Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

This week, we will examine two young players whose playoff performances have their fantasy stocks headed in different directions: one up, one down (or at least sideways). Postseason production should be taken with a grain of salt because the overall intensity is ramped up so much higher than during the regular season, but it also telling how players perform on the biggest stage when everything is on the line.

Seth Jarvis (CAR)

Although the Canes were swept by the Panthers (or were they?), Seth Jarvis, 21, showed a glimpse of what we can expect from him in 2023-24. He is a fiery competitor who looked fast and dangerous throughout Carolina's run to the Conference Final, stapled as always to Sebastian Aho on the Canes' top line.

Season

39-point pace, 0.06 PPP, 2.28 shots, 0.89 hits

Playoffs

55-point pace, 0.2 PPP, 2.47 shots, 2.8 hits

Jarvis now sits at 179 NHL games in his career and is on track to hit his Breakout Threshold in the first quarter of 2023-24. On top of the15-point increase in his scoring output, the big jump in hits is notable and would increase his stocks a fair bit in multi cat formats. Plus he is slowly creeping closer to the gold standard of three shots per game. There is a chance the extra intensity of playoff hockey helped coax out this bump in peripherals, but it is a positive sign nonetheless.

One area that drove some of Jarvis' increased production was his boosted exposure with the man advantage. He went from seeing 40% of the available time during the season to 66% in the playoffs. At the same time, he became more involved in his team's scoring with the man advantage (35.7% —> 42.9% PP IPP). There is still room for improvement there, and the return of Andrei Svechnikov (who will resume skating in July) could muddy the waters, but Jarvis' ability to work in small spaces and fight off pressure is well-suited to the power play. He has high-end hockey sense that allows him to move into open space and unleash his absolute bomb of a shot once his teammates find him with the puck:

SETH JARVIS GIVES THE CANES THE LEAD WITH A POWER-PLAY GOAL!!!!pic.twitter.com/0a3kxHnJie

— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) May 19, 2023

A testament to Jarvis' impact: in the four games that Carolina lost to Florida, his CF% was 64.8, 66.7, 48.5, and 66. No wonder Coach Brind'Amour seemed befuddled in that post-game interview. Those are excellent play-driving numbers. Had a few more bounces gone one way instead of the other, this series could have easily had a different outcome, and Jarvis was a big part of that.

Removing those final three games when the Canes were absolutely snakebitten, Jarvis would have ended up with 10 points in 12 games, a 68-point pace over 82 games. It is a small sample size but everything looks sustainable: he is young, in lockstep with Carolina's best player (Aho), about to pass his BT, and producing both points and peripherals.

As a final aside, while I am very high on LA's Quinton Byfield, I started putting together an offer for him around Jarvis in a keeper I'm in but ended up cancelling the trade. I realized that I am not convinced Byfield has a higher ceiling than Jarvis at this point. Add a 25% increase to that 68-point playoff pace and he is over a point per game. These are small sample sizes but I would not be surprised to see Jarvis hit 70+ in 2023-24 with something like 2.8 shots and 1.5 hits per game. That is a very valuable profile.

Anton Lundell (FLA)

One player I have been a bit disappointed in this year is Anton Lundell, also 21. His team just made the finals, but he has not played nearly as central and critical a role as Jarvis did for Carolina.

Season

37-point pace, 0.07 PPP, 2.1 shots, 0.4 hits, 3.68 face-off wins

Playoffs

36-point pace, 0.13 PPP, 1.88 shots, 1.25 hits, 5.19 face-off wins

His power play production, hits, and face-off wins have all increased slightly, but there has not been a tangible step forward in any area. In fact, all of his seven points this postseason have come from four games, two against Boston (four assists) and two against Toronto (one goal, two assists). He did not score at all against Carolina and is currently riding a six-game scoreless streak.

Anton Lundell cuts the lead in half pic.twitter.com/rvXePpQmHw

— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) May 4, 2023

Like Jarvis, Lundell sits at 163 career NHL games and is on track to hit his BT in the first third of 2023-24. A 25% increase on his career scoring average to date would put him at just under 60 points—close to what he scored as a rookie last year when the entire Panthers squad scored the lights out. Although last year I argued against him maxing out at Jordan Staal levels of production (ie. 60 points), I have to admit I'm getting worried. I have parted ways with him in the couple leagues where I owned him, and while I have looked at him a few times lately as a potential buy-low option, there is not a lot here to inspire confidence.

Part of what has fueled the Panthers' success is their ability to roll out three solid forward lines, but that has left Lundell on the outside of the top six looking in. Here are their lines from the last game against Carolina:

Duclair – Barkov – Verhaeghe

Cousins – Bennett – Tkachuk

Lundell – Reinhart – Lomberg

No Panthers line consistently drove play well against Carolina—go figure—but that Lundell – Reinhart – Lomberg unit sported a 58.5% CorsiFor rating during the regular season, which suggests they have become a useful shutdown weapon for Florida's coaching staff. Further, although Lundell saw a slight 5% increase in offensive zone starts, him being so closely linked to Reinhart is concerning for his fantasy stocks given that Reinhart was used so heavily as a defensive option in 2022-23:

What to expect from Lundell moving forward? I am honestly a bit baffled. Hockey Prospecting still gives him a 58% chance of becoming a star, which is very high, relatively speaking—Jarvis has a 9% chance in the model, for reference. That speaks to the strength of his career trajectory to date. But there are only five comparables in the model for him: two busts, two replacement producers (Sam Steel, Matt Nieto), and an average producer (Colin Wilson). Any of those outcomes would be considered disappointing for a player of Lundell's calibre.

Hold him if you own him, or buy low cautiously if you do not. His name value is probably not enough anymore to get a fair return given his disappointing stats of late. He should improve in 2023-24 at least back to his rookie totals (56 points) and his play-driving continues to be an asset. With patience, there may still be a useful fantasy asset here. But watch his usage carefully because the red flags are beginning to add up.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.