Ramblings: Kraken Force Game 7, Luke Hughes, Late-Round Goalies That Had Good Seasons (May 14)

Ian Gooding

2023-05-14

The surprise Seattle Kraken will play another Game 7 on the road – this one on Monday in Dallas.  

Kraken 6, Stars 3 (series tied 3-3)

Want to know how balanced the Seattle scoring is? Eeli Tolvanen and Jordan Eberle are the first players in Kraken history to record three points in a playoff game, and it took 13 playoff games for that to happen.

Tolvanen was the first, as he assisted on two first-period goals and then scored his own goal early in the second period. Eberle scored a first-period power-play goal (only Seattle's second power-play goal in the series), then followed up with a third-period assist and an empty-net goal. Eberle is really rolling with five goals in this series, although that doesn't lead all players in the series. More on that shortly.

Ty Kartye, who has yet to play an NHL regular-season game, also scored in Game 6. He now has points in four of his last five games. Kartye entered the lineup during the first round as an injury replacement for Jared McCann, and he has played well enough to stick even with McCann back in the lineup. I wrote more about Kartye in the Ramblings last weekend.  

Jake Oettinger was pulled for Scott Wedgewood early in the second period after allowing four goals on 18 shots. The Kraken had carried the play up to that point, but this was Oettinger's third really bad start in four games. He's been a highly effective playoff goalie up until this series, but he hasn't looked quite right to me for some reason. Oettinger was 13-0 after a regulation loss during the regular season, so he does have that prior to Game 7 at home. I don't think there's any doubt that he starts Game 7, especially after getting a breather in Game 6.   

Joe Pavelski scored yet again, giving him goals in three consecutive games and eight goals in this series alone. Not bad for a 7th-round pick in 2003 who is now 38 years old.

The usually dependable Esa Lindell was a minus-4 in Game 6 after finishing with a plus-3 in Game 5. His defensive partner Jani Hakanpaa was a minus-3 in Game 6 after also recording a plus-3 in Game 5.

Jason Robertson: 46 goals in the regular season. Just two goals in 12 playoff games and none in the second round. He has contributed five assists in his last three games, though.

Thomas Harley recorded another assist on Saturday, giving him six points in the six-game series. He had been held without a point in the first round and had just two points in six regular-season games, so it's fair to say that the 21-year-old defenseman is playing the best stretch of hockey of his brief NHL career. Harley, who scored 34 points in 66 AHL games this season, could be forcing his way onto the Stars full-time next season. That's not a guarantee, though (see next paragraph). Either way, he will probably need at least another season or two before he really hits his stride in fantasy leagues.

Harley's emergence has meant that Nils Lundkvist can't find his way onto the Stars lineup, although that's been an ongoing issue for Lundkvist. Yeah, remember Lundkvist, who appeared to be in a better spot in Dallas after being traded from the Rangers? He has yet to appear in a playoff game, and he only appeared in three of the Stars' last 18 regular-season games. Lundkvist is only 22 himself, so this is hardly "stick-a-fork-in-him" time.

I was curious to see whether the Kraken will be rolling out a similar lineup next season, and it looks like they will be. Their only notable UFAs-to-be this offseason are Ryan Donato, Carson Soucy, Martin Jones, and Joonas Donskoi (who has not played at all this season).

Even though their second-round series with the Hurricanes ended rather quickly, the Devils have a lot of reasons to be excited about next season. When Jack Hughes makes another run for 100 points next season (he fell just short with 99 points), he'll likely have his brother Luke Hughes on the team. Hughes entered the Devils' lineup for their final three playoff games, recording a pair of assists while taking four shots and logging 25 minutes in Game 5 (an overtime loss). That icetime total happened to be second on the Devils in that game, which included an important save late in the second period (Hughes is #43, just like his brother Quinn).

A friend of mine who is a Devils fan describes Luke as a player that is currently making rookie mistakes but has Erik Karlsson upside. What that means is that if you can afford to be patient, you'll reap the rewards. Damon Severson and Ryan Graves are both UFAs this offseason, so losing one or both could clear the way for both Hughes and Simon Nemec, last year's second overall pick. Rookie d-men usually need a bit more time to become acclimatized in the NHL game (for example, Owen Power led rookie d-men with 35 points). Yet one or both of Hughes or Nemec could be worth a late-round pick in single-season leagues next season.

