Ramblings: Panthers Win Quadruple Overtime Opener, Disappointing Goalies (May 19)
Ian Gooding
2023-05-19
Only one game was officially on the schedule on Thursday, but if you stayed up late enough you got to watch the equivalent of over two games. Yes, it was the longest game of the season and the sixth-longest game in NHL history.
Panthers 3, Hurricanes 2, 4 OT (Panthers lead series 1-0)
If you weren't watching, you read that correctly. On top of that, this game was only 12.7 seconds away from going to a fifth overtime. Matthew Tkachuk finally sent everyone to bed with a long-awaited game-winning goal for Florida, who I now think has a decisive edge in this series for all the work that went into winning this one game (or to put it another way, because Carolina has nothing to show for all their efforts).
The game almost ended early in the first overtime when Ryan Lomberg appeared to score. This looked to me like goalie interference, but of course opinions are mixed. It seems that we never know what the call will be until we hear from the referee anyway.
When a game is this long, both goalies have to be in top form. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 63 of 65 shots for the win, giving him back-to-back 50-save playoff games. Maybe it's time the Panthers start paying him time and a half. That's his seventh straight quality start and sixth consecutive game that he has allowed exactly two goals. If the Panthers make it to the Stanley Cup Final, he could be on the short list for the Conn Smythe.
Frederik Andersen also earned his paycheck in stopping 57 of 60 shots. In his six previous playoff games, he had not faced more than 34 shots in a game. He was certainly responsible for extending this game with a lot of key saves in overtime.
Some insane icetime totals:
Brandon Montour: 57:27 – also 8 SOG
Gustav Forsling: 56:10
Brent Burns: 54:43 – also 8 SOG, 5 HITS, 9 BKS
Aaron Ekblad: 52:10
Jaccob Slavin: 51:41
Does it seem like the Panthers have been winning a lot of overtime games in the playoffs? That’s because they have. Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final was their fifth overtime win in these playoffs. They are the third team in playoff history to win their first five games that needed overtime. Clutch.
Teuvo Teravainen returned to the Hurricanes' lineup after missing the past nine playoff games following surgery to repair a broken hand. That's quite the recovery! He had seen action in just two playoff games prior to Thursday's game.
Jordan Martinook had a five-game point streak entering this game. Martinook is already 30, which to me personally seems hard to believe because it seems like yesterday that I saw him star for the WHL's Vancouver Giants. The point run might be slightly less of a surprise than you think if I tell you that he just posted a career-best 34 points and 0.41 PTS/GP last season. He's probably not someone that I'd pick as even a deep sleeper in next season's fantasy drafts, and he is probably benefitting at least indirectly from the Hurricanes' injuries. The fact that he can jump into a role and produce is a testament to the top-notch system of Rod Brind'Amour. It is worth mentioning that Martinook's icetime this season (15-16 minutes per game) is up from the 11-12 minutes per game that he had averaged with the Canes the past few seasons.
It will be interesting to see how these two teams regroup for Game 2 on Saturday, which fortunately for them is not an early game. If one of Bobrovsky or Andersen allows a bunch of goals early, expect them to be pulled quickly to give them some much-needed rest. Alex Lyon and/or Antti Raanta could factor into this series.
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Desperate times call for desperate measures.
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Last week I discussed a few goalies that were picked in the later rounds of single-season drafts that turned into hidden gems. These goalies serve as evidence that the Zero G system of drafting goalies (waiting until the later rounds) will actually help your team. Of course, it's not a perfect system, since at least some goalies drafted late or not at all will not perform well at all.
Conversely, several goalies drafted early (before pick 100 on average) did not meet those expectations. Drafting one of these goalies would have sunk your team's chances of winning a fantasy championship. Let's identify these goalies and determine whether there were any warning signs about these goalies before the season.
Jacob Markstrom (Yahoo ADP 30)
There was definite risk in picking Markstrom in the third round of a 12-team draft, especially if you consider that stronger contributors such as Brady Tkachuk and Mika Zibanejad were being picked at around that spot. Heck, if you wanted a goalie, you could have even drafted Ilya Sorokin. Regardless, Markstrom was viewed as a workhorse goalie that could generate a bunch of wins for a Calgary team looking to defend its Pacific Division title.
