Ramblings: Goalies; Sanderson; Duclair; Dach; Fox Without Lindgren & More (Mar 22)

Alexander MacLean

2023-03-22

I took over Dobber's Ramblings back on Monday, and have since realized that I neglected to mention that the swap was just for Dobber to enjoy a slightly extended and well-earned March Break with the family. Back to your regular scheduled programming now.

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We're well into fantasy playoffs now, and it seems that the goaltending has started to get a little wacky. Even not accounting for injuries, the Devils have been starting Akira Schmid more, the Senators are cycling down to their fifth-string netminder, Sam Montembeault has made four straight starts, the Kraken are turning to Joey Daccord in a game against a superior team in their conference, and the Bruins won't give Jeremy Swayman two starts in a row despite posting back-to-back shutouts – for that last it's tough to fault the Bruins as the rotation has worked well all year.

It's that time of year where the backups goalies gain a little bit more value as they see some more starts due to starters resting. Additionally, teams out of the playoff race have the double-incentive to try starting their third or fourth string guys to see what the young goalies have, as well as sitting their better goalie for the purpose of ending up with better lottery odds.

Joel Hofer is one that has been an excellent add of late, with two wins in his first three games, allowing only four combined goals. He was a shootout loss last night away from a perfect three-for-three start to the year.

More often though you end up with something like what Charlie Lindgren and Daniil Tarasov put together in their head to head matchup last night, each allowing six goals in regulation and then Lindgren spotting Columbus the OT-winner to give them the extra-point on the night.

Alex Lyon also got lit up, allowing five goals on only 23 shots, while Mads Sogaard – who had allowed four or more goals or more in – ended up only allowing two goals to the Bruins on 35 shots. Good luck projecting the good starts from the bad, but usually a positive place to start is running with the home teams.

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Tops on the Sens in ice time last night was not Thomas Chabot, it wasn't Jakub Chychrun, and it wasn't their defensive specialist in Artem Zub as they tried to contain the Bruins. Leading the way was Jake Sanderson, as the team held Boston to only two goals against, with one of those coming from the dangerous Boston power play.

The 20-year-old is already up to 29 points in 66 games, so it's safe to say he's going to be putting up a 30-point rookie campaign. It may be boosted by his power play production, accounting for 16 points already. With the talent Ottawa has up front in the top-six though, there is room for three fantasy-relevant defencemen, though none of them may hit their ceilings as a result.

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The other thing to be wary of with goalies, is the young guys that tail off in the last half or quarter of the season. Jake Oettinger is not a bad goalie, but he has had a rough go of it the last three games. His 48 games played in a season last year was a career high for him in any league, and he is now up to 54 after last night. Owners may need to be a big more selective starting him the rest of the way. Luckily, Dallas has a fairly easy schedule to close out the month, but the road start against Colorado on April 1st is one I would try to avoid if you can.

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Anthony Duclair has been slow to get going after returning just a few weeks ago from an Achilles injury suffered last year. After we saw Max Pacioretty re-injure his, I think the Panthers played it a little more cautious giving Duclair all the time he needed to get fully healthy. However, now he is out of the lineup for what was noted as an illness. In spite of that update, we do still have to be cautious with how we treat him moving forward because of the increased re-injury risk. If he can make it through this coming summer without any setbacks though, then he should be a good bounce-back candidate next year after a full offseason of training.

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Kirby Dach returned to the lineup for Montreal, and promptly scored eight minutes into his return. His line scored two goals, and he ended up playing just over 20-minutes. Dach had scored six points in his last seven games before his injury forced him to miss 16 games, but it looks like he has picked back up right where he left off.

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In one of my head to head matchups this week, I own the Washington tandem, and my opponent owns the Calgary set. Neither has been very productive over the last month, but at least Washington hasn't been hitting rock bottom with eight-goals against in a game. Jacob Markstrom should be an excellent buy-low candidate in the offseason for fantasy GMs, but I do also wonder if we see an NHL GM swoop in looking to buy-low as well. The Flames may test the market on him as they could very reasonably run Dan Vladar and Dustin Wolf next year, and will be tight against the cap.

I would have more faith owning Markstrom next year in fantasy if he doesn't get moved though, as goalies in their first year with new teams often take a step back – Darcy Kuemper, Jack Campbell, and Phillipp Grubauer as recent big-money examples.

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Ryan Lindgren returned from injury for the Rangers, and played 10 minutes notching a shot and a block before departing again with what appeared to be an injury. Lindgren was back on the top pair with Adam Fox, who hasn't exactly "struggled" without Lindgren, but did see his scoring rate drop from 0.93 points per game with Lindgren in the lineup, to 0.7 without him. If he misses much more time, then we may not see Fox close to a point-per-game to close out the year. Only two of those points in his last 10 games has come at five-on-five, which would be where Fox is missing Lindgren's support the most.

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Rick Roos’ monthly mailbag column runs next week and he has room to answer more questions. To get yours to him for the deepest dive you’ll find anywhere, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.

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The Winnipeg Jets went 0/6 on the power play, putting them at 0/19 in their last five games. Rick Bowness may have done wonders for Josh Morrissey's game, but his inability to get results on the power play with so many skilled options may end up costing the team a playoff spot.

Which one happens first: Nikolaj Ehlers finally gets time with the top power play unit, or Ville Heinola is called up to help the power play? My money is on Heinola, as it has now been years that we have been saying this about Ehlers. He must have done something terrible for ownership to be telling a second coach to hold him back.

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Boy am I ever upset now that I traded away Luke Evangelista in the offseason to acquire Mackenzie Weegar. Weegar has struggled mightily, though it can largely be attributed to systems and bad luck. His on-ice shooting percentage is under 6.5, which is extremely low. That is also a percentage of a lower total, as Calgary is not scoring as much as Weegar's Florida teams have the last couple years. Weegar has seven points in his last 12 games.

Meanwhile, Evangelista is already up to nine points in 11 games, putting up 2.5 shots per game while skating 15 minutes a night. He's also not feeding on power play points with one so far. His most common linemates are his AHL teammates from the first half of the year, the streaking Tommy Novak, to go along with wingers Kiefer Sherwood and Zach Sanford. Not exactly a who's who of elite set-up men, even among Nashville skaters. Speaking of, this is being done with Roman Josi having missed the last two games. Don't expect this to continue very long for any of the Predators, but ride the wave this year as long as you can.

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Our DFS subscription is now on sale for $74.99 until the playoffs. That’s right: 25% off! Order it here!

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Let's fit Matt Boldy in just before the buzzer for fun:

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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

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