One of my leagues recently handed out end-of-season awards, which is when I learned that my team with Linus Ullmark, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Akira Schmid had the highest team save percentage in the entire 20-team league. My secret? Start Ullmark whenever possible, pick and choose when to start Bobrovsky, and start Schmid when he's in the NHL and when Ullmark isn't playing.

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Last week I described Ullmark as my fantasy MVP, as he was the prime example of why waiting until later in your draft to pick a goalie is a sound strategy. He wasn't the only one, as I have a few more below. Interestingly enough, these three are all goalies that have made it to the second round.

Ilya Samsonov (Yahoo ADP 116)

We've seen in the playoffs how effective Samsonov can be, although the focus here will be on the regular season. Samsonov entered the season in a similar timeshare to Ullmark, finishing the season playing in just over half of the Leafs' games. It's worth noting that no goalie that played fewer games than Samsonov (42 GP) finished with more wins (27), which meant that he was good for a win nearly two-thirds of the time. As well, his 2.33 GAA and .919 SV% were both sixth among goalies that played in at least 20 games.

The plan was for the Leafs to ride either Samsonov or Matt Murray to success in the hopes that one of them would rebound. It was a matter of picking the right goalie here, so hopefully your gut told you it wouldn't be Murray. Don't be surprised if the Leafs try to lock up the arbitration-eligible Samsonov to a long-term deal after a solid rebound season.

Vitek Vanecek (Yahoo ADP 174)

Vanecek was expected to split time with Mackenzie Blackwood to start the season, but the latter was injured for multiple stretches during the season. That meant that Vanecek finished in the top 15 in games played (52) and in the top 10 in wins (33) for a Devils team that exceeded expectations. With the Devils vaulting into the playoffs, Vanecek benefitted from team performance with a solid 2.45 GAA and .911 SV% during the regular season.

Where the Devils goaltending situation goes from here isn't quite as easy to figure out. Schmid was highly effective (2.13 GAA, .922 SV%) during his callups to fill in for Blackwood, and he also took over in net during the Devils' playoff run after Vanecek struggled over the first two games of the playoffs. The Devils could decide to move on from Blackwood, an arbitration-eligible RFA.

Vanecek, who is signed for two more seasons, should be safe as one of the Devils' two goalies next season. How many starts he receives might depend on what happens during the offseason. When evaluating the Devils' offseason goalie situation, GM Tom Fitzgerald may point to Vanecek's playoff 4.64 GAA and .825 SV% and 4 RBS (really bad starts) in 7 GP in thinking that Vanecek isn't the sure fire #1, possibly even thinking about bringing in another goalie from outside of the organization.

Stuart Skinner (Yahoo ADP 171)

The Oilers weren't patient enough to let free agent signing Jack Campbell work through his struggles. In other words, they weren't going to waste away another season of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in their prime. That meant quickly turning to the relatively inexperienced Skinner, who entered this season with just 14 games of NHL experience. Skinner eventually took over the starting job, finishing with 29 wins, a 2.73 GAA, a .919 SV%, and a nomination as a Calder Trophy finalist.

Skinner's story is still being written, with the Oilers currently in the Western Conference semifinal. He has started every one of the Oilers' playoff games so far, although it remains to be seen whether he starts Game 6 after struggling for much of the Vegas series. Even though Campbell is in the first year of a 5×5 deal, the Oilers situation is proof that there is occasionally an exception to the rule that the goalie with the bigger contract receives the bulk of the starts. Most of the time, but not all of the time. Skinner has a three-year extension for $2.6 million that kicks in next year, so he should be locked in for some starts regardless.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency PIT Players
25.8 BRYAN RUST RICKARD RAKELL SIDNEY CROSBY
17.5 MATT NIETO BLAKE LIZOTTE NOEL ACCIARI
15.6 EVGENI MALKIN CODY GLASS MICHAEL BUNTING

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