Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

***

1. In case you missed it, here is a list of Saturday's Fantasy Takes:

– Kapanen to St. Louis
– Kravtsov to Vancouver
– Niederreiter to Winnipeg

2. And on Thursday, Washington traded Garnet Hathaway and Dmitry Orlov to Boston. (feb24)

3. Every year, there are players that take us by surprise. That is the nature of any sport – there have been nearly 900 different skaters suit up this season in the NHL – but hockey’s randomness can sometimes kick it up a notch like baseball does.

There are times we are flat-out wrong about a player but sometimes a player rebounds more than expected, shines brighter in a debut season, or sometimes just gets lucky for a while. Given that the notion of surprise is relative to the expectations of the individual person, not all of these will be a shock to each and every reader, but hopefully some lessons can be gleaned from a few of these players below. (feb23)

4. The relationship between Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers, and the fans is an odd one. He is the last remaining vestige of the prior core that included Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall and had never reached the next level in the fantasy game: six seasons with at least 50 points, two seasons with at least 60 points, and zero seasons with at least 70. He also had four 20-goal seasons and zero 30-goal seasons.

Well, he’s already cracked the 70-point barrier for the first time in his career thanks to an assist on Tuesday night and, at time of writing, needed three goals in the remaining 24 games to reach 30 on the campaign. Yes, being a staple of the top PP unit is the reason for the career year as over half his points (38) have come with the man advantage, but he’s really helped fantasy owners that drafted him back in September/October to a level I didn’t think he could reach. (feb23)

5. Excitement around the Florida blue line in a post-MacKenzie Weegar world was largely around Aaron Ekblad (for very good reason) and Gustav Forsling, who took a step forward in 2021-22. However, Brandon Montour has been more valuable than either of them, ranking as a top-10 defenceman on Yahoo! as of Wednesday afternoon.

That is partly due to Ekblad’s injury issues, but Montour has still posted 10 goals and 38 assists with 19 power-play points while pacing for over 230 shots. It is the PPPs that really help here because if he has secondary PP time like Forsling, we could probably cut at least 10 points from Montour’s total. All the same, players have to take advantage of opportunities when they happen, and Montour certainly has. (feb23)

6. To be sure, things haven’t been as rosy since his hot start – 0.946 save percentage in his first eight games, 0.898 save percentage in the 35 games since – but Carter Hart is having the rebound season the Flyers needed to see.

An overall save percentage of 0.909 (at time of writing) might not seem great, but the league average is 0.906, and it’s better than names like Ville Husso, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Jacob Markstrom. It has helped Hart be a top-10 fantasy goalie on Yahoo! along the way.

Per Evolving Hockey, Hart is saving one goal above expected (GSAx) every 167 minutes of game action. For reference, Stuart Skinner (0.913 SV%) is at one GSAx every 153 minutes while Igor Shesterkin (0.912) is at one GSAx every 215 minutes. That is a measure that helps take the team in front of the goalie into context and Hart is showing extremely well. If he can maintain this level moving forward, the Flyers do not have to worry about their goaltending for the first time in… a while. (feb23)

[Follow the link for more, as we dig in, using Yahoo’s standard fantasy scoring with data from either Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick.]

7. Anthony Duclair made his long-awaited season debut on Friday after missing the entire season so far with an Achilles injury. Duclair registered an assist along with four shots and a team-leading five hits in 17 minutes of icetime, which included second-unit power-play time.

Duclair (24% Yahoo/45% Fantrax) is worth a pickup if you need scoring help, as he reached 30 goals last season and should be used in a top-6 role for the Panthers going forward. Duclair should be especially appealing in salary cap leagues, as his $3 million cap hit seems inexpensive relative to his cap hit. (He was scooped up in my salary cap league minutes after being activated. The league does not allow players on IR to be added, hence the rush.) (feb25)

8. Aleksander Barkov missed Friday’s game with a hand injury, which is the same issue that forced him to miss a game earlier this month. Perhaps a stint on the IR would be better for his recovery, although that might not be how this injury plays out. The Panthers are one of a growing number of teams in the hunt for an Eastern Conference wild-card spot, so this might ultimately get addressed after the season if it lingers.  

Also for the Panthers, Spencer Knight will be out indefinitely as he enters the NHL/NHLPA assistance program. All the best in his recovery. Alex Lyon has been recalled and should back up Sergei Bobrovsky for the foreseeable future. (feb25)

9. It might seem like Jeff Skinner has been in the NHL forever (actually, since the 2010-11 season, when he debuted as an 18-year-old), yet this season is his first with over a point per game (58 PTS in 54 GP).

Much of Skinner’s success has been tied to lining up with Tage Thompson for much of the season. Thompson might be slowing down a bit from his sky-high first-half pace, but he’s also only 22 points shy of reaching 100 points. (feb25)

10. Mark Giordano blocked three shots on Friday, tying him with Kris Russell for the all-time lead in that category. The 39-year-old Giordano leads the Leafs in that category and is in the top 30 in that category this season. Gio may not provide the offense that he used to, but his contributions in the blocked shot category might provide a reason for you to keep him on your roster.

