Ramblings: Are the Lightning in Trouble? Kotkaniemi Breaks Out, Barbashev Fits In, and more … (Mar. 03)

Dobber

2023-03-06

Are the Lightning in trouble?

In that game they were down 5-1. Benching Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point actually helped them close the gap to a 5-3 final! How did those superstars respond, you ask? By laying a big, rotten egg. The Hurricanes hammered Tampa on Sunday 6-0. And in fact, in the second period the Lightning were credited with zero shots. Zero! And both Kucherov and Victor Hedman left the game that period. While Kucherov returned in the third period – Hedman did not. Hedman will be re-evaluated Monday.

But Tampa's troubles did not start on Sunday. In fact, they have not won in their last five games and have given up 27 goals. Andrei Vasilevskiy has eight Really Bad Starts (RBS) this season – four of them in his last seven games. Since February 18 he is 2-3-2, 3.59 GAA and 0.890 SV%. His Goals Saved Above Average is -3.340 in that span. A normally reliable goalie to roll with, now you need to consider the other goalies on your team for those weekly starts – and you certainly stay away from him in DFS. Until he bucks this slump, that is.

Toronto Maple Leafs fans are worried about getting past this team in the first round of the playoffs? If the Lightning can't fix this mess, then the Leafs have nothing to worry about!

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But that 6-0 Carolina win was all about the second line of Teuvo Teravainen, Martin Necas and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The latter picked up the first five-point game of his career and Teravainen tallied a hat trick. The last Carolina player to tally a five-point game? Rod Brind-Amour. Kotkaniemi's five points included four on the power play. He now has 13 points in his last 12 games – prior to that, it had looked like a lost season. See how quickly your opinion on a player's fantasy value can change? Kotkaniemi had been on pace to fall short of last season's 66-game total of 29 points. Now he's surpassed it in five fewer games.

Next up – Jesse Puljujarvi?

The Carolina power play had Brent Burns, who has been having a strong year at the age of 37. But Shayne Gostisbehere has taken that PP to another level. In two games with the Hurricanes he has four points – all of them on the power play. Burns and Gostisbehere had similar PP time over four minutes on Sunday, with the Burns' PP unit getting four shots on goal and seven shot attempts. The Ghost PP unit had eight shots on goal and 12 shot attempts.

The player hit the hardest fantasy-wise by the addition of Ghost is Brady Skjei, who has seen his PP time all but disappear. He has just six PPPts on the season, but it's better than nothing. You can now expect zero PPPts moving forward.

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The line combos for Vegas after the trade deadline, with Mark Stone, Will Carrier and Nicolas Roy out of the lineup:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
11:4921.9BLUEGER – KOLESAR – BRETT HOWDEN1106650.0181260.0
11:4321.7MARCHESSAULT – BARBASHEV – EICHEL1016366.7171063.0
9:4918.2KESSEL – STEPHENSON – COTTER01-14736.4151060.0
8:5816.6SMITH – KARLSSON – AMADIO01-12340.05838.5

It appears that Barbashev is just what the doctor ordered for Eichel. The two are seriously clicking, and Barbashev now has five points in four games since the trade. If I'm his agent, I re-sign with Vegas for a discount. At least for a year or two. Pad those stats and get the massive contract next time. If you thought 60 points was a breakout for Barbashev – wait until (if) he gets a full season on the Eichel line.

You know who's not a fan of the Barbashev acquisition? Chandler Stephenson owners. Banished to the third line, Stephenson is pointless in the four games since Barbashev arrived. His PP time has all but shriveled up.

Stephenson has gone 22 games without a power-play point. He had 12 of them in 41 games before that.

Jonathan Quick made his Vegas debut and stopped 25 of 28 shots. That's below average, but not horrible by any stretch. Adin Hill has been playing very well of late, so I would expect Hill gets to continue running with it.

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Mike Matheson is enjoying a career-best points-per-game average with Montreal, producing at a 54-point pace over his 29 games. He's showing more than enough to hold onto that top PP job for next season. He's a 70-game player, getting hurt is a near-certainty. But in those 70 games next year I can see 45 points out of him. He has points in seven of his last eight games.

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With his assist on Sunday, Jonathan Drouin has 13 points in his last 15 games. He scored his first of the season on Friday.

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Remember Dominik Kubalik's hot start? He had 25 points in his first 24 games. Even I thought he would be hard-pressed to fall short of 65. After all, he only needed 40 points in 58 games. Alas, he's going to indeed fall short of 65. And 60. And 55. Hell, even 50 points is in jeopardy. Kubalik has just 13 points in his last 38 games. I haven't seen a dropoff like that very often in my career. Hopefully, Kubalik owners were able to sell high in the first half of the season.

Owen Tippett led all Philadelphia forwards in ice time in the game against Detroit Sunday, at 24:09. It looks like he's John Tortorella's new pet. He played 27:40 in the prior game, and has topped 20 minutes in four of his last five games. This is a forward who didn't even have 120 NHL games under his belt prior to this season. Cam Atkinson, Tortorella's pet in Columbus, might be getting a little jealous as he watches from the press box…

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Keep an eye on Jesper Boqvist of New Jersey. As he approaches his breakout threshold, I'm starting to see his name on the scoresheet more often. Two goals on Sunday gives him 10 points in his last 17 games (0.59 points-per-game average). Not great numbers, but still – prior to that he had 38 in 154 games (0.24). Upside is in the middle-six, so not a first-liner, but he had been looking like a bit of a bust.

With Jakob Chychrun and Gostisbehere gone, Juuso Valimaki is really starting to thrive. Two more assists Sunday gives Valimaki 12 points in his last 13 games. Health is a big risk with this guy, but if he can stay healthy next year he is looking like a potential stud for 2023-24. A dark horse if there ever was one.

Pretty good linemates for Timo Meier in his first game with the Devils: Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. It took that line just a few shifts to get on the board – Meier scored at 9:09 of the first.

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I still owe you a Keeper Rankings for this month – I had been waiting for the Trade Dudline, and have them mostly done. Look for them Monday or Tuesday at the latest.

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Our DFS subscription is now on sale for $74.99 until the playoffs. That's right: 25% off! Order it here!

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See you next Monday.

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UPCOMING GAMES

May 17 - 20:05 DAL vs WPG

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
AARON EKBLAD FLA
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
DANILA YUROV MIN
BROCK NELSON COL
ELIAS PETTERSSON VAN

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JOSEPH WOLL TOR
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK WPG
ANTHONY STOLARZ TOR
SERGEI BOBROVSKY FLA
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MIN Players
22.3 KIRILL KAPRIZOV JOEL ERIKSSON EK MATT BOLDY
13.9 MATS ZUCCARELLO RYAN HARTMAN MARCUS FOLIGNO
6.7 GUSTAV NYQUIST MARCUS JOHANSSON FREDERICK GAUDREAU

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