Capped: Tippett, Novak, Jensen, and Help For Fantasy Playoffs

Jamie Molloy

2023-03-24

For the next couple of weeks, I plan on doing an episodic series that will involve me breaking down a few players per week that I think are valuable additions for your fantasy playoffs. This is probably the tensest time of the year when it comes to calculating who you should target on the waiver wire and who to avoid. In articles past I have had tables showing current season production and past season production, that will be changing for this little mini-series as I'll only be showing the current stats for the player. Along with what team they face on what days and the opponent's goals against average for the season. The bios for each player will be a little shorter than normal as I am going to try and fit a couple of extra names into each week's article, along with the honorable mentions list.

This article is going to be for the upcoming week, so from March 27th, up until April 2nd.

#1) Owen Tippett – RW – Philadelphia Flyers
Contract: $1.5M – 2 Years remaining
Roster Percentages: Fantrax – 47%, ESPN – 23.6%

GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
6521181911001106363.0%16:55
Opposing TeamScheduleOpposing Team Stats
Montreal CanadiensMarch 28th (Tuesday)2.77 GF/GP & 3.69 GA/GP
Ottawa SenatorsMarch 30th (Thursday)3.08 GF/GP & 3.24 GA/GP
Buffalo SabresApril 1st (Saturday)3.57 GF/GP & 3.73 GA/GP
Pittsburgh PenguinsApril 2nd (Sunday)3.21 GF/GP & 3.23 GA/GP

I'll start by saying I was very skeptical about the return that the Flyers got for Claude Giroux, but Tippett has come into is own it seems and is setting career highs for himself. After bouncing around the Flyers' top-nine forward group for most of the season, as of late he has seemingly cemented himself in their top-six and he has been routinely skating on the top line as of late. The linemates that he plays with varies, but it usually involved some of the following: James van Riemsdyk, Noah Cates, Morgan Frost, Kevin Hayes.

As a player who makes $1.5-million, you expect smaller numbers than what he is providing. While scoring points at a 0.6 points/game rate, with a 49.2 point pace (through 82 games), Tippett is hammering the puck at the net with nearly three shots per game. This player has a tremendous ceiling it seems like, and the coaching staff are falling in love with him, from what I can tell, he should be a mainstay on the Flyers top line for the foreseeable future while other young players develop.

To me, Tippett is one of the better waiver wire players available currently for a number of factors. The Flyers play four games this week, all of them are currently not in a playoff spot (Pittsburgh being the closest to one as of the time of writing this). All of the teams that they play have a goals against per game of about 3.25 and larger, Tippett is routinely seeing more than 2:30 of powerplay time each game and the penalty kill for the Sabres and the Canadiens are worse than the Flyers and their disappointing 73.6% penalty kill rate. The average ice time may be below 17 minutes, but within the last 10 games he has averaged less than his season average twice, and in seven of the last 10 games he has had more than 20 minutes of time on ice.

From the data, it looks like Tippett may be an excellent streaming for teams in the playoffs, and with him being such a young player, teams who are on the outside looking in should give him a look due to his positioning in the organization and what his future looks like.


#2) Thomas Novak – C – Nashville Predators
Contract: $750K expiring this summer, $800K extension – 1 Year
Roster Percentages: Fantrax – 35%, ESPN – 9.3%

GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
381418737051542.6%13:42
Opposing TeamScheduleOpposing Team Stats
Boston BruinsMarch 28th (Tuesday)3.76 GF/GP & 2.11 GA/GP
Pittsburgh PenguinsMarch 30th (Thursday)3.21 GF/GP & 3.23 GA/GP
St. Louis BluesApril 1st (Saturday)3.10 GF/GP & 3.61 GA/GP

One of the more surprising explosions of the later part of the season has been Novak, currently slotted on the second line along side of Kiefer Sherwood & Luke Evangelista, so a fairly young line. The Nashville Predators are currently relying on their younger roster players currently to help reshape the team going forward. Nashville has been an old team for a while, and they're finally getting younger. A player like Novak who has played pro hockey for a few years now definitely has the experience to be able to step in and potentially be a consistent scoring forward.

