Cap League Goalie Rankings – March 2023
Alexander MacLean
2023-03-26
Luckily after spending a lot of time revamping the skater rankings, to have the goalie list similarly represent the best players first, while still having the value column as a reference, all I had to do was sort by the Value column first, and then the Tier column. Top-tier goalies are very hard to come by, and after the year Ilya Sorokin has had, he rightly deserves to be number one. A case might be able to be made for Igor Shesterkin, but the difference in salary breaks any tie you might be able to come up with.
Boston having two goalies in the top-five is a testament to three things:
-The absolute dominance their team has displayed this year.
-The excellent numbers both goalies have posted on reasonable contracts.
-The goalie rotation they have strictly kept that has allowed both to be relevant in any league format.
If Swayman's impending contract forces one of them to move on, then the increase in volume should offset any decrease in ratio stats, and both should maintain elite numbers. The remaining goalie would also likely see an increase in volume, but that may also be offset by the Bruins coming back down to earth, especially if Patrice Bergeron and/or David Krejci don't re-sign.
Standard pre-rankings note:
Cap hit is used for the player cost, so if your league uses salary or AAV, please account for that, as it can greatly change the impact of entry-level deals. The rankings are set up so as to provide the most value in the current season, while providing some value in future years, based on modeling for predicted salary increases and production growth.
The stats used for the goaltenders attempt to balance both ratio stats as well as volume. For those of you with variations towards either end of the spectrum, leaning more towards volume or rate stats, you will want to account for that change in value. Same thing goes for setting variations such as: number of teams, salary space, or roster positions. This list is made to be a baseline guide for player evaluation, and to promote discussion and understanding of how to optimize rosters in a cap league setting.
The goalie list comes not only with a value system, but with value tiers. The tiers (also computed by a formula of mine) represent a more general view on a goalie's value taking into account a few overarching factors. Cheap backups can have higher ratings but show up lower down the tier rankings. The high ranking is due to their low cap hits coupled with an established floor with some possible upside. The lower tier is a result of them having uncertain volume, and the lower likelihood of hitting their upside in any given year. In general, aim to have the highest rated players if you are looking to be most cap efficient, but use the tiers if you just want to focus on having the best goalies and you are comfortable paying a little more for that security (my preference is usually to lean towards the more cap efficient options because of how variable goalies can be).
If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the ranking system, please let me know. You can find me on Twitter here @alexdmaclean.
Comments help with optimizing the values, because they're not perfect and they never will be.
Rank | Name | Age | Cap Hit | Yrs | Value | Tier | Prev Rnk |
1 | Ilya Sorokin | 27 | $4,000,000 | 2 | 247.35 | 1 | 5 |
2 | Igor Shesterkin | 27 | $5,666,667 | 3 | 238.41 | 1 | 2 |
3 | Linus Ullmark | 29 | $5,000,000 | 3 | 222.66 | 1 | 8 |
4 | Jake Oettinger | 24 | $4,000,000 | 3 | 219.77 | 1 | 4 |
