Ramblings: Panthers Pocket Two in TO, Pavelski Scores Again, Ullmark’s Fantasy MVP Season (May 5)

Ian Gooding

2023-05-05

On May the 4th (be with you), Game 2 of the second round was played in two of the four NHL playoff series.  

Panthers 3, Maple Leafs 2 (Panthers lead series 2-0)

The difference in this game turned out to be Florida scoring the game-tying and eventual game-winning goals within a minute of each other early in the second period. These are goals that the Leafs should want to have back, particularly on the game-winning goal from Gustav Forsling. Look at how an unforced error on the clearing attempt led to the goal.

The Leafs outshot the Panthers 36-29 and had more scoring chances, but the NHL playoffs don't always reward teams on those numbers. The Panthers are simply finding a way to win right now, having won five consecutive playoff games dating back to the Boston series. They aren't as strong a team on paper this season compared to last season, but offseason acquisition Matthew Tkachuk appears to be a game-changer that makes this team more difficult to play against in the playoffs.  

Sergei Bobrovsky, whose four seasons in Florida can be best described as inconsistent, has delivered during this win streak. Throw out the Game 6 pond hockey game against Boston (final score 7-5) and he's posted quality starts in four of those five games. In the two games in Toronto, Bob has stopped 68 of 72 shots he has faced for a .944 SV% in the series. The Panthers could have found a similar goalie for half the cap hit, but that doesn't seem to matter right now.

Anton Lundell scored the Panthers' first goal and assisted on the game-winning goal. That gives him two points in three of his last four games.

Tkachuk, by the way, also assisted on the Forsling goal. He has a six-game point streak during the playoffs with 12 points over that span. As of the time of writing, Tkachuk is just one point behind Leon Draisaitl for the playoff scoring lead.

If your playoff pool counts peripheral stats, you'll be interested to know that Sam Bennett was credited with 10 hits for the Panthers in Game 2, while Noel Acciari had 10 hits for the Leafs. Former Panther Acciari leads the playoffs with 59 hits, including 34 hits over his last four games.

Matthew Knies left Game 2 after taking a rough hit from Bennett. Knies entered this game with points in each of his last three playoff games.

Stars 4, Kraken 2 (series tied 1-1)

The other first-round giant killer wasn't quite as lucky, as the Kraken were outscored, outchanced, and outfaceoffed by a Stars team that could simply not afford to go down 0-2 heading to Seattle.

Joe Pavelski was at it again, following up a four-goal Game 1 with another goal in Game 2. He's already tied for the Stars team lead in playoff goals (5) in spite of playing just three playoff games. He's now at 69 career playoff goals, only behind Alex Ovechkin (72) and Sidney Crosby (71) among active players, so he has a chance to become the leader this season with a decent Stars playoff run. It's something that he's scored this many goals without winning a Stanley Cup, but at least he's entered the Hall of Fame discussion with some strong seasons in his 30s. The 38-year-old Pavelski is defying that aging curve model that is used here. No player his age or older had as many goals (28) or points (77) during the regular season.

Tyler Seguin has lowkey been effective in the playoffs. Seguin also has five goals and eight points, and he has benefitted from centering the top line with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson – a spot that Pavelski usually occupies. Pavelski has been centering Max Domi and Mason Marchment, giving the Stars three solid scoring lines (Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov, and Wyatt Johnston being the other).

I've watched more of this series than I have the Panthers/Leafs series, simply because it's more primetime on the west coast. Jason Robertson hasn't been quite as noticeable in this series as I thought he would be, which is to say I expected more when I picked him in my playoff pool. He's been without a point in both games in this series, and he's been struggling at 5-on-5 during the playoffs. Six of his eight playoff points have been on the power play.

Even though Philipp Grubauer has allowed four goals in each of the two games in this series, he's looked very effective and a major reason that the Kraken are where they are. Even though he has a negative GSAA (goals saved above average) in his two seasons in Seattle, he might be a decent depth goalie in next season's drafts.

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Linus Ullmark's transformation from mid- to late-round sleeper to fantasy MVP and potential Vezina Trophy winner has been amazing, and it was something I was able to benefit from this season. Ullmark had an ADP of 146 in Yahoo, so he fit the Zero G criteria of a stud goalie that you didn't have to spend high draft capital on. Although whether he is the actual fantasy MVP is certainly up for debate (Connor McDavid and Erik Karlsson, to name two, might want to have a word), but on two of my fantasy teams Ullmark was the clear MVP.

Give credit to the Dobber Fantasy Guide projections on this one, if you looked closely enough. Although the projections had Ullmark playing 40 games and posting just 20 wins, they also forecasted Ullmark for a 2.45 GAA – the same as Andrei Vasilevskiy and Ilya Sorokin and slightly better than Juuse Saros and Jake Oettinger. When I set up my Fantasy Hockey Geek projections for my league, Ullmark was ranked #71 among all players. That was good enough for me to draft him at 153 in one of my leagues. I was lucky enough to inherit him on another team I added to my portfolio last offseason, and I even sent out a trade offer for him in a third league.

The basis of those projections were likely some solid under-the-radar ratios. Ullmark's goals-against average had consistently ranged between 2.45 and 2.69 over his previous three seasons, while his save percentage had never wavered between .915 and .917 over that same range. He also had a positive GSAA (goals saved above average) for all of those seasons, a predictor that he had been an above-average goalie. What makes these numbers even more impressive was the fact that Ullmark was stopping pucks for the Buffalo Sabres at perhaps their lowest point for two of those three seasons.

The Bruins were picked to miss the playoffs by many, thanks to an offseason of injuries and the uncertain status of Patrice Bergeron. I figured if they could stay afloat in the playoff race while Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy were out of the lineup, they'd be in good shape for a playoff spot. Not only did they stay above the playoff bar, but they burst out of the gate.

Ullmark benefitted from that strong start, winning eight games before his first loss (November 5) and not losing his second game in regulation until January 12. He had started just about every game prior to his first loss, but by mid-November he was alternating starts with Swayman. Perhaps this timeshare limited what Ullmark's win total could be, yet he still finished tied with Alexandar Georgiev for the league lead with 40 wins in spite of playing 49 games. Think about it: that's an incredible win probability. Over 80% of the time Ullmark started, he picked up a W.

There might be some worry about Ullmark's playoff showing affecting his performance next season. Ullmark seemed to be dealing with some sort of injury, which seems surprising that he played all the way up to Game 6 in the series. Expect Ullmark to continue to split starts with Swayman again, since the plan worked out well during the regular season. If the Bruins fall back to earth a bit, the timeshare could affect Ullmark's win total. I'd still be willing to project strong ratios, since he had already been providing decent GAA/SV% prior to this season.

Maybe the Bruins could try the goalie rotation during the playoffs as well, assuming they make it there. In other words, maybe – just maybe – teams finally start to use a goalie rotation similar to how baseball teams use a pitching starting rotation, and not just for the regular season. It's already being used in the AHL, which is in their playoffs as well.

In future Ramblings, I'll discuss other Zero G success stories and failures.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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