We got something we don't usually get during the Stanley Cup playoffs, and that was a sizable trade. One of the storylines out West this offseason was what the Los Angeles Kings would do because they had Gabriel Vilardi as a pending RFA (among others), Vladislav Gavrikov and Joonas Korpisalo as free agents, and not much cap space to work with. They solved their problem in a three-way deal that had a lot of components:  

Let's dig into it. Data from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.

What The Flyers Get

Getting a first-round pick and two second-round picks is nice for a team that wants to turn to the future. Helge Grans (profile here) is a highly touted defence prospect, depending on who you talk to. Our own Prospects Report highlights his defensive ability while highlighting his offensive finish, and that he was expected to push for a roster spot in September. But they noted he fell behind Jordan Spence on the prospect depth chart, and Spence even got to the NHL over the last two years. He goes to a team that has four roster defencemen already signed for 2023-24, not including Cam York, and that also doesn't include their own prospects like Ronnie Attard or Egor Zamula. Grans goes from a playoff team where he would fight for a roster spot to a non-playoff team where he'll be fighting for a roster spot and coached by John Tortorella. Seems fairly lateral for him.

Cal Petersen had a brutal year in Los Angeles and his contract became an albatross. There are rumblings Carter Hart may be moved eventually, so Petersen may have fantasy value, but if Hart stays, he does not.

Sean Walker is a serviceable number-4 defenceman who should probably play on the third pair. He rarely has fantasy value, so this doesn't change much for him.

What The Blue Jackets Get

It has been a very uneven fantasy career for Ivan Provorov. He posted 71 points in his first 164 games (0.43 points/game) but has posted just 146 in his last 368 career games (0.40 points/game). He was more productive per game, playing 90 seconds less per game, as a 20- and 21-year-old than he was in his age-22 through age-26 seasons. Yes, quite uneven, indeed.

The big problem for Provorov was helping his team generate offence at 5-on-5. Despite Evolving Hockey showing him with a couple of good seasons driving expected goals for the team – 2021-22 and 2019-20, notably – the team scored less often with Provorov on the ice (2.42 goals per 60 minutes) than without him (2.47 per 60 minutes) from 2018-2023. When we factor that this team is in the bottom half of the league in 5-on-5 scoring over those five years, the fact he didn't help them outscore that should be a bit concerning.

It is important to note that he did not help the Flyers really drive goals for years because that is the problem Columbus has. The Blue Jackets can assemble a decent top scoring line, but this past season showed just how far they have to go to fill out the rest of the roster. If there are small improvements to the forward depth thanks to progression from guys like Kent Johnson and Kirill Marchenko, but Provorov gets a limited power play role because of Zach Werenski, how much better off is he in Columbus than he was in Philadelphia, fantasy-wise?

That gets to the depth problem. Not a problem for the team, but for Provorov: Columbus has five defencemen signed for at least three more seasons, including Denton Mateychuk and David Jiriceck. They have Adam Boqvist for two more seasons (at least) and Nick Blankenburg for one. With the caveat that more moves could come, this blue line is getting full, and that doesn't bode well for almost anyone's fantasy value. This really hurts their prospects more than anything. With Werenski and Provorov around, no one else is getting true top-pair minutes for a few seasons unless there's injury or a Cale Makar-like breakout. Provorov is an upgrade over the bottom of the blue line, and that helps the team, but it's hard to see how this is a boost of any meaningful size to the existing Jackets skaters, or to Provorov himself. Maybe he can flourish once again in a lesser role, if that's the route the coaching staff takes.

What The Kings Get

Kevin Connauton heading to Los Angeles is just a body for depth. Ditto for Hayden Hodgson. The big win for Los Angeles here is clearing the Petersen contract, which had two years at $5M a season left. They also shed Sean Walker's contract so even while retaining 30% of Provorov's deal, they cleared roughly $6M in cap space for 2023-24 and about $3M for the year after. It gives them flexibility to extend Gavrikov and sign Vilardi, though how much Gavrikov signs for could be worrisome. This doesn't really change much for their roster as it is, but trading Grans and Walker clears room for Brandt Clarke not only to make the team, but get meaningful minutes.

Who This Helps

Brandt Clarke

Cam York

Jordan Spence

Rasmus Ristolainen

Cal Petersen

Who This Hurts

Denton Mateychuk

Tim Berni

Felix Sandstrom