5 | Jeremy Swayman | 24 | $925,000 | 1 | 247.60 | 2 | 3 |
6 | Alexandar Georgiev | 27 | $3,400,000 | 3 | 241.79 | 2 | 9 |
7 | Vitek Vanecek | 27 | $3,400,000 | 3 | 221.29 | 2 | 6 |
8 | Connor Hellebuyck | 29 | $6,166,666 | 2 | 210.15 | 2 | 11 |
9 | Juuse Saros | 27 | $5,000,000 | 3 | 205.68 | 2 | 10 |
10 | Tristan Jarry | 27 | $3,500,000 | 1 | 185.80 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Frederik Andersen | 33 | $4,500,000 | 1 | 184.38 | 2 | 25 |
12 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 28 | $9,500,000 | 6 | 180.21 | 2 | 14 |
13 | Darcy Kuemper | 32 | $5,250,000 | 5 | 167.53 | 2 | 16 |
14 | Jacob Markstrom | 33 | $6,000,000 | 4 | 154.48 | 2 | 19 |
15 | Jack Campbell | 31 | $5,000,000 | 5 | 148.27 | 2 | 26 |
16 | Spencer Knight | 21 | $925,000 | 1 | 142.32 | 2 | 15 |
17 | Stuart Skinner | 24 | $750,000 | 1 | 271.88 | 3 | 40 |
18 | Logan Thompson | 26 | $766,667 | 3 | 404.09 | 3 | 1 |
19 | Filip Gustavsson | 24 | $787,500 | 1 | 288.42 | 3 | 13 |
20 | Ilya Samsonov | 26 | $1,800,000 | 1 | 188.38 | 3 | 7 |
21 | Ville Husso | 28 | $4,750,000 | 3 | 173.06 | 3 | 22 |
22 | Jake Allen | 32 | $2,875,000 | 1 | 160.58 | 3 | 27 |
23 | Pyotr Kochetkov | 23 | $842,500 | 1 | 135.65 | 3 | 35 |
24 | Thatcher Demko | 27 | $5,000,000 | 4 | 130.48 | 3 | 36 |
25 | Sergei Bobrovsky | 34 | $10,000,000 | 4 | 128.27 | 3 | 43 |
26 | Karel Vejmelka | 26 | $2,725,000 | 3 | 194.19 | 4 | 55 |
27 | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 24 | $837,500 | 2 | 192.84 | 4 | 21 |
28 | Casey DeSmith | 31 | $1,800,000 | 2 | 183.39 | 4 | 39 |
29 | Carter Hart | 24 | $3,979,000 | 2 | 172.25 | 4 | 20 |
30 | Sam Montembeault | 26 | $1,000,000 | 2 | 169.12 | 4 | 48 |
31 | Adin Hill | 26 | $2,175,000 | 1 | 166.72 | 4 | 33 |
32 | Jordan Binnington | 29 | $6,000,000 | 5 | 163.59 | 4 | 17 |
33 | Dan Vladar | 25 | $750,000 | 1 | 154.06 | 4 | 29 |
34 | Connor Ingram | 25 | $733,333 | 1 | 150.44 | 4 | 53 |
35 | Anton Forsberg | 30 | $2,750,000 | 3 | 149.66 | 4 | 24 |
36 | Scott Wedgewood | 30 | $1,000,000 | 2 | 143.37 | 4 | 49 |
37 | Antti Raanta | 33 | $2,000,000 | 1 | 143.00 | 4 | 42 |
38 | Cam Talbot | 35 | $3,666,666 | 1 | 142.00 | 4 | 34 |
39 | Charlie Lindgren | 29 | $1,100,000 | 3 | 141.62 | 4 | 31 |
40 | David Rittich | 30 | $900,000 | 1 | 139.11 | 4 | 59 |
41 | Akira Schmid | 22 | $850,833 | 2 | 137.27 | 4 | 61 |
42 | Philipp Grubauer | 31 | $5,900,000 | 5 | 117.60 | 4 | 52 |
43 | John Gibson | 29 | $6,400,000 | 5 | 116.89 | 4 | 51 |
44 | Pavel Francouz | 32 | $2,000,000 | 2 | 113.25 | 4 | 23 |
45 | Elvis Merzlikins | 28 | $5,400,000 | 5 | 106.51 | 4 | 46 |
46 | Robin Lehner | 31 | $5,000,000 | 3 | 23.00 | 4 | NR |
47 | Pheonix Copley | 31 | $825,000 | 1 | 199.99 | 5 | 18 |
48 | Martin Jones | 33 | $2,000,000 | 1 | 170.61 | 5 | 28 |
49 | James Reimer | 35 | $2,250,000 | 1 | 149.41 | 5 | 30 |
50 | Joonas Korpisalo | 28 | $1,300,000 | 1 | 148.42 | 5 | 47 |
51 | Anthony Stolarz | 29 | $950,000 | 1 | 144.37 | 5 | 45 |
52 | Spencer Martin | 27 | $762,500 | 2 | 137.66 | 5 | 32 |
53 | Marc-Andre Fleury | 38 | $3,500,000 | 2 | 136.80 | 5 | 37 |
54 | Matt Murray | 28 | $6,250,000 | 2 | 121.51 | 5 | 38 |
55 | Petr Mrazek | 31 | $3,800,000 | 2 | 119.20 | 5 | 44 |
56 | Mads Sogaard | 22 | $925,000 | 2 | 114.48 | 5 | NR |
57 | Eric Comrie | 27 | $1,800,000 | 2 | 105.76 | 5 | 50 |
58 | Joel Hofer | 22 | $795,000 | 1 | 101.16 | 5 | NR |
59 | Jonathan Quick | 37 | $5,800,000 | 1 | 94.21 | 5 | NR |
60 | Daniil Tarasov | 23 | $1,050,000 | 3 | 89.30 | 5 | 62 |
61 | Lukas Dostal | 22 | $822,500 | 1 | 82.68 | 5 | NR |
62 | Ivan Prosvetov | 24 | $750,000 | 1 | 79.25 | 5 | NR |