Flip Livingstone's Picks

Take a deep breath and exhale, hockey fans. The tumultuous few weeks approaching Friday's 3 p.m. EST NHL trade deadline has officially come and gone. Now, we're left to pick up the pieces of what those moves mean for all of the degenerate (and regular) gamblers out there. Don't worry, I have you covered with all the betting breakdown and hockey wagering analysis you need this fine Saturday. Let's tap in and get this loot.

A total of 12 matchups await on the NHL betting board today, including some juicy matinee meetings between some of the best teams in the league, featuring the Boston Bruins visiting the New York Rangers and the Buffalo Sabres into Tampa to face the Lightning to kick the entire day off with a bang.

Good luck today. Let's have a big week.

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2022-23 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)

Gold: 6-3
Silver: 5-4
Bronze: 6-3
Side bets: 18-7-2

Total Saturday Record: 35-17-2

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Gold Selection

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Ottawa Senators – Pick: Senators PL -1.5 (-110)

If you read or listen in on what's going in Ottawa right now, you'd think this team is within striking distance of a first overall seed instead of their actual positioning of lurking for the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference – but this Sens team is clearly a confident one right now, one in which is buying in and playing its best hockey of the entire season at the most critical stretch. They believe they can make it, and the entire lineup is playing like it right now.

This Ottawa group – beleaguered by injuries, inconsistent play, and franchise sale rumours – has reeled off four-straight victories while scoring an impressive 22 total goals. Sure, three of those Ws came against the Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens, but this most-recent win was a dominating performance against a very good New York Rangers club, so the time is now to pounce on the red-hot Senators.

In roll the Columbus Blue Jackets who, to their credit, have looked a lot better over the past two weeks and actually have points in eight of the last 10 games against Ottawa. However, these are two very different teams right now, so that recent trend I just mentioned has to be digested and taken with a grain of salt. The addition of big-time blue-liner Jakob Chychrun is obviously something this organization has been pushing for and it now solidifies a very strong and balanced top-four defensive group in the Nation's Capital that touts the abilities of Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson and is rounded out by the very serviceable and reliable Artem Zub.

Ottawa could be a nightmare matchup for a top team in the East come the first round, should they make it, and for now are very much a club that I will be wagering on to make a big push for the playoffs down the stretch with a number of victories – continuing tonight against the worst team in the NHL.

Silver Selection

Edmonton Oilers @ Winnipeg Jets – Pick: OVER 6.5 (-210)

Compared to some of their Canadian franchise counterparts, both the Oilers and Jets were relatively quiet in the lead up to the deadline. Sure, Winnipeg added Vladislav Namestnikov and Nino Niederreiter and Edmonton got their shut-down D-man with Mattias Ekholm while adding some depth up the middle in Nick Bjugstad, but these two franchises – for the most part – are sticking to their guns. Will it be enough in a Western Conference that is currently ripe for the taking? We're about to find out.

One thing we do know when looking at these Western foes from a betting standpoint is when they get together it's usually a long night for the person running the in-arena goal horn. You know me with my OVER/UNDER bets, one each week is what I like to run with and they have been hitting in a very big way for me this season – especially on Saturday's  (record breakdown can be found above and @Flips_Picks on Twitter).

Most sportsbooks have this total sitting at seven, so I have teased it down somewhat for reduced odds, making this a pick that is perfect to include in a nice little three- or four-team parlay. Not only have the totals been going well OVER the number for both of these teams lately, there is a lot of recent trend data to back this up even further. The OVER has hit in 8 of the Oilers' last 11 games overall, five of their last five on the road, and 10 of their last 14 trips to Canada Life Centre in the Peg.

It has to be noted that Connor McDavid is on a historically good offensive tear with a nine-game heater that includes 10 goals and 14 assists over that span, and with these two teams playing just last night, it also has to be noted we could be treated to the goalie matchup of the year: Jack Campbell facing David Rittich. So be prepared for what should be a high-scoring game right off the jump. Oilers-Jets goes OVER 6.5 for my Silver Pick of the evening.

Bronze Selection

Auston Matthews Anytime Goal (-110)

Considering how good both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning are this season, we can likely expect these soon-to-be first-round foes to take this final stretch of the NHL schedule very seriously, as first-round home-ice advantage will clearly be a factor for two dangerous teams in their own rink. With that, I also expect this Maple Leafs group to not miss out on many opportune chances to put two points in their ledger. No beef with Canucks fans, but this is one of those situations for the Leafs on Saturday night against a Vancouver group that's witnessed a little bit of everything this season both on and off the ice – and not in a good sense.

