Top 10 Intriguing RFAs this Summer
Tom Collins
2023-06-05
Each year, the opening of NHL free agency is a crazy day of signings that everyone looks forward to and gets all the media attention. But for my money, it’s the restricted free agents that are the most exciting and nerve-wracking to watch for in a cap league.
I’m in a dynasty league that has a $100-million cap hit. On my team of soon-to-be 30 keepers, I will have nine players that are free agents. Sure, I’m paying attention to Tyler Bertuzzi and Frederik Andersen, but the cap hits given to players like Bowen Byram, Trevor Zegras and a couple of the names on this list are what can destroy my team and force me to trade some players. It’s not uncommon for young defensemen to get eight-year deals at $8-million plus before proving they are elite.
Potential franchise forwards can also command top dollar. Nick Suzuki, for instance, signed an eight-year deal paying him just under $8 million per season before he had a 20-goal season and his career high was 41 points in 56 games, a 60-point pace.
Of course, it’s also not uncommon for a player to sign a cheap contract to help the team (remember Kevin Labanc‘s $1-million deal in 2019-20 after a 56-point season shocking the hockey world), but those should be hoped for, not expected.
Below are the top 10 interesting restricted free agents this summer. Before I get on to the list, for anyone in a cap league, check out Alex MacLean’s salary projections for the top 100 free agents.
10. K’Andre Miller
The thing that makes Miller’s case so interesting isn’t about how much he produces in a limited role, but the fact the Rangers already have two high-salaried defensemen. Adam Fox is making $9.5 million per season, while Jacob Trouba pulls in $8 million per. Despite getting little power-play time, Miller finished with 43 points and contributes with hits and blocked shots. In a normal year, he might command $6 million. However, the Rangers have $11.8 million in cap space and also need to re-sign Alexis Lafreniere, potentially Patrick Kane, a backup netminder and a few other players.
Gustavsson went into this past season as the 1B option at best but finished the season as the number one netminder for the Wild. Even though Marc-Andre Fleury has another year left on his contract, this should be Gustavsson’s job to lose. However, never underestimate the preference of many NHL coaches to go with their veteran netminder, even when the veteran is in a decline. The 24-year-old Gustavsson was much better than Fleury in both the regular and postseason. The Wild have $9 million in cap space, but also need to re-sign Calen Addison and another four spots.
8. Vince Dunn
It was a crazy breakout season for Dunn, something fantasy general managers have been waiting for for several years. He finished in the top 10 among defensemen for goals, assists and points, and top 15 in plus/minus. His previous high was 35 points, so he picked a good year to have a breakout season. He also averages a hit and a blocked shot per game, although he does average less than two shots per game. It would also be nice if he had more than 15 power-play points. He only made $4 million in each of the last two seasons, so expect a significant pay jump this year.
There are so many things at play with Dubois’ contract that makes him one of the most interesting RFAs. The soon-to-be 25-year-old just had the best season of his career, but still finished with a 71-point pace. He’s a rough player who picks up a lot of PIM, but his lackadaisical attitude on the ice at times has riled fans in both Columbus and Winnipeg. The Jets may be going for a rebuild and Dubois could be a huge part of it, but rumors have been abounding for a year that Dubois is willing to wait and sign with the Montreal Canadiens next summer. Remember, many of us thought Jonathan Huberdeau was going to wait until free agency this year after he was dealt away from Florida, but he wound up signing a long-term deal with Calgary pretty quickly. Whether it’s signing a long-term deal, being dealt or signing a one-year contract, nothing that happens with Dubois should shock anyone.
6. Jesper Bratt
A few months ago, it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see Bratt sign a long-term, big-money deal. Now, the addition of Timo Meier may put a wrench into those plans. With Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Dougie Hamilton all making a minimum of $7.25 million, will there be an appetite to add two more names to that mix? They at least have the cap space ($34 million currently) if they want to go in that direction. Bratt has back-to-back 73-point seasons, and his numbers everywhere else have increased each year. Bratt’s qualifying offer is $5.45 million, but he should be able to reach the $7-million mark.
You could almost convince me anything might happen with the Leafs, their goaltending and Samsonov this year, and I would believe it. You could persuade me that after a great regular season where he went 27-10-5 with four shutouts, he will go into next season as the number one guy. You could convince me that after Samsonov struggled in the playoffs once again, the team still believes in Matt Murray and therefore Samsonov will be a backup next year. You could also sway me that after a decent regular season and postseason, the Leafs will look to save money in the goaltending position and will roll with Joseph Woll next year.
4. Timo Meier
Meier is an interesting case simply because of the way his last deal was structured: He made $10 million this past season as a base salary, which means any qualifying offer has to be at least that. He’s also a year away from becoming an unrestricted free agent. Speculation in March was that the Devils were ready to offer him $9 million per season for eight years, but considering his poor performance with the Devils and the playoffs, will his contract come in at a little less? This is a player coming off his first 40-goal season, but he’s never been a point-per-game player (76 points in 77 games is the only one that comes close).
UPDATE: Caufield signed a contract right around the moment this was published. He signed for a whopping eight years at a reasonable $7.85M
Seven teams haven’t had a 50-goal scorer since the Habs Montreal’s Stephane Richer potted 51 in 1989-90, the last Hab to score 50 goals in a campaign. Two of those teams are the Kraken and Golden Knights (the others are the Hurricanes, Devils, Wild, Predators and Blue Jackets). In fact, the Habs have only had two 40-goal scorers since Richer’s 50 (Brian Bellows in 1992-92 and Vincent Damphousse the following year). Caufield was on pace for 46 goals this past season before a shoulder injury limited him to 56 games. Caufield is the Habs’ best chance to finally reach that 40-, and potentially 50-goal season. So, will he be paid as a great goal scorer? There are rumors that he won’t be getting more than Nick Suzuki, who is making $7.875 million, but there are also talks that Caufield could be given an offer sheet, thereby putting his salary potentially higher.
One of the biggest offseason acquisitions last year for the Sens is coming off a 27-goal season, which is considered to be a down year for him. That goes to show how great a goal-scorer he is. Since joining the league in 2017-18, only 13 players have scored more than Debrincat’s 187 goals. The lowest salaried player among those for next season is Kyle Connor at $7.143. Debrincat can be qualified at $9 million per year, but I’ve seen some talk from Sens fans who believe the better option is to trade Debrincat to either upgrade in net or to save on cap space for other players. Regardless, Debrincat is due a hefty raise over the $6.4 million he made this season.
He’s not going to reach $10 million a year, but considering how awesome he’s been for the Oilers since Tyson Barrie was traded away, you have to figure the $9-$9.5 million mark has to be in play. Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy were around the same age when they signed their massive deals. Mikhail Sergachev and Miro Heiskanen had not yet taken over their team’s top power-play unit when they signed their contracts (both in the $8-$9 million range). Teams seem more likely to sign their young stud defensemen long-term and to big-money contracts. The problem is, according to CapFriendly, the Oilers only have less than $6 million in cap space with about five positions to fill.