During his time in the minors he has been over a point per game through the 2020-21 season, along with this current season with 26 points in 25 games. Sure that is a fairly small sample size and not that much higher than a point per game, but its not every day you see point per game players in pro hockey at any level. While Novak's peripheral categories are kind of lacking, he is in a scoring position on a young team that is trying to gain experience and it seems that the Predators are trusting the 25-year-old to step in and play a decent role. In terms of his zone start percentages, he is being played in the offensive zone for a total of 73.2% of his assignments.

While making less than a $1-million on his current deal and his upcoming deal, you may be able to have a depth scoring option for a rather cheap price. I don't expect this point pace to continue, but that being said even if he can be a 45 point player going forward, that is a roster player on some fantasy teams. His schedule may not be the best for this week, but I also put him here due to how few leagues he is being rostered in, and the fact that next week Nashville plays four games.

The former third round pick shouldn't really be getting a large salary increase in the next few years, so this may be a low risk, high reward type of pickup if you can keep him going into years beyond this one. Nashville is going towards being a younger team as I said, and with that they may not be the best team going forward, so that may hinder Novak from getting a big pay day based on production of what's around him. Overall, I like Novak going forward for a lot of reasons, but there is reason to be nervous for his future.

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#3) Nick Jensen – D – Washington Capitals
Contract: $2.5M expiring this summer, $4.05M extension – 3 Years
Roster Percentages: Fantrax – 25%, ESPN – 9.2%

GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
674229401951160%20:36
Opposing TeamScheduleOpposing Team Stats
New York IslandersMarch 29th (Wednesday)2.99 GF/GP & 2.68 GA/GP
Tampa Bay LightningMarch 30th (Thursday)3.43 GF/GP & 3.04 GA/GP
New York RangersApril 2nd (Sunday)3.34 GF/GP & 2.70 GA/GP


Not the flashiest player out there, but Jensen offers a lot more than other players do when it comes to the peripheral areas such as hits, blocks, and TOI. When it comes to playing in a category league, as most salary cap leagues are formatted in such a way, you need to have role players who can stockpile peripheral stats in droves. While Jensen doesn't put up 100 points each season, he is having a career season for points with 26 (4 goals) in less games than he had in his former career year (last year).

It is always hard to replace peripheral areas because you still want the player to have some sort of offensive upside, and while the players who put up 100+ hits and blocks each year generally don't rack up points like other players do. You can find a player like Nick Jensen who plays on a team with the player who is most likely going to hold the record for most goals scored by a single player in NHL history in the coming years in Alex Ovechkin. With these types of players, individual offensive skill isn't the most important trait here when evaluating offensive output, looking at what players they're surrounded by is a better way to judge their ability to produce points.

Jensen is averaging 2:28 on the penalty kill this season, due to the high volume of penalty kill time, maybe he can get on the scoresheet in that regard for you. Washington has scored four shorthanded goals this season, Jensen has a point while playing shorthanded. You can't predict shorthanded points as they're so random, all you can do is realistically get players who put you in a good position to potentially get one or two of them to help seal a category.

When it comes to the salary of the player, $2.5-million isn't a whole lot of money for your fantasy team, realistically you should be able to find a way to fit them into your team at this point in the year, if you're picking this type of player up odds are you're dropping someone or somebody has just been placed on the injured reserved list. If this is a player that you're keeping going into the next season, I think a price point of $4.05-million is fine. He has historically been posting solid campaigns in the areas where he is value lies. To me paying that price is no different than paying a forward that amount if they're putting up a middle of the road season when it comes to offensive numbers.

If you're looking to discuss anything hockey with me, check out my Twitter account (@JamieMolloy_DH), as well as on the articles themselves!

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