Credit due to the Canucks, who have looked better and started to play Rick Tocchet-like hockey over the past six games, posting three wins and three losses over their last six. Vancouver also has wins in five-straight against Toronto at home, which is why instead of riding with the Leafs for an odd that is so not worth it, I am going with the player prop angle for a guy in Auston Matthews that needs to be a lot better offensively.

By his own standards, this has been a disappointing year for the reigning Hart and Ted Lindsay trophy winner, as Matthews has only two goals over his last seven contests and just 28 on the year overall. This feels like the perfect spot to break out of that slump against a Canucks club allowing the second-most goals in the league this year at a whopping 240 – only the Anaheim Ducks allow more (254). Matthews also owns Vancouver over the course of his career, registering 18 goals and four assists over just 20 regular-season meetings.

Matthews busts out of his slump with at least one goal tonight against the defensively-challenged Canucks, my Bronze Pick of the evening.

Side Bets

Nashville Predators @ Chicago Blackhawks – Pick: Blackhawks PL +1.5 (-145)

Minnesota Wild @ Calgary Flames – Pick: Wild ML (+130)

St. Louis Blues @ L.A. Kings – Pick: OVER 6.5 (-105)

Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting and fantasy hockey writer and podcast host with past experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks.

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Brad Hayward's Picks

Wow! is all I can say about the NHL trade deadline's activity and impact. Collectively, the 32 teams made the top teams better, and the bottom third drop into an abyss that only Connor Bedard can magically resurrect.  How unfair to a truly good and talented young player to know that he'll learn how to lose hockey games.  It's the reality of the draft process. 

For DFS betting, though, we see life as easier.  Simply look at Chicago and Arizona and wager on their opponents.  I follow hockey pretty closely, and found owls (WHOOO??) on the Blackhawks roster, after an unimpressive top line.  In the desert, Juuso Valimaki and Victor Soderstrom are the FIRST defensive pair for the Yotes.  Soderstrom has a minus-39 +/- in three partial AHL seasons.  I still don't understand the decision to trade a truly gifted 24-year-old defenseman.  Jakob Chychrun, signed at $4.6M through 2024-25, will earn under 20% of the combined salaries that the Coyotes will pay men not to play for them next year, even after Patrick Kane's and Andrew Ladd's contracts come off.  Continuing their self-inflicted misery is all I see. 

But today, the 'Yotes are off, and the Hawks host a Nashville team that sold off Mattias Ekholm, Mikael Granlund, and Tanner Jeannot.  With Filip Forsberg still out, their first line power-play forwards are Cody Glass, Thomas Novak, and Philip Tomasino.  I'll pass on that bet. Roman Josi can only do so much. 

Gold Selection

Detroit Red Wings @ New York Islanders – Pick: Islanders to win (-200 ML)

The post-Tyler Bertuzzi Wings aren't as awful as the teams I profiled above, but with Ville Husso out for this weekend, an Islanders team desperate for two points are the choice.  The Isles are missing Mathew Barzal and J-G Pageau, but their first power-play unit should carry the day.  Side Bet #1– Power-play goal for New York

Silver Selection

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Vancouver Canucks – Pick: Over 6.5 goals (-125)

The Leafs added defensive depth at the deadline, and Thatcher Demko is back in the Canucks' crease, so this makes sense, right?  But the firepower of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander will torch Vancouver, let alone the additions of Ryan O'Reilly, Noel Acciari, and Sam Lafferty proving their worth.  Side Bet #2 – Toronto covers (+) 1.5 goals in this one.  (+120) The loss to the Wild on Thursday won't be repeated.

Bronze Selection

St. Louis Blues @ Los Angeles Kings – Pick: Colton Parayko blocks 2+ SOG (-150)

The Kings became stronger, not so much the Blues. I considered a wager that Los Angeles would have 35 shots, but harder to find that on the DraftKings site for odds. So Parayko it is.  29 blocks in the past 10 games, I'd have taken the even-odds wager that he stops 3+ from getting to Jordan Binnington's crease. 

Side Bet #3 – Sidney Crosby has under 3 shots on goal vs. the Panthers.  (+100)

Parlay:  While either of Alexander Ovechkin or Brady Tkachuk taking 4+ shots might seem like a slam dunk, taking both of these bets is suddenly (+310 – for double the $100 going in), and money well spent.

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History:  It's been two weeks, but my 3–4 unimpressive finish on February 18 changes my season stats to:

Gold: 6-3-0

Silver: 3-5-1

Bronze: 4-5-0

Side bets: 17-7-0 (clearly, I should label ALL bets as "side bets")

Parlay: 1-1