Ramblings: 2022-23 Surprises and Disappointments; Late Season Hot Streaks from Novak, Pietrangelo, Perron, Mercer, Levi & More (Apr 5)
Alexander MacLean
2023-04-05
Congrats to those that have already wrapped up fantasy leagues and brought home some hardware. The only one of mine that I can still win this year runs the finals up to the final day of the regular season. Big nights from Jason Robertson and Vitek Vanecek have me in the driver's seat thus far. Fingers crossed on it!
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I mentioned David Perron last week because he had scored a hat-trick and had a hot-streak going, and he goes and scores another three points this week, so I need to bring him up again. I blame the adjustment period on the new team for the decline in his scoring this year, more so than any age-related decline. He's the kind of savvy and toolsy player like Joe Pavelski, who will be able to produce well into his late 30s.
Detroit on the whole is a young team, and as the improve over the next few years, 28-year-old Ville Husso will just be coming into his own as a starting goalie too. He has struggled a little in the second-half of the year, but that is expected from goalies that don't have experience with heavier workloads. After getting two-weeks off between starts, Husso came back and pitched a shutout last night. Once he builds up his stamina, his first-quarter stats (9-3-3 record / 2.58GAA / .912sv%) could be similar to what we see from him across a full year.
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Devon Levi put up his second solid performance, and may give the Sabres their best chance to win-out this year, which is what they are going to have to do to have a shot at making the playoffs. It's likely irrelevant though, but with an eye on next year, getting an extended audition should also be the best option for the team. Levi is showing that he isn't out of his depth at the moment. It may be tough to unseat Ukko-Pekka Luokkannen and Eric Comrie for a full-time spot out of training camp.
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As a short-term "big surprise" (more on those later), Tommy Novak scored another two goals. He also assisted on the OT-winner by Cody Glass, who has also cemented a top-six spot for next season with his play of late. The former sixth overall pick has taken a while to get going, but it does look like there is still some runway for him to work with, to top his current 40-point pace in future seasons.
Alex Pietrangelo matched Novak with two of his own. He's having quite the resurrection this season, and he really seems to thrive with Theodore out of the lineup, as is the case at the moment.
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Anthony Beauvillier has seem a slight uptick in his production since moving to Vancouver in the Bo Horvat trade. His deployment has been very inconsistent, and he hasn't been seeing any power play time of late. There is some upside for an eventual 50+ point season if he getsthe right deployment, but there's no guarantee of it. Something to keep an eye on for next year.
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You can buy the Dobber Hockey playoff guide now – get it here. Get ahead of your planning, and you can always re-download it for the most up-to-date rankings up to the end of the season.
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Biggest surprises:
In the preseason predictions I had noted Dougie Hamilton as my big bounce-back player. I'm very happy with that, and managed to nab him in two leagues to reap the rewards. However, I didn't see the biggest rejuvenation coming from Erik Karlsson, turning back the clock and putting up a historic season. This is especially impressive with how poorly San Jose has done in the standings this year. With the overall quality of the team having dropped off, and without a lot of internal growth expected for next year, it stands to reason that Karlsson's numbers will drop off to some extent.
Another big jump from a defenceman is the rise we saw in Josh Morrissey's play and production. He had been a point-per-game player up until mid-March, when he left a game against the Florida Panthers due to a lower-body injury. With the Jets in the thick of a playoff race, it could be that Morrissey is playing through a nagging injury, and that is why his numbers have slumped a little of late. Either way, a 70-point season is incredible, and it doesn't seem to be largely inflated by unsustainable percentages. However, the uncertainty with the roster construction and the coaching staff, could add some bumps in the road moving forward depending on the path the team takes.
One of the players I had to give up to acquire Hamilton in one league, was Martin Necas, who I have to admit I thought was relatively cooked, and at the end of his developmental runway. I viewed him as a young winger that would be scoring 40-50 points for the foreseeable future. He then proceeded to hit the 40-point mark by the mid-way point of the season, again showing that regardless of circumstances, you shouldn't count anyone out before they have a chance to show you what they can do past their breakout threshold.
The Leafs generally get a lot of press, so when someone breaks out or has a rebound season, a lot of media attention and digital ink has already been spilled on the subject. However, I don't believe that to be the case here with John Tavares. He has put together an incredible fantasy season, sitting at a point-per-game thus far, with his highest shot rate since his debut year in Toronto, and his highest PPP and Hit totals of his career. This has all been accomplished without inflated percentages, and in spite of his lowest career ice time to date.
One last name that I wanted to highlight was Filip Gustavsson. Goalies are always tough to project, so I only added one name in here. As a 24-year-old goalie barely past rookie status, and putting up numbers worthy of a couple of votes on Vezina ballots, he's someone that may have single-handedly been the difference in a few league wins. He has wrestled a platoon role away from what was expected to be a heavy workload carried by Marc-Andre Fleury, and should be the starter come playoff time. He's putting up a 1uality start in 70% of his games, and has saved over 93% of the shots against him. Fleury is still signed through next season, but my money would be on Gustavsson at this point to get more starts of the two, next season.
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There were a few players that are known high-scoring players who I'm going to mention here, and at one point last summer I owned all three in my main cap league. I traded Patrick Kane before the season
Jonathan Huberdeau and Johnny Gaudreau were the other two that I owned in that same cap league. Both were coming off 115 point seasons, and despite Huberdeau swapping into Gaudreau's spot in Calgary, and Gaudreau moving into Columbus, there was still a lot of optimism for their production. Unfortunately, neither meshed well in their new spots, and both put up very disappointing numbers across the board. Of the two though, I am a lot more bullish on Gaudreau's bounce back next year, especially if the team adds one of Adam Fantilli or Connor Bedard in the draft that he could play alongside next year.
Moving with Huberdeau to Calgary, Mackenzie Weegar also saw his numbers slump with the Flames, but he picked things up in the second half. He's a point-per-game player in the last 10 games, and approaching his breakout threshold as well. He may not hit the 55-point threshold he did in his best year with Florida, but consistently hitting 45 should be in the cards moving forward.
Sticking with the Florida and Calgary connection, Aaron Ekblad also really seemed to miss Weegar's presence in Florida, having to pick up a lot of the defensive slack. He saw a much higher quality of competition, and more defensive zone starts, and his offence suffered. Interestingly enough, he has finished the season well, and his shot rate is higher than it has been since his sophomore year. He should be back up to his usual 50-point pace next season, hopefully with a healthier forward group in front of him. Both Brandon Montour and Gustav Forsling did a great job of picking up the offensive slack this year.
Lastly, the most disappointing goalie this year was Jacob Markstrom, to go along with most of the Calgary Flames. He put up by far his worst season since he became a starting goalie. His second half has been even worse than his first half too, so we can't even really blame the adjustment to some new players. This is why I find it so difficult to invest in goalies. All of a sudden Markstrom looks like a turnip, and there aren't even any underlying numbers to hold onto some confidence with.
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Next week, with the season all but in the rearview mirror, I'll look into a few players that I think could fill those surprise and disappointment lists this time next year.
Dawson Mercer and his hat-trick last night might be one of the first places I'm going to look to start penciling names onto my lists. He's not far off from his breakout threshold, is exceptionally versatile and plays for a team whose offence is seeing its peak window open. He still has room to grow with more ice time, a growing shot rate, and
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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.