Eastern Edge: Analyzing Surprise Performances in the East, Outlooks for Next Season including Auston Matthews, Tage Thompson, and more.

I'm going to take a look at some of the biggest surprise fantasy performances from this season and provide some outlook on what to expect next year. This will include positive and negative surprises. I'll refrain from bringing up players mentioned in last week's article, including Brady Tkachuk and Jack Hughes.

Tage Thompson (Season Rank: 12, ADP: 144.3)

The unexpected breakout has arrived and is here to stay. After posting 38 goals, 30 assists and 3.24 shots per game in 2021-2022, he put up 47 goals, 47 assists and close to 4 shots per game this past season. All signs point to this being the new norm for Thompson and not just a fluke. His shooting percentage didn't really increase and he improved in all of his underlying stats, like individual expected goals for (ixGF), individual scoring chances for (iSCF), and high-danger scoring chances for (HDSCF). As Buffalo's young core improves around him, Thompson could eclipse 50 goals and 100 points next year.

Auston Matthews (Season Rank: 19, ADP: 3.1)

Although Matthews had a great fantasy season, with 40 goals, 85 points, and 327 shots, he let fantasy owners down as he was drafted 3^rd overall on average in redraft leagues. Matthews battled some minor injuries all season; this seems to be the norm for him, as he has missed time from injury in every season except for his rookie season. His shot rate decreased to 4.4 shots per game from 4.8 shots per game in 2021-2022. That's still an amazing rate, but many who drafted him 3^rd overall were expecting him to lead the league in shots. It seemed as though, minor injuries were bothering him throughout the season, effecting his play. There are some signs that point to him returning to elite status next year though. His shooting percentage (12.23%) was the lowest of his career this season, while his underlying stats (ixGF,iSCF, and HDSCF) were very similar to last season's. It was just his finishing ability that was lacking this year, some attribute that to puck luck, but I would attribute it to an ailment for Matthews. If he can be fully healthy to start next season, I would expect him to return to his old self, with 60+ goal potential, but probably missing a few games here and there.

Brayden Point (Season Rank: 24, ADP: 106.5)

With Tampa Bay having a weaker supporting cast this year, Point flourished as the Lighting's go-to scorer, posting career highs in Goals (51), Points (95), and shots (235). Not much should change in Tampa Bay's team makeup next season and Point should have the same role, but he did have a shooting percentage of 21.7%, a career high. He's always been an efficient shooter, but the last time he had a shooting percentage above 20%, was the 2018-2019 season, where he posted 41 goals and 92 points. The three following seasons, his shooting percentage dropped back down to the 15-17% range, dropping his goals to under 30 each of those seasons. I would expect a similar drop in shooting percentage next year, but I wouldn't necessarily expect a drop in shots or assists. This should put him around 40 goals and 82 points for next year. Draft accordingly.

Brandon Montour (Season Rank: 35, ADP: 175)

No one foresaw this breakout from Montour. I remember a few calls for a Gustav Forsling breakout, but Montour was off of everyone's radar. Montour got PP1 time all season, replacing Aaron Ekblad as the number 1 fantasy defenseman in Florida. He was efficient in that PP1 spot, posting 33 points on the power play. He increased his shot rate tremendously with the extra ice time with three shots per game. All signs point to a similar season for Montour if he gets the same deployment. There is no reason he shouldn't be on the top power play again, but this is one situation to keep on eye on in next seasons training camp.

Victor Hedman (Season Rank: 140, ADP: 15.0)

As the second or third defenseman drafted, 9 goals and 49 points was a huge disappointment. After posting 20 goals and 85 points in the 2021-2022 season, there was no reason not to expect similar. This is why deployment for defenseman is so important in fantasy hockey. Hedman had 38 power play points in 2021-2022. His PP1 role was usurped by Mikhail Sergachev for most of the season and his power play points dropped to 14. It looks like he has lost his PP1 spot for good as Sergachev is currently in that role in the current playoff series against Toronto. If Hedman can't get that spot back next season, I wouldn't expect a return to the top 100.

Sam Reinhart (Season Rank: 68, ADP: 65)

By just looking at the season totals, it looks like Reinhart performed as expected, but if you drafted him this year, you know he was a huge disappointment before the end of the season. He was dropped in many leagues as he only put up 22 goals and 46 points in 66 games. This is an 82-game pace of 27 goals, 57 points, and near replacement levels. What happened after game 66 is what shot him in the rankings back to where he was drafted. He finished the season with 10 goals, 22 points, and 48 shots in his last 17 games, an 82-game pace of 48 goals, 106 points, lucky for those that picked him up for the fantasy playoffs, or for those that held strong. I wouldn't expect Reinhart to have such a long dry-spell next year, but we shouldn't expect him to put up his finishing pace for the entirety of next season. I would be very comfortable drafting Reinhart around the same ADP as last season.

Hope everyone is enjoying the playoffs! Thanks for reading. Feel free to follow me on Twitter @fantasycheddar