Ramblings: Nichushkin, Valimaki, Arvidsson on Fire; Joshua, Blais Loving New Opportunities … (Mar. 27)

Dobber

2023-03-27

It's that time of year again. Pre-order the 17th annual Interactive Playoff Draft List here. I expect it to be finalized the middle of next week, around April 6 or 7.

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Valeri Nichushkin continues to roll, in the absence of Gabriel Landeskog. He's now up to 42 points in 43 games, and has 20 in his last 15. As a 6-4 player who passed his 400-game breakout threshold late last season, the numbers are expected. But the Landeskog injury takes him from a 65-point pace on a lower line to an 80-point pace on the top line. With Landeskog back soon, it will be interesting to see if Nichushkin gets bumped, or if Landeskog knocks Evan Rodrigues off the second line (with JT Compher and Alex Newhook). My guess is we'll see Landeskog around mid-April. He's currently skating with the team in a non-contact jersey.

It's amazing that Bowen Byram is up to eight goals on the season when he's been injured for half of it, and has been playing second-fiddle (more like fourth fiddle) for the other half. Entrenched on the second pairing and second PP unit, Byram has nonetheless been quite productive with 36 points in his last 64 games (46-point pace). Talent is unquestioned, but durability is another matter – let's see if he can play 70-plus games.

One player who is having a breakout year at the 400-game mark who is not an exceptionally-sized player is JT Compher. Compher, at 6-0, 190 should have had this 200 games ago according to our model. A reminder that the model is only a guide, and does have exceptions. I should also note that Compher wouldn't be having quite this season without the Landeskog injury. That injury has allowed Compher to see nearly a full minute per game of added PP time, which has added more than a handful of points to his total. He should end the season with around 55 points. This is a contract year, and he'll carry this UFA season into a nice contract somewhere else. A great time to get 20 goals (he'll likely reach) and 55 points for the first time. With 18 of his points coming with Mikko Rantanen on the ice with him, it's probably safe to say that he won't match this production on a new team. So that would make this summer his "sell high" window in dynasty leagues.

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Since February 11, when Jakob Chychrun was first taken out of the Arizona lineup for the last time, Juuso Valimaki has 18 points in 22 games, with five of those on the power play as well as 51 BLKS. A potential 60-point defenseman next season.

Meanwhile, in that same span, Chychrun has five points in 12 games with Ottawa.

Is a domino effect of using Valimaki instead of Chychrun a more productive Clayton Keller? Valimaki's assist rate has been off the charts, and Keller has been a scoring machine during those 22 games. Keller's numbers, with his goal on Sunday against Colorado: 22 GP, 17-18-35. Before that, with Chychrun as the quarterback, Keller had 52 GP, 19-26-45. That's a significant difference.

Prospect Nathan Smith was finally called up on Friday. I had him pegged to make the team in the fall, but he obviously wasn't ready. His AHL numbers have been modest (37 points in 58 games, minus-12), and at 24 years of age he doesn't have a big window to stick. Smith has been falling down my Keeper League Prospects Rankings steadily, and at this point looks to have third-line potential with average NHL certainty. He's playing just eight or nine minutes a game for the Coyotes (so far), with minimal impact. He does have 150-Hits+ potential, for leagues that value that.

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Matt Duchene left the game against the Leafs on Sunday, playing just 7:52.

And yes indeed – this team looks very different from a month ago. Cody Glass (two points in his last nine games despite top-line ice time and PP time), Luke Evangelista (nine points in 14 games, though pointless in his last three), Philip Tomasino (nine points in his last nine games) and Tommy Novak (23 points in his last 20 games) have each taken on top-six roles thanks to the injuries. Novak and Tomasino in particular are establishing themselves as top sixers for next season, while Glass is still in that second-third-line 'tweener' category. Evangelista is showing that he is likely a future top-sixer, but I suspect he may see some AHL time in 2023-24 before making the jump for good.

With Roman Josi out, Tyson Barrie has six points in four games.

John Tavares had himself a hell of game Sunday, scoring a goal and an assist – and leaving the game with an injury. And then he returned to the game later to score again.

Here's the Tavares (apparently minor) injury:

Whatever the injury was, there was obviously no break or he wouldn't have returned.

William Nylander is enjoying a career season, already at career-high production (81 points). But he has just two in his last seven games and was held off the scoresheet in six of them. Prior to the slump, he was looking at a 100-point campaign. That seems doubtful now.

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It's hard to believe that David Pastrnak hadn't reached 50 goals in a season before, but at any rate – he's there now. Sunday he scored number 50 and 51, and sits nine behind Connor McDavid for the Rocket Richard with nine games left. So the Rocket is pretty much wrapped up. In third place is Rantanen at 48, followed by Leon Draisaitl at 45. The top three appears to be set.

