Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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We are just a couple of weeks from the NHL Draft and that means it’s a great time to purchase your copy of the 2023 Dobber Hockey Prospects Report! Get updates and forecasts on several prospects from every NHL franchise, as well as an in-depth look-ahead to this year’s class. Support what we do here (and over on Dobber Prospects) and get all the fantasy hockey prospect information necessary in one fell swoop.

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1. Just when you thought the Blue Jackets couldn’t add any more defensemen, they surprised everyone by acquiring Damon Severson in a sign and trade from Columbus for a third-round pick. And he’s getting paid – eight years at $6.25 million per season. I don’t think this trade affects Severson as much as some of the other defensemen on the Columbus roster, as I’ll explain.

In a way, it’s a smart move for the Blue Jackets. Most teams seem to be in the market for a true top-4 defenseman, and things get more challenging when one on the roster is injured. However, are the Blue Jackets going to address their main weakness, which is a lack of forward depth? When the discussion around who centers Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine includes below-1C options Boone Jenner and Jack Roslovic along with not-yet-there Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger and maybe even who they draft at third overall, there is a specific need. But the offseason runway is still long, and Jarmo Kekalainen might still have more up his sleeve. In other words, don’t consider this a fully constructed roster yet. (jun10)

2. From Dobber's depth chart below, David Jiricek could still make the Blue Jackets this season, but if so, he will probably be playing limited and sheltered minutes and seems unlikely to have meaningful fantasy value right away. Denton Mateychuk will probably have to wait at least one more year and maybe more, which might be better for his development in the long run anyway.

Dobber: This is lining up to be the most mobile group of D in the league.

This yr:
Werenski/Severson
Provorov/Boqvist
Bean/Jiricek

2024-25:
Add in Mateychuk/Ceulemans (jun10) 

For more, including a detailed breakdown of Severson’s abilities, check out Cliffy’s Fantasy Take. Mike also shared his thoughts on the three-team Ivan Provorov-Cal Petersen deal.

3. I was invited onto the Fantasy NHL Today podcast at Sports Ethos earlier this week, where I discussed pending free agents and other fantasy topics with Blake Creamer. Give it a listen, will ya? Blake likes to have fun and is very enthusiastic about the fantasy game. We discuss the Ivan Provorov trade before the Damon Severson trade happened, thinking at that point that the Jackets already had too many d-men. (jun10)

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4gB5YwLvnyJAEcCH0iUZ7Q?si=29ff7dde589a4be0&nd=1

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-nhl-today/id1646322897

4. Sebastian Aho maintained a similar goal total this season compared to last season, reaching the 35-goal mark for the second consecutive season. However, his assist total slipped from 44 to 31, which meant he fell below the point-per-game mark for his lowest point pace in six seasons (0.89 PTS/GP).

You can look directly at his secondary assist total for the reduction, as he recorded just seven secondary assists all season compared to 24 primary assists. Compare that to 2021-22, when he recorded 16 secondary assists and 28 primary assists. A 22.6% secondary assist rate is lower than the 35-45% secondary assist rate he has had for much of his career.

Although the Canes regularly juggle their lines, the loss of Andrei Svechnikov seemed to impact Aho in the assists department. Over his last 22 games Aho recorded just three assists, with most of those games happening without Svechnikov out of the lineup. That downturn shouldn’t all be the result of one player, as Aho had just eight assists over his last 38 games. Certainly there’s some room for improvement there, which I would bet on happening next season. (jun10)

5. I try to avoid trade/signing speculation in these pages in general, but especially at this time of year. It’s when agents leak information (true or not) to try and improve their client’s image, so a lot of the stuff we see from the hockey insiders is just marketing.

The situation with Pierre-Luc Dubois is a bit different. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun said on Wednesday night that Dubois’s agent informed Winnipeg he won’t re-sign with the team, not even a one-year deal to walk him to unrestricted free agency. The team has the option to qualify him, of course, but it seems very clear the situation is heading towards a trade at some point this offseason.

6. It is tough to get a grasp on PLD’s fantasy value. Seems as if he’s a safe 25-goal, 60-point guy, but there is a concern as to how power-play reliant he is: nearly half of all his goals (55) came on the power play (26) over the last two years. It isn’t a huge problem so long as there’s good 5-on-5 scoring as well, but there’s not. Dubois has a lower 5-on-5 goal rate over the last two years than Zemgus Girgensons, Barclay Goodrow, Lars Eller, and Matt Nieto.

The crux of his scoring is his shooting percentage; Dubois shot 11.9% at 5-on-5 in Columbus but just 7.9% in Winnipeg. If he can get back around 11% consistently, that changes his outlook a lot. We’ll have to see where he lands and assess then, but this is an interesting trade name when considering his recent history and his age. (jun9)

7. My Ramblings earlier this week covered players who took large market shares of their team’s shots, and players who performed very well by some playmaking metrics when comparing to their team.