While I was researching blocked shots, I noticed that one player is far and away the leader in that category this season. Alec Martinez leads the league with 171 blocked shots. Just note that blocking shots is the kind of role that lends itself to injuries. Martinez missed 53 games last season due to a facial injury. Chris Tanev is another notorious shot blocker who has spent considerable time on IR throughout his career. (feb25)

11. I didn’t believe this when I first saw it, but Andrei Svechnikov‘s two goals on Tuesday were his first of the new year. Svechnikov had not scored a goal in 19 games prior to that. (feb25)

12. With Cale Makar on IR, Bowen Byram is a must-start. The Avalanche defenseman has three goals and five points over his last four games. Byram has also taken three shots in three of his last four games. Perhaps more importantly, Byram is also on the first-unit power play, a spot that could be his while Makar is out with a concussion. (feb25)

13. Cuts from skates are just a part of playing hockey and in the NHL. We have seen some absolutely gruesome injuries in this manner over the years, with Evander Kane being an example from this season alone. Something similar happened to Ryan Johansen a few nights ago and that was why he'll be out for an estimated 12 weeks following surgery.

That timeline would put him out until mid/late May, which means he’s done for the year barring a deep playoff run from Nashville. So, he’s done for the year.

Following a resurgent 2021-22 season that saw 26 goals and 37 assists in 79 games, Johansen fell back to Earth like many of his teammates this season with 12 goals and 16 assists in 55 games. Later in these Ramblings, there’s be a dive on Johansen and some ancillary topics surrounding him. (feb24)

14. To say the move to Washington hasn’t gone as Anthony Mantha, the Caps, or fantasy hockey players had hoped, would be a gross understatement. He was never a monster producer, but over his last three full seasons in Detroit, he averaged 28 goals every 82 games. He has 22 goals in 105 career games with Washington, so there has been a noticeable drop. So, what is going on? Follow the link for the deep dive. (feb24)

15. I put out my initial list of the 2023 free agency salary projections late last week, and while I publish it with a small ramble to lead into it, I wanted to talk about a few more players here.

If you need any details on what I do or how the numbers come to be, the link above should have enough details for you. If not, then feel free to shoot me a message on Twitter @alexdmaclean and I’ll be happy to elaborate where I can.

The top of the list is interesting in that David Pastrnak is in such a great situation that it would be hard to leave, but if Boston gets beat out on the money end of things that could be all he needs. He’s one of the top goal scorers in the league and it’s going to be an eight-digit AAV needed to lock him up. (feb22)

16. John Klingberg really seems to have overplayed his hand. I can’t help but compare him to Taylor Hall in their free agency escapades, where they both likely had plenty of suitors on long term deals when they initially hit the market, they ended up taking one-year deals, and then disappointed in that one year show-me situation.

In Hall’s case, he was traded to Boston at the deadline, and signed a long and reasonable extension there. For Klingberg, that’s his best-case scenario, because if he’s not traded, or if the team that trades for him is disappointed by what they get out of the final 15 games of him, then he may come in well below the $6.5 million I have projected. It would be best for his fantasy value too if he could get traded soon and find a groove there. The two go hand-in-hand. (feb22)

17. Troy Terry and Cole Caufield also come in a little low, as their upsides are so high that the teams know they have to lock them in now. They’re still young though, so my numbers are a little more conservative with the projections, but at this time, the starting line for negotiations with Zegras or Caufield is the $7 million AAV that Dylan Cozens and Matt Boldy just signed. (feb22)

18. The Pittsburgh Penguins got a boost to the lineup as goaltender Tristan Jarry was in net for the team’s game at home to the New York Islanders last Monday night. He had missed nearly a month with an upper-body injury and at time of writing had just three starts in calendar 2023. Staying healthy has been an ongoing concern with Jarry dating back to the end of the 2021-22 regular season, so hopefully he can put all this behind him. Pittsburgh needs him to be healthy and in net if they want a playoff push followed by a playoff run. (feb21)

19. The Islanders got some very bad news about Mathew Barzal early last week, as he's out indefinitely with a lower body injury. Coach Lane Lambert would later say that they’re hopeful he can return this season.

That kind of wording seems to cast a lot of doubt over Barzal and the remaining two months of the campaign. It also points to the severity of the injury that he suffered, and that knee-on-knee certainly didn’t look good. It’s a huge blow for a franchise that had managed to climb into a playoff spot (as of early Monday afternoon). (feb21)

20. Mark this down – the Ottawa Senators will be the offensive juggernaut next season that the Buffalo Sabres have been in this one. Mark it!

All the pieces are there. So much upside in their young players – and that’s without the services of Josh Norris (mostly), as well as without Alex Formenton, who would provide 45+ points on a depth line. We are getting a preview of how there is more to come, too: Ridly Greig is looking great as an NHLer much sooner than expected. 

He’s doing this playing with checking-line players, but if he keeps producing with limited minutes in limited situations, he has a future in the top six further down the road. Just when we had probably given up on Erik Brannstrom, he goes on a tear with Jake Sanderson sidelined.

At time of writing, Tim Stutzle had 14 points in his last six games. The 21-year-old (only turned 21 last month!) was on pace to finish with 95. His favorite linemate has been Brady Tkachuk. That likely means that Josh Norris will be the second-line guy with new linemates when he’s back next year. It’s hard to dethrone a player coming off a 95-point season.

21. This discussion is only going to heat up. Marc-Andre Fleury is a Hall-of-Fame goaltender and proven Cup winner, but Filip Gustavsson continues to roll and has clearly been superior. History (i.e., time after time, you see a team go with proven pedigree over the hotshot youngster) tells us that Fleury will be Minnesota’s starter, but you have to think that the leash will be super-short.

***

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.