Saturday’s Props: Take the Over After Marathon Game

Brad Hayward

2023-05-20

I'm writing this introduction Friday morning, since my Thursday – Saturday schedule means it's the same series, and wow!  Yes, I was awake through 2 am (Eastern) this morning, so the first coffee had limited effect.  My first thoughts are that both goalkeepers should be credited with a playoff shutout for their resumes, that being the 60 minutes of the first three overtime periods!   And then, with tired defensemen, well….

Gold Selection:  Florida Panthers @ Carolina Hurricanes Pick – Take the Over 5.5 goals (-120)

No, this isn't a knock against either Sergei Bobrovsky nor Frederik Andersen.  And playoff games are tighter defensively, right? But peppering the net with shots will eventually work, and by the second period, the floodgates open. My looking back through recent history? Both the 2020 Tampa Bay win over Columbus (five overtimes), and the series-clinching 2008 Dallas victory over San Jose (four), were followed by games where the "under" bet would've won. So much for logic in hockey playoffs. A line of just 5.5 goals scored is irresistible.  

Silver Selection: Brent Burns scores a goal (+340)

Arguably the most dangerous shot from the point in this series – and he had a team-leading eight that made it onto the goal, along with five hits and ten blocks in Game 1. He's been uncanny throughout his career in getting those blasts through, and Carolina's forwards seem better at blocking the keeper's vision than tipping the puck in. Burns is one of several ageless wonders in the league (think Joe Pavelski also) who badly want the ultimate reward of a Stanley Cup championship on their trophy shelf. I feel that a +340 line is too tempting to pass up.

Bronze Selection: Anthony Duclair scores a point (+105)

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Here's a player who had only nine points during this regular season (in 20 games, following ankle surgery), who has become a focal point in the Panthers' offense. His speed on the flank opens up Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe, both of whom scored – while it was still Thursday – with Duclair assisting. Finding him open in the off wing is a bonus, and Duclair had the least TOI of the Florida top-six, and far less than any of Carolina's top-four defensemen, who he'll be skating past. Personally, I'd add him to the Panthers' stale first power-play unit, but that's not likely. 

Nope, there's not a Kryptonite selection.  I'm very conflicted as to any pick for the winning squad tonight. Obviously this game should be total desperation for the Hurricanes, whose home playoff successes have been reviewed by others. But Florida doesn't quit, and Bobrovsky has been otherworldly of late. So wager carefully. 

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