All that was at 5-on-5, though. As important as 5-on-5 play is, when it comes to the fantasy game, power play production makes-or-breaks value for a lot of players. All we have to do is look at players like Carter Verhaeghe, Nikolaj Ehlers, Filip Chytil, or Ryan Hartman, what they’ve done at 5-on-5, the lack of PP production, and the fantasy value left on the table because of it.

To that end, let’s review some power play data from this past season. For example: It kind of surprised me to see Dylan Cozens so high on the sample list regarding 5-on-4 data, given the talent of the forwards on the Buffalo power play. But when looking at the passing distribution, it all went through Rasmus Dahlin. He had 69 tracked passes at 5-on-4 in this sample, and no Buffalo forward had even 30. Dahlin had 17 scoring chance assists overall and Cozens (8) was the only Buffalo forward with more than four. That isn’t terribly uncommon – Roman Josi and Erik Karlsson do something similar – but it does highlight that maybe some of Buffalo forwards are more interchangeable on the power play than we thought. That is something to keep in mind on a team with Jack Quinn, JJ Peterka, Casey Mittelstadt, and some really good prospects on the way. (jun9)

[For more, follow the link…]

8. The Los Angeles Kings followed up their cap-space dumping by signing Vladislav Gavrikov to a two-year deal worth a little under $6M a season. The defenseman was traded to Los Angeles for their playoff push last season and will be around for a couple more years, presumably alongside Matt Roy for at least one of them. They were fantastic together after the trade, both in the regular season and the playoffs. If they can carry that over to next season, the team now has a legitimately great shutdown pair, freeing up their puck-movers for less stressful roles. It's not a certainty, but that's the bet Los Angeles is making.

I'm not expecting much change in his peripherals, but going to a better team immediately helps his upside for points and plus/minus. (jun8)

9. Chicago is bringing back one of their free agents, as Andreas Athanasiou was signed to a two-year, $4.25 million cap hit deal. This is an intriguing name for fantasy draft tables if he can somehow skate beside Connor Bedard for most of the season. 

In last Tuesday's Ramblings, I wrote about how Athanasiou had one of the largest market shares of team shots in the league. On top of that, Athanasiou’s SCA/60 was 3.27, nearly one full SCA/60 higher than the average Blackhawks forward (2.30), and third on the team behind Patrick Kane and Max Domi. Low bars all over the place, but Athanasiou certainly performed well when looking at the roster around him, and it makes him interesting as a free agent. The problem in the fantasy game is getting the ice time he needs to be valuable if/when he signs elsewhere, and consistent performance wherever he lands. (jun8)

10. On Thursday, I wrote about a bunch of players with regard to assists on teammate scoring chances (SCA), Kirill Kaprizov and Kirby Dach among others:

Kaprizov: This isn’t to surprise anyone with a stat – hey, Kaprizov is really good offensively! What I want to highlight here is just how crucial Kaprizov is to the team’s offense: his SCA/60 is 4.79, which is 83% higher than the team’s average. Kap’s mark was also 28% higher than the next-closest player, which was actually Marcus Foligno, and not someone like Mats Zuccarello or Matt Boldy. CapFriendly has Minnesota with two more years of those brutal buyout penalties to endure, but only three years of Kaprizov with his current contract. If the Wild want to take their next step in playoff success, the pressure is on Marco Rossi‘s shoulders as he’s their best chance of adding an impact player they can fit under the cap. It’s unfair but that’s the bed the team made. (jun8)

11. Dach: The Montreal forwards averaged 3.09 SCA/60, which is a lot higher than we’ve seen from some dregs like Chicago and Columbus. The second quirky part of this is that Dach, and not Nick Suzuki, led the team in SCA/60 at 5.13. Comparing across the league, it’s not far off from names like Jesper Bratt (5.29) and Roope Hintz (5.08). His assist rate at 5-on-5 wasn’t very good, but he also spent a lot of time away from Suzuki/Caufield, and there just wasn’t much scoring depth on the roster beyond them. Add the playmaking to some improving shot metrics and Dach is rounding into offensive form. (jun8)

[For more, follow the link…]

12. We love some big NHL trades to liven up the off-days between Stanley Cup Final games. In addition to Cliffy’s write-up on the three-way deal between LA, Philly, and Columbus, I wanted to add a few thoughts of my own.

Overlooked in the deal, I felt Sean Walker was someone that may be able to bounce back well this year after he was slow last year in his return from ACL & MCL surgeries. In LA, there was the issue of him being caught behind their depth on defense, but now in PHI there is a lot more room for him to play more and produce. The plus-minus will likely fall as a Flyer, but the overall numbers should see an uptick otherwise.

