We now interrupt our regularly scheduled playoff coverage (while we wait for the Final to be decided) to start on one of our traditional offseason series. This week, and for several upcoming weeks, we will be taking a look back over full season data to find out which players provided the most, and best, value at each position.

'Most Valuable' is a tricky term that is going to be completely dependent on the league specific context. For the purposes of this article, we are going to use standard Yahoo point scoring to calculate the total fantasy points for each player. This year the stats include goals, assists, power-play points, shots, blocks and (unfortunately) plus/minus. Obviously, this means there might be some general deviations to your league, based on your settings, but it is at least a good starting point. In order to grab all of this data I am exporting the Multicat and Big Board Reports for the full season, and doing a bit of rearranging so I can have only the pertinent fields.

In addition to total fantasy points, I have also pulled Yahoo average draft position data (ADP). These ADPs are based on preseason drafts, so they don't consider leagues and drafts that started part way through the season. The idea here is that if we compare the draft position to the end of year fantasy points for all players, we can get an equation that lets us say, 'on average a player with X draft position would be expected to get Y fantasy points'. Once we have that we can compare that expected number to the player's actual number and see who performed the best based on their draft position. 

We will get to that calculation in just a minute, but to start let's see who the top five performers this year at center were.

No surprises here. The top four drafted players happened to be centers and ended up being the top four fantasy point producers at center. Jack Hughes is the one exception here, his draft position being significantly lower down at 83.4. Interestingly, after the top four there is a gap in APD with Aleksander Barkov being the 5th highest drafted center at 14.1.

We won't do a ton of analysis here as there isn't a ton more to say about these players, but Auston Matthews is somewhat interesting as he has by far the lowest point totals not only of this group, but in his personal history as well. It was definitely a down year, but the main culprits seem to be a lower than average personal shooting percentage, and a lower than average points participation number (both at even strength and on the power-play). His deployment remained pretty consistent, as did his shot rates, and his expected goal numbers. Hughes on the other hand has certainly arrived. His career high points numbers are supported by career high on ice numbers, shot rates, and expected goals. His other underlying numbers (shooting percentages, point participation numbers) aren't looking incredibly out of line either which definitely implies Hughes could be in line for another 100-point season next year as well.

While the above players were certainly the most valuable centers overall, a lot of 'value' actually comes from the cost it took to acquire the player compared to their performance. This is where our expected fantasy points come into play.

Which centers provided the most value if we take into account their draft position?

Top of the list? Connor McDavid. His season was just unreal. He was the top drafted player and somehow still managed to be the best value even given his draft position (and by a lot). Jack Hughes makes an appearance here too, though that really isn't a surprise given what we saw above as the fifth ranked center overall but drafted at 83rd.

I did want to spend a few minutes on Nico Hischier though. Hischier's career high 81-point pace tops a three-year trend of point production increases. His overall time on ice numbers didn't increase a ton, but his shot rates and expected goal rates did. Basically, he was just a much more dangerous player this year. Nothing about his numbers indicate that this is a flash in the pan either. If anything could have lucked into a few more points than he put up. That puts me in the very optimistic camp for Hischier next season.

And because we can't look at most valuable without thinking about the flip side – now on to the disappointments.

A big chunk of this list contains players whose season totals were impacted by injury. I was among those unlucky enough to draft Josh Norris so definitely feel the impact of this. Evgeny Kuznetsov is a dramatic example here though. He played 81 games, so essentially a full season, and was drafted 65th overall. That means on average he went 20 picks before Jack Hughes. He was coming off of an 81-point season so there was some warranted interest, but his 56-point pace was his lowest point space since 2014-15. It isn't hard to find culprits either. Yes, his personal shooting percentage was low so maybe he deserved five or six more goals, but he lost two minutes of total ice time on average, 15 percent of the power-play, half a shot per game, and for most of the season Alex Ovechkin as his default linemate. If all of that maintains he is much closer to a 60-point player than an 80-point player.

And finally, we have those centers who were generally undrafted, but who provided good value through the season (and just in case you were keeping track, yes you would have been better off grabbing one of these guys out of free agency than drafting Kuznetsov).

In his third season Dylan Cozens hit career highs across the board. Goals, assists, points, shots, power-play points all were accompanied by career highs in shot rates, time on ice, power-play deployment, and expected goals. There are still some question marks given this is the first time we have seen this kind of production (about a 70-point pace), but generally speaking there is a lot to like here, particularly if he can maintain that top power-play deployment with a suddenly potent cast of characters.

There isn't a lot to note here, but it is great to see Mikael Backlund on the list. He is almost always that fringe free agent. Shows up at the next best option, but everyone passes on him because he is a little bit boring and a center. He certainly had some very productive streaks this season and likely made a lot of managers regret not adding him when they had the chance.

That is all for this week

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