Things didn't go as planned for Markstrom and the Flames, though. He didn't reach 30 wins as expected. And of course, the Flames didn't make the playoffs, while coach Darryl Sutter was let go after the season. Markstrom's -17.97 GSAA was the worst of his career, and that's saying something since he played for the rebuilding Canucks for a few seasons. That GSAA (goals-saved above average) was one of the 10 worst in the league, which is the last thing you need if drafting a goalie high. Only one goalie (Ville Husso) had more really bad starts than Markstrom (14 RBS). At one point, Markstrom was losing starts to Dan Vladar based on performance, which didn't seem possible before the season.
Less might be more for Markstrom. For one, Vladar could continue to push Markstrom for starts. As well, Dustin Wolf (2.09 GAA, .932 SV%) appears to be NHL-ready, which could make Vladar expendable. If the Flames start training camp with three goalies, then the competition could be a good thing and it could help Markstrom rest more often. In addition, don't underestimate the effect of a coaching change, as Sutter had worn out his welcome in Cowtown. The Flames could easily be a team to rebound next season.
Thatcher Demko (Yahoo ADP 54)
Maybe we expected too much out of Demko before the season. After all, I'd seen him being picked as a Vezina Trophy candidate by a few experts. After a late-season surge under Bruce Boudreau, the Canucks appeared to be more serious about landing a playoff spot, with Demko a workhorse goalie that could push for 30+ wins.
That idea came crashing down when the Canucks got off to another awful start, often leaving Demko out to dry during the early part of the season. That was followed by a lower-body injury that was supposed to last just six weeks, but instead ate nearly three months of Demko's season. I usually avoid injured players when analyzing studs and duds, but the start was so rough (3-10-2, 3.93 GAA, .883 SV%) that it is worth mentioning here.
The good news is that when Demko returned, he finally delivered on some of that preseason value. Under the improved structure of new coach Rick Tocchet, Demko was much improved with an 11-4-2 record, a 2.52 GAA, and a .918 SV%. Those numbers were definitely worth rostering, although it might have been too late for fantasy teams that drafted Demko.
The Canucks haven't been able to put it together for a full season, which is why Demko shouldn't be among the top-tier goalies. If the Canucks improve enough to make the playoffs, Demko will likely be a second-tier goalie. As well, Tocchet will need to ensure Demko isn't overworked, which means the Canucks will need to ensure they have a reliable backup – something that won't be easy to do given their tight cap situation.
Jack Campbell (Yahoo ADP 73)
If you were drafting based on the "follow the money" theory, Campbell made some sense. He had just signed a 5×5 deal with the Oilers, who were hoping that they had finally solved their longstanding goaltending issues – a key reason that they had been unable to move into the NHL's elite.
It seemed like a good idea in theory, but it didn't turn out that way in reality. Campbell stumbled out of the gate with a 4.04 GAA and .875 SV% in his first 12 games, in spite of winning seven of them. You may have been getting the wins because the Oilers were able to outscore their defensive issues, but you were paying dearly in your ratios. There were periods of better play during the season, but in the end, Campbell finished with a -16.70 GSAA (goals saved above average), which was in the bottom 10 of the league. Moreover, he had lost his starting job to rookie Stuart Skinner.
Those who follow the Leafs knew that Campbell would go through stretches of inconsistency. In fact, his ratios by quarter in 2021-22 were as follows:
Quarter | GP | GAA | SV% |
1 | 18 | 1.64 | 0.946 |
2 | 10 | 3.06 | 0.908 |
3 | 10 | 3.80 | 0.875 |
4 | 11 | 2.97 | 0.902 |
Quite a rollercoaster ride, and a reason to be scared off from Campbell. Even if he had the potential to earn 30+ wins, drafting him at his ADP seemed risky. Even though he could reclaim the starter's job back from Skinner, Campbell is probably waiver-wire material in many leagues to start next season. Skinner's struggles in the Oilers' last series against Vegas could result in Campbell receiving an opportunity to reclaim the starting job at training camp, or at least form more of a timeshare.
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