Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

Ty Smith (PIT)

While the red flags surrounding Smith, 22, are piling up, he remains an intriguing, high-upside fantasy option moving forward. The main question is whether or not he can realize his considerable offensive potential before the Penguins' superstar core hits a steep decline and the team embarks on its first rebuild in decades.

Jake Guentzel (28) and Tristan Jarry (27) are the only Penguins of note who are still in their twenties. All their other top-of-the-lineup players are 30+. While Sidney Crosby (35) continues to pile up points at an incredible rate (73 in 61 games), Evgeni Malkin (36) and Jake Guentzel are contributing only around a point per game, and no other forward is pacing for 60+. On the back end, Jeff Petry (35) has recently taken over PP1 duties as Kris Letang (35) pretty clearly seems to have lost a step (53-point pace).

The Penguins are eight points behind the sixth- and seventh-place teams in the East and are no longer a powerhouse. Currently clinging to the first wildcard spot in their conference, Pittsburgh looks like they will make the playoffs this year. But 2023-24 is looking doubtful. Aside from Boston and Tampa Bay, the other four teams currently ahead of them (CAR, NJD, NYR, TOR), as well as several teams right behind them (OTT, BUF, FLA), are all still young and on the upswing.

Meanwhile down on the farm, Smith is only scoring half-a-point-per-game—not exactly numbers that will force Penguins management to call him up. His competition for prime deployment and PP time consists of a couple AHL lifers Xavier Ouellet and Mitch Reinke. Smith is outpacing both in terms of PP production per game (0.27) and is continuing to shoot the puck at a decent rate (2.5 per game)—both positive signs.

It is also important to factor in the fact that he has bounced between the AHL (Oct-Dec) and NHL (Jan) and dealt with injuries all through February. Penguins GM Ron Hextall stated in a recent interview that Smith is currently out with a facial fracture, which was part of the reason why they decided to acquire Dmitry Kulikov as a rental.

Ron Hextall said there wasn't a plan in place to move one of 10 potential NHL D-men after acquiring Kulikov.

Cited injuries to Xavier Ouellet and Ty Smith as to why they currently have so many options: pic.twitter.com/LkX6sX3PS6

— Danny Shirey (@DannyShireyPGH) March 3, 2023

At the very least, it is good to hear that management sees Smith as an important depth piece. He stands out on Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (AHL) as the defenceman with the clearest NHL potential and should be first in line for call ups when he returns from injury, potentially in the playoffs.

The best sign that there is still something here for fantasy purposes is that Smith performed quite well during his only nine games so far in a Penguins jersey. Letang was down at the time, and Smith took up over 70% of the available PP time, scoring three of his four points with the man advantage. He also launched three shots per game, threw two hits per game, and was the team's best play-driver (albeit in a limited sample size).

Check out his dark blue bubble in the bottom right of Pittsburgh's deployment chart: during those nine games, the Penguins dominated in terms of scoring chances and shots taken while he was on the ice. He was heavily sheltered and given the most offensive zone starts on the team.

As indicated by the reporter's question in the Hextall interview, the main issue to monitor will be how many NHL defenders the team has under contract for next year. Kulikov is just a rental, given that his contract expires after this year. Brian Dumoulin is the only other defender who will be an Unrestricted Free Agent at the end of 2022-23. Assuming they re-sign Dumoulin, that leaves seven defensemen under contract. A further wrinkle is that Smith himself is a Restricted Free Agent this off-season.

Nevertheless, I still see potential here for Smith to put up Calen Addison-like numbers as early as next year, something like 40 points with ~25 coming from the powerplay. If the then-23-year-old can also put up a couple shots and hits per game, there will suddenly be a ton of interest in acquiring his services in fantasy. Addison was able to leapfrog established options like Jared Spurgeon and Matt Dumba this year for the Wild. If you are rebuilding and can afford a bench slot, it still seems prudent to roll the dice on Smith being able to pull off something similar in Steel City.

Alexander Holtz (NJD)

The immediate future looks bleak for the young Swedish winger. Now that the Devils have acquired Timo Meier, this New Jersey lineup will be even harder for Holtz to crack than it already was.

Holtz, 22, has only played 24 games combined between the AHL and NHL this year: four in October, four in November, ten in December, three in January, and three in February—all back and forth between the two leagues and punctuated by multiple nights in the press box as a healthy scratch. What an odd way to treat your top forward prospect.

