Ramblings: Florida’s Run Continues, Vegas Wins Game 5, Connor Bedard’s Immediate Outlook (May 13)

Ian Gooding

2023-05-13

A no-goal call will be discussed in Toronto all summer, while Vegas's Game 5 win places the Oilers on the brink of elimination.

Panthers 3, Maple Leafs 2 OT (Panthers win series 4-1)

Nick Cousins scored the overtime winner at 15:32 to send the Florida Panthers to the Eastern Conference Final for the first time since 1996.

The no-goal in question was late in the second period, where Morgan Rielly appeared to tie the game, but the officials determined the play to be no goal after a long video review. The puck appeared to be under Sergei Bobrovsky's skate behind the goal line, but the referee had deemed the play dead before then. Huh.

Before we dive into what's going to be another long summer for the Leafs, let's first give credit to the Panthers. That starts with Sergei Bobrovsky, who brought his A game in stopping 50 of 52 shots in Game 5. Top Cop Bob has been earning his salary in these playoffs, particularly recently. He's now reeled off six consecutive quality starts while posting wins in seven of his past eight games. He was consistent as well in allowing two goals in each of the five games against Toronto.  

Aaron Ekblad started the playoffs without a point in his first six games. With a goal and an assist in Game 5, Ekblad now has five points in his last five games.

Carter Verhaeghe is following up his 42-goal season with a point-per-game pace during the playoffs. The onetime Leafs draft pick also scored a goal and added an assist in Game 5, giving him 12 points (5 G, 7 A) in 12 games.

In spite of the no goal, Rielly scored a goal earlier in the second period. William Nylander scored the Leafs' other goal, the game-tying goal with just under five minutes left in regulation.

The Panthers and Hurricanes will now face each other in an all-Southeast Division Eastern Conference Final. Who do you like? Our writers will make their picks for both conference finals once the Western Conference series have been decided.

Some tough questions lie ahead for the Leafs, who were unable to capitalize on the Presidents' Trophy-winning Bruins being upset in the first round. Namely whether they can win with the core four, or if some kind of major surgery is needed on this roster in order to get this team deeper into the playoffs. Maybe this means one or both of Sheldon Keefe or Kyle Dubas is gone. Or either Mitch Marner or Nylander is traded in the offseason. Or maybe Auston Matthews forces the change by not re-signing with the Leafs within the next 13 months (hello, Arizona?!) leaving a lineup that isn't so top-heavy cap-wise. Or maybe the Leafs give it another try with everyone for at least one more season, holding their heads high for at least making it past the first round.

If Leafs fans desire change, they will point to the lack of scoring from said core four in this series. Matthews did not score a goal in the series while chipping in two assists. Marner scored a goal while adding two assists. John Tavares recorded just one assist (in Game 5). Nylander scored goals in back-to-back games while adding an assist in Game 3. There were enough shots on goal from all, particularly in Game 5, but they couldn't get the job done in this series. For example, Matthews and Tavares combined for 50 shots in the series, but neither managed to light the lamp.  

In stopping 40 of 43 shots, Joseph Woll posted his second consecutive quality start. Could the Leafs find room for the him on the big club next season? Matt Murray has another season left on his contract, while Ilya Samsonov is an arbitration-eligible RFA. Do with that what you will. Woll posted a solid 2.37 GAA and .927 SV% in the AHL this season after some subpar numbers in the three seasons before that. The 24-year-old has just 13 career regular-season starts, but his NHL career 2.38 GAA and .911 SV% also show well. Also of note is that Woll will no longer be waivers-exempt next season.

Golden Knights 4, Oilers 3 (Golden Knights lead series 3-2)

The Connor McDavid vs. Jack Eichel storyline of the top two picks in the 2015 draft has been played up throughout this series, although in fairness it's difficult to compare anyone to McDavid. Yet Eichel has held up his end of the bargain with eight points in the five-game series. His three-point effort (1 G, 2 A) in Game 5 was his second three-point game of the series. Eichel has also taken 22 shots on goal in the series – an average of over four shots per game.  

