Ramblings: A Look at Post-Trade-Deadline Production (Frost, Strome, Hayton, Blais, Palmieri) … (Apr. 17)

Dobber

2023-04-17

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The Trade Deadline was on March 3 and I often look at the stats from that point forward, just to get a feel for how the roster changes league-wide impacted production. Some youngsters (usually on contenders) see less opportunity. Some youngsters (usually on non-playoff teams), suddenly see a whole lot more. Here are some interesting things that jumped out at me…

Dylan Strome had 25 points in his last 19 games. Trading away forwards Marcus Johansson and Lars Eller really opened things up for Strome.

Rasmus Sandin had 15 points in his last 19 games. But only three in the last 10 games after John Carlson returned. On one hand, that clearly shows that Sandin can and will be a productive fantasy player. On the other hand, at least for next season, his numbers will rely heavily on Carlson's health. He'll be a 30-35-point player if Carlson plays 82 games next year. But he'll be a 55-point player if Carlson plays fewer than 40 games.

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Jared McCann had 24 points in his last 21 games. It looks to me as though in January or thereabouts, coach Dave Hakstol finally decided to treat McCann as the team's best offensive option. Once Andre Burakovsky got injured, McCann's ice time jumped from just over 15 minutes per game to well over 17:30 per game, with a PP time boost too. McCann is entering his prime and his second-half rate is quite sustainable, although maybe at 35 goals instead of 40.

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Tommy Novak finished with 21 points in 23 games after the deadline, with the Predators shipping off Mikael Granlund and Nino Niederreiter. Novak's ice time promptly jumped to 17:18 per game down the stretch. With Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen set to return in the fall, Novak's ice time could take a hit. But I think he has proven himself enough that those players will be fit back into the lineup around Novak, as opposed to instead of him.

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Casey Mittelstadt posted 21 points in 22 games after the Trade Deadline. The Sabres didn't do much at the deadline, moving out Rasmus Asplund and bringing in Jordan Greenway. The big difference for Mittelstadt was moving up to play with Alex Tuch and Jeff Skinner, thanks to the Tage Thompson injury. He wasn't nearly as productive without Victor Olofsson and Tyson Jost. He played with the latter two for 23.3% of his ES shifts and earned 18.6% of his ES points. But he played just 10.2% of his ES shifts with Skinner and Tuch, picking up a whopping 23.3% of his ES points. How things shake down next season will be interesting, as there is Dylan Cozens to consider as well. Cozens had 16 points in 22 games after the deadline. Prediction: Cozens and Mittelstadt take turns throughout 2023-24 with hot/cold streaks. In the end, Cozens will finish with more points because of his chemistry with JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn, who are themselves rising stars.

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Morgan Frost had 17 points in his last 20 games. The trade deadline had nothing to do with this, as the Flyers weren't very active. But his chemistry with Owen Tippett really grew over time. And so did the admiration of coach John Tortorella, who early on wasn't impressed with his work ethic. That's history now, and Frost saw his ice time increase steadily over each quarter, peaking at 18:07 ATOI in the final month. Frost appears poised to top 60 points next season, and more to come after that.

Ditto for Barrett Hayton, who similarly earned more ice time as the season went on, and he had 18 points in 21 games after the deadline. If Hayton continues to play with Clayton Keller, and I believe that will be the case, you can look for him to flirt with 70 points. Without Keller, this may be as low as 50.

Both Hayton and Frost were top prospects who many fantasy owners had soured on. But it's another lesson in patience. Both young players enter their BT season next year, and it certainly looks good that they will, indeed, breakout.

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Another Arizona player who had a solid stretch run after the deadline was Jack McBain (14 points in 21 games). Not the highest upside, and the team is grooming him to be a penalty killer. He had 304 Hits, which is awesome when combined with what is likely going to be something in that 45-point range. He could take that even further if he continues to see ice time alongside Matias Maccelli.

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Sammy Blais had 17 points in 21 games after the deadline, when he was traded to St. Louis. He immediately saw a five-minute boost in average ice time, and made a fine addition to a line with Brayden Schenn and Brandon Saad. Blais is, unfortunately, quite a Band-Aid Boy. And while maybe a healthy Blais staying on this line could be a 50-point player. Or even better. But the odds of that are slim and none. Still, given what he offers in other categories, he'll be well worth owning in most formats that (of course) have an IR.

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Kyle Palmieri had 15 in 18 games after the deadline. This was helped out tremendously by the acquisition of Pierre Engvall. Palmieri had been playing with Anders Lee and Brock Nelson, but didn't click nearly as well as he did after Engvall replaced Lee. I don't think any of us have a ton of confidence in Palmieri in future seasons, as he has established his production window with the Islanders. But I'm pretty bullish on him in terms of playoff pools – for those that like the Isles to take down Carolina, that is.

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Here's an interesting one – Erik Brannstrom had 10 points in 19 games after the deadline. The moves on defense that the team made was when they offloaded Nikita Zaitsev – and of course acquired Jakob Chychrun. Thomas Chabot also missed nine games during that span, and Chychrun missed the last 10, so the added ice time there certainly helped. But it's a positive finish to a miserable season – enough to show that he can be leaned on a lot more. Although he received sheltered deployment, his possession metrics were very solid. The coaching situation will have a real impact here. I rate Brannstrom a 'hold', but wouldn't risk a 'buy' unless you have assets to spare.

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The Stanley Cup Playoffs open tonight with four games. Enjoy the exciting hockey! Some food for thought…

  • 42% of the games this season were comeback wins
  • Jake McCabe leads all playoff players in most career games without a playoff appearance (504). Jack Eichel is next at 476.
  • Ryan Suter leads all playoff players in most career games played without a Stanley Cup win (1362). Brent Burns is next at 1333, Joe Pavelski (1250) and Zach Parise (1224) follow.
  • Ray Bourque holds the all-time record, playing 1612 games before winning the Cup.
  • New Jersey improved by +49 points this year. That's the second-most in NHL's 82-game schedule history. San Jose jumped 58 points in 1993-94.
  • Teams that take a 1-0 lead in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Playoffs round hold an all-time series record of 507-235 (.683), including an 8-7 (.533) mark in 2022.

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Our DFS subscription is now on sale for $49.99 for the playoffs. That's right: 50% off! Order it here!

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See you next Monday.

3 Comments

  1. Brian Boake 2023-04-17 at 06:30

    Umm the Sens made a slightly bigger move on D than offloading Zaitsev…

    Also they had to give him ice time as everyone was injured – chabot, chychrun, Hamonic – giving Brannstrom regular minutes. I mean when Brannstrom is playing a regular spot on the PK you know there’s issues 😜

    • Dobber 2023-04-17 at 10:47

      Ug. I couldn’t see the forest through the trees there. Thanks Brian

  2. Striker 2023-04-17 at 08:53

    Sandin was on a 30 point pace in Tor playing as a #6 Dman. Regardless of how many games Carlson plays in 23/24 Sandin is a 40 to 45 point player playing a top 4 role seeing 2nd unit PP time. Not all PP time is created equally even 2nd unit as Was runs a 1st unit-heavy deployment but regardless a step up is coming next season his real breakthrough as usual under the 80/20 rule is still quite a ways off. Opportunity is a key ingredient of success and it takes time for those opportunities to be made available for Dman usually a very long time.

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