The narrative with Holtz all along has been that he has an elite shot and nose for the net. Stick him next to Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier and watch out. But that dream still has not become a reality, so fantasy managers are faced with the prospect of owning a declining asset.

If you can still trade on Holtz's name value to make a lateral move (for, say, a William Eklund-level prospect), that would likely be wise at this point. Otherwise, you should probably hold him until his value perks back up a bit. I'd love to see him get regular top-line AHL minutes for an extended stretch to rediscover his mojo.

The Devils now boast Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Meier, and the red-hot Dawson Mercer at the top of their lineup.The reality at the NHL level is that Holtz needs to beat out guys like Tomas Tatar, Yegor Sharangovich, Ondrej Palat, and Jesper Boqvist to even sniff the top nine let alone the top six. Keep in mind, however, that nine out of the fourteen forwards currently under contract with New Jersey will see their deals expire in June. That could mean a lot of turnover and more opportunity for players like Holtz.

Alternatively, if he gets traded during the off-season, that would go a long way towards reinvigorating his value. But if he sticks with the Devils, Holtz will continue to face a challenging road to a prominent scoring role.

Ivan Miroshnichenko (WAS)

After being cleared of Hodgkin's Lymphoma this past November, Miroshnichenko returned to the Russian leagues with a vengeance. Bouncing around between the MHL, VHL, and KHL, he has begun to re-establish himself as an upper-tier fantasy asset. His MHL production (14 points in 12 games) shows that he has outgrown the junior level. Unlike many of his fellow youngsters, Miro has been given decent ice time and an extended stretch of 21 games with Avangard (KHL) from December to early February.

Ivan Miroshnichenko (WSH) scores his first KHL goal. He has looked himself since returning to game action in early November following his Hodgkin's lymphoma diagnosis. pic.twitter.com/jiehXeZvAh

— Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) December 26, 2022

Miroshnichenko was once considered a top-five selection in the 2022 draft before dropping to Washington at 20th overall. He is an above-average skater, shooter, and puck-handler who also brings a significant physical dimension to the game. His EP Scouting Profile calls him a hammer that "views everything and everyone on the ice as a nail – pucks and opponents alike."

Like Smith, the biggest question with Miroshnichenko (besides his health) is whether or not he can earn a meaningful NHL role before the Capitals' current core of Alex Ovechkin, Nick Backstrom, and John Carlson hits their age-related decline. He joins Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre as the only prospects of note in Washington's pipeline. It would not be overly surprising to see the Capitals ship off one or more of those three to acquire win-now pieces if they feel they are still in a position to make a Cup run. A trade might change his prospects, depending on where he landed, but the most important thing for his fantasy managers is to see him continue getting as much ice as possible to make up for lost development time.

Matt Villalta (LAK)

Now that Jonathan Quick's tenure in Los Angeles has come to an end, there is a big question mark surrounding who will become the Kings' starter moving forward. This is a young, improving team, so there is a ton of potential here for a goalie to ascend quickly into the fantasy spotlight.

For now, the recently acquired Joonas Korpisalo, 28, will battle the recently re-signed Pheonix Copley for starts down the stretch, while Villalta, 23, trades off with the embattled Cal Petersen down with Ontario (AHL). Villalta (RFA) and Korpisalo (UFA) will both see their contracts expire this summer, while Copley was extended for another year and Petersen still has two years remaining.

Villalta, 23, is the youngest member of the organization's four-headed monster. He has far less buzz than the others, partly because his numbers dating back to junior never screamed NHL potential. He hasn't had a season this good since he was an OHL rookie. But his AHL Goals Saved Above Average this year has been solid (4.54), and he at least looks ready to be the main starter for the Reign next year.

I have a feeling Korpisalo could surprise and be the frontrunner to claim at least the 1A starter's role. He posted a solid 2.79 GAA, 0.920 SV%, and nearly 70% Quality Start % over 14 games in the second quarter for the league-worst Blue Jackets, outbattling incumbent Elvis Merzlikins in the process. The Kings' performance in the playoffs this spring will help clarify who they feel most comfortable with in net moving forward. If Korpisalo excels, it would make sense for LA to extend him and move Petersen or Copley.

Although Villalta is the odd man out for now, keep a close eye on LA's crease in the coming months. Goalies are fickle and constantly come out of nowhere. Villalta is now 23 and his improved numbers this year may indicate that he is beginning to hit his stride. Another year of solid AHL numbers would go a long way towards establishing his NHL potential.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.