Adin Hill stopped 31 of 34 shots in the win, earning his first quality start of the playoffs. It's hard to say where Hill fits in on the Vegas depth chart when everyone is healthy because the Golden Knights have so many goalies out of necessity! But if you're trying to forecast next season, Logan Thompson and Robin Lehner are the only Vegas goalies under contract for next season. Hill, Jonathan Quick, and Laurent Brossoit are all UFAs.  

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Jonathan Marchessault assisted on three goals, which were his first assists in this series. Marchessault has been a shoot-first player, having taken at least five shots in each of his last four games.

What did Edmonton in was allowing in three goals in the span of 1:29 in the second period, including two power-play goals within 29 seconds.

Jack Campbell replaced Stuart Skinner in Game 5 after the latter allowed four goals on 23 shots. Calder Trophy finalist Skinner now has three really bad starts in this series, having being yanked in two of those games. It might be getting to the point where Campbell starts Game 6. That might sound terrifying for Oilers fans, but that's the reality of the do-or-die situation.

In spite of the loss, McDavid was his usual self in Game 5. McDavid scored a pair of power-play goals while taking six shots. McDavid has now passed Leon Draisaitl (no points in Game 5) and Roope Hintz for the playoff scoring lead with 19 points in 11 games. After his goal-scoring run (13 goals in eight games), Draisaitl has been held without a goal in his past three games.

Each team was without one key defenseman in Game 5, as Alex Pietrangelo and Darnell Nurse each served their one-game suspensions. The Oilers almost lost Mattias Ekholm after he was smashed into the boards by Keegan Kolesar late in the second period. Kolesar received a five-minute major and a game misconduct.

I don't need to talk to you about Connor Bedard in keeper leagues, where his value is off the charts. If you have the first overall pick in the rookie draft in your keeper league, congratulations! This is an open and shut case as to who you should pick. Don't let the fact that he's being drafted by the scorched-earth Blackhawks affect your decision, whether you're worried about lack of production or simply dislike the Hawks for their handling of the Kyle Beach incident. A lot can change in five years. Draft lottery luck beneficiaries aside, every first overall pick starts with a bottom-of-the-barrel team.

Bedard's value in single-season leagues is much more difficult to project, and it'll depend on which path the Blackhawks take during the offseason. The Blackhawks could opt for the continued rebuild in the hopes of landing Chicago Steel (and soon to be Boston University) forward Macklin Celebrini in the 2024 draft by signing players like Max Domi and Andreas Athanasiou to inexpensive one-year contracts again while trying to flip them for draft picks and/or prospects at the deadline. If that's the case, Bedard could be as low as a 40-50-point player in 2023-24. That might seem underwhelming, but remember that Jack Hughes had 21 points in 61 games in his first NHL season. Bedard may be facing NHL-level opponents on an AHL-level side. He can't do it all by himself.

On the other hand, now that the Hawks have a game-changer in Bedard, they may try to fast-track the rebuild and lure bigger fish in the hopes of surrounding their new prize with talent to perhaps even make a playoff run. (I highly doubt they'll make the playoffs even if they do that, but they may think they can at least try. Remove the Seth Jones contract and they're basically an expansion team. We know how successful Vegas and Seattle have been in their first two seasons because they haven't been saddled with inefficient contracts, but I digress.) At any rate, expect a higher projection if the Hawks surround him with more NHL-ready players. Then he may venture near the point-per-game territory that Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid were able to reach in their rookie campaigns.

Also remember that the Blackhawks have a cap floor to reach, so they will be adding to what looks like a barren roster at the moment. According to Puckpedia, they have a projected cap hit of just over $42 million next season, while the cap floor will be at least $60 million next season. They may try to Arizona their way to the cap floor by acquiring as many picks and prospects as possible along with a dead-weight contract or two, but they still have to ice an NHL team somehow. One way or the other, they will be a team to watch on July 1.

By the way, I found an interesting thread in the Forum on a loaded offer for Bedard. Would that be enough for you to move him?  

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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