames team might be the most frustrating group in the entire NHL to both watch and bet on. I wagered against them last week when they faced the New York Rangers and it nearly paid out, as the Flames almost blew it and had to pull out the win in overtime. We're back this week with another good spot to fade what I believe to be the most overrated team in the league this season and in the same breath, one of the most disappointing as well.
A brief glance at the Flames' recent results shows a team struggling to find its identity and one REALLY struggling to find consistency. Aside from the 6-3 victory Calgary was able to muster against the Arizona Coyotes this past week, the Flames have looked rough in almost every single scenario possible on the ice. On the other hand, you have the reigning Stanley Cup champion Avalanche rounding into form at the most opportune time despite injuries to key pieces.
Bottom line: this is a big game for both teams battling it out for positioning in their respective divisions and I think we see a fun one from start to finish. However, I also expect the action to be dictated by the Avs, a group that has victories in four straight overall and has great results against the Flames over the last 10 meetings while posting a 7-1-2 record. It should be noted Colorado played just last night with starter Alexandar Georgiev posting a neat-and-tidy 5-1 win over the Winnipeg Jets. Even with youngster Justus Annunen potentially starting (check GoaliePost for the latest updates), I am more than comfortable riding with the Avs given what I have seen from the Flames lately. Avalanche on the moneyline for my Silver selection.
Bronze Selection
Brad Marchand Anytime Point (-210)
I alluded to the deal the Bruins just made off the top of the article and I really don't think I need to break down the notion of a team "going for it" with a big trade ahead of the NHL trade deadline and what that usually means for the success on the ice immediately following those trades. But, if you need some reasoning, take a look at how the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers have been doing since their respective moves over the past two weeks – not too shabby.
These kinds of moves at this time of year for teams in the mix for a Stanley Cup fire up the lineups of the teams landing these players. I think the same thing happens here again for the Boston Bruins who should likely have both Orlov and Hathaway in the lineup against a Vancouver Canucks team that looks simply beleaguered of late. Yes, I will also be wagering on the Bruins, likely on the puckline, but my favourite pick in this situation is actually with a Brad Marchand player prop.
The Little Ball of Hate has been showing out lately and is putting together yet another solid season in his Hall-of-Fame-caliber career, registering 51 points in 49 games so far this campaign. However, it's his performances of late that has me feeling a spot here for a Marchand anytime point. Marchand has looked good on the offensive end over his last four games, posting two goals (one game-winner) and three assists on 13 shots on net. I like this spot for the Bruins and I really like it for Marchand who has 16 points in 19 career regular-season games against the Canucks.
A Marchand anytime point won't bring you juicy odds but it is the perfect pick to add to a parlay. Either way it's going to hit, so wager on it how you like and collect your money.
Side Bets
Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils – Pick: Flyers PL +1.5 (+100)
Boston Bruins @ Vancouver Canucks – Pick: Bruins PL -1.5 (-105)
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Detroit Red Wings – Pick: Lightning ML (-165)
Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting and fantasy hockey writer and podcast host with past experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks.