Fantasy Take: Islanders Bolster Forward Group With Engvall

Michael Clifford

2023-02-28

Toronto made a number of trades to shake up their depth on Tuesday, and though the focus has often been on the blue line, this one meant moving the bottom-6 around. Pierre Engvall was sent to the New York Islanders in exchange for a third-round draft pick in 2024:

Envgvall set a career-high with 15 goals and 35 points a season ago, and already has 12 goals in 58 games this season as the shooting percentage has ticked up a bit. Let's break it down.

What the Islanders get

Engvall never got a shining role on the team as none of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, or William Nylander were among his top-5 most-common line mates at 5-on-5 over the last three seasons. Despite that, he still scored 0.8 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in that span, which might not sound great but it's a 62nd percentile rate, or a middle-tier second-line rate. Considering he was largely kept away from the team's top offensive performers, scoring at a second-line rate of any level is impressive. He did that because of an 83rd percentile shot rate, something he'll need to replicate with New York if he wants to keep scoring. He has historically not been a high shooting percentage player, and there's no guarantee he slides into a top spot with Bo Horvat or Brock Nelson, though my initial lean is he starts with Nelson and then we’ll see where things go.

He is a versatile player, though. There is tracking data showing him with the ability to both shoot and pass the puck at above-average rates, combined with solid defensive play. It makes him a versatile player for the Islanders, which can be good and bad. If he can step into a Jean-Gabriel Pageau-type role where he skates 18-19 minutes a night with meaningful PP time, there is real fantasy potential here. He won't be a huge producer, but a bigger role could easily see him be a 25-goal, 50-point guy with decent peripherals. It can play in cap leagues, though it all depends on how big (or small) a role they want to give him. But if his versatility means anchoring the third line and sparse secondary PP time, it would be a lateral move in the fantasy realm.

This hurts the fringe guys on the Islanders because it brings in another forward who should get regular minutes in the middle-6 at the least. Players that had sometimes seen top-6 roles like Casey Cizikas, Zach Parise, and Matt Martin are going to see those opportunities less often. There is a real chance nothing much changes for Engvall but a hybrid role on a team fighting for the playoffs is an opportunity for more fantasy goodness.

Toronto's bottom-6 had seen Sam Lafferty and Noel Acciari added over the last couple of weeks and spots were running out. Engvall leaving still has Toronto with 10 regular forwards that should be in the lineup every night so all this really does is open a spot for Lafferty, or whomever takes Engvall's spot that will be in turn replaced by Lafferty – and assure Alexander Kerfoot is a regular unless things get really ugly.

Who this helps

Pierre Engvall

Ilya Sorokin

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Alexander Kerfoot

Brock Nelson

Who this hurts

Zach Parise

Casey Cizikas

Ilya Samsonov

Matt Martin  

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