This was a game in which the Bruins rested Hampus Lindholm, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. "Load management" has begun…

Jesse Puljujarvi was scratched for the first time since joining the Hurricanes. He has yet to record a point with Carolina (eight games), though not for lack of trying – he has 19 SOG in that span. His xG and possession metrics continue to look good, but if the results aren't there, he's going to have to justify a spot in the lineup.

Sebastian Aho has seven points in his last five games and is slowly battling back to his customary point-per-game level. One of the most reliable producers in fantasy hockey, Aho rarely misses games and regardless of if he starts slow or hits a slump – he is going to get the numbers you expect.

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In the 27 games since Rick Tocchet took over as Vancouver's head coach, Andrei Kuzmenko has 16 goals and 25 points, including two assists on Sunday. Amazing that the Canucks signed this guy last summer – got him for nothing. He's might get 40 goals!

Vancouver's top scorers since Tocchet took over on January 23:

NameGPGAPTSPTS/GP
ELIAS PETTERSSON271623391.44
J.T. MILLER261121321.23
QUINN HUGHES27126271.00
ANDREI KUZMENKO27169250.93
BROCK BOESER27616220.81
CONOR GARLAND27513180.67
ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER24710170.71
DAKOTA JOSHUA2756110.41

Sticking out on this list – Dakota Joshua. Joshua is a hard-hitting tough guy not known for his points, but he has 11 under Tocchet. He had just nine in 43 games before that. His ice time has gone up nearly two full minutes per game and his Hits/GP is 3.29 under Tocchet. That's an increase of over 0.5 each game.

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Joel Hofer had been playing extremely well for the Blues in his few appearances. But on Sunday he ran into the juggernaut Kings. The Kings are an underrated team. They sit seventh in the league overall. But they are 14th in goals allowed (17th on a per-game basis). They were winning games with bad goaltending! Pheonix Copley is an 0.895 goaltender over his last 23 games – and he's only lost three times!

Anyway, the Kings chased Hofer out of the net with five goals on 17 shots. It's absolutely nuts that the Kings nearly blew a 5-0 lead.

Viktor Arvidsson, one of the streakier players out there, continues his hot run with his third consecutive multi-point game. Seven points in that span.

Sean Durzi returned to the Los Angeles lineup and notched a pair of assists. He mans the second PP unit while Drew Doughty mans the first PP unit. However, Durzi's unit scored three PP goals (Arvidsson, Trevor Moore and Phillip Danault), so on this night – that could have been called the first PP unit.

Since returning to the club that drafted him, St. Louis, Sammy Blais has eight goals, 15 points and 90 (!) Hits in 22 games. Nearly a point-per-game average and more than four Hits per game.

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A couple of undrafted NCAA prospects that we profiled in the Midseason Guide have signed with NHL teams over the weekend. Parker Ford signed with Winnipeg and Max Sasson signed with Vancouver.

On Sasson, who signed out of Western Michigan: Sasson is the third member of the high-scoring Western Michigan line featuring the above-mentioned Ryan McAllister and Jason Polin – all of whom are undrafted. He has been described as a good all-around player who centers the line, although he may have the lowest scoring upside among the three. (McAllister and Polin have not yet signed with an NHL team)

On Ford, who signed out of Providence: Despite not being drafted, Ford played in the World Junior Championship for the USA in 2020. The 5-9 center has a relatively low ceiling but is known for providing a lot of hustle. His work ethic could land him a spot on an NHL team someday, although he projects to be a middle-six forward at best.

Matthew Coronato, the 16th ranked prospect on my Top Fantasy Prospects list, has signed his entry-level contract with the Flames. With Calgary battling to get into a playoff spot, I'd be surprised if they waited long before inserting him into the lineup.

Another highly-touted prospect also signed on the weekend. Sean Farrell is one of Montreal's top prospects. I had him at 136th on the prospects list, but he should move up a few slots with the signing. He is a smaller player at 5-9 and odds are he will need a couple of years in the AHL – or he'll need a couple of lesser-production NHL seasons. Either way, I don't think he'll help fantasy squads over the next two years. But when he gets going, I think he has first-line upside. You'll just have to wait five or six years for it. Farrell had 53 points in just 34 games for Harvard, finishing fourth in the NCAA.

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Our DFS subscription is now on sale for $74.99 until the playoffs. That's right: 25% off! Order it here!

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I'm away next Monday, but I'll see you in a couple of weeks!

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Starting Goalies

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JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

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MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
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LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
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LINE COMBOS

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19.8 TEUVO TERAVAINEN ILYA MIKHEYEV JASON DICKINSON
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11.9 NICK FOLIGNO RYAN DONATO CONNOR BEDARD

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