Walker was a 30-point defenseman before his injury, doing so in 18 minutes of ice time per game, and without preferential offensive treatment. A bounce-back performance, combined with the possibility of both growth and additional ice-time/opportunity, makes him a 35+ point defenseman heading into next season. (jun7)

13. With the rift that Tony DeAngelo seems to have with the rest of the team, there’s a very real possibility that he gets bought out. If he does, then we’re looking at RFA Cam York, or one of the prospects Yegor Zamula or Emil Andrae could step into some power play time. The Flyers seem not to want to give offensive opportunities to Travis Sanheim, so there is a chance (maybe 15%) that Walker gets some decent time on the top power play unit.

Philadelphia moves back in the right direction, after giving up a first for Rasmus Ristolainen they have covered up the gaffe by moving Ivan Provorov. Danny Briere’s first deal as a GM looks to be a great one for the team, netting Walker, a first, two seconds, a former second round pick in Helge Grans, and a reclamation project in net, all in exchange for Ivan Provorov who seemingly was done in Philly anyways. If Briere keeps this up then the Flyers may quickly move from rudderless mess to team on the rise in very quick order. That bodes well for some of their young players, prospects, and especially Cal Petersen if he can stick in the NHL this time around. (jun7)

14. I’m very curious what Kyle Dubas is going to do in Pittsburgh this year. One of the complaints about him is that he didn’t do enough to insulate the core-four in Toronto. In Pittsburgh there is much the same thing with the core four, and the supporting cast that needs some work. Now Pittsburgh doesn’t have the same cap issues that Toronto had, but at the same time, they also barely have any futures to be able to deal from to make some creative solutions.

Of the free agents, Jason Zucker is the only one who is fantasy relevant. He will have to take a pay cut if he wants to stick in his plum gig in the top-six, but Dubas either cutting ties, or Zucker chasing the money elsewhere would be an excellent opportunity to see who else could fit. Right now, Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel, and Rickard Rakell are three of the four top-six wingers, but there is still one spot up for grabs.

There are only eight forwards signed right now, and it could be seven if Mikael Granlund is bought out. With Alex Nylander on a one-way deal, he may actually be able to stick this year, and even better if he can do it in the top-six. He has some upside that has just never been fully realized, and his 50 points in 55 games at the AHL level last year was a great stepping stone in getting him back on track. (jun7)

15. With Cole Caufield inked to an eight-year extension, the Canadiens got their biggest piece of business done early in the offseason. With Nick Suzuki seemingly capping the earning number for the team, we should be able to use his number (and in later years the cap percentage) as an upper limit for contract projections. Maybe that is relevant for Kirby Dach in three years, or Juraj Slafkovsky in two. (jun7)

It might seem weird to hand out a near-$63M contract for a player that has 84 career points, but he does have one of the highest 5-on-5 goal rates for a player his age in modern NHL history. (Seriously, he’s in company with guys like Steven Stamkos and Jack Hughes for ages 19-22.) He has developed tremendous offensive chemistry with Nick Suzuki, and he has 48 goals in 83 games under coach Martin St. Louis. It won’t be long until he’s a perennial 40-goal threat, and maybe as soon as this coming season.

For fantasy, it is worth wondering how well-rounded Caufield actually will be. He hasn’t shown much playmaking penchant, though he’s still in his development. But if that doesn’t come around, his value will vary wildly depending on format because of his focus on goals and shots. Just beware that his prowess as a goal scorer may not necessarily be a 1:1 translation of his prowess as a fantasy option in multi-cat formats. It’s hard to say “he’ll be a 40-assist guy soon” when there isn’t much indication just yet that he will be, unlike his 40-goal threat. (jun6)

16. Looking forward, the next big move Montreal needs to look at is finding a goalie for the future, as I don’t feel they have one in the system at the moment. Carter Hart is also rumoured to be moved and could be an interesting fit. Jeremy Swayman, Dan Vladar, and Spencer Knight are also possibly moveable by their respective teams and should be of interest to the Habs.

In the meantime though, it has been confirmed that the cap for 2023-24 will only rise by $1 million (to $83.5 million), which means we’re again likely going to see a few shorter deals in free agency from players hoping to wait a year or two then hit a bigger payday down the line. (jun7)

17. The Flames re-signed AHL goalie Oscar Dansk to a one-year, two deal last Tuesday. When one of the first things a new GM does is lock up the goalie depth in the organization, it seems like it’s a good indication that a trade is being looked at higher up the ladder. I remain convinced that one of Dan Vladar or Jacob Markstrom will be moved, and it should be flexible at this point based on who generates the better return. (jun7)

18. Anaheim hired Greg Cronin to be the team's new head coach after Dallas Eakins was let go at the end of the season. Dobber had his take on the hiring here.

This is where I'm honest and say that outside of what Dobber mentioned, I just don't know much about his coaching style; being able to watch any meaningful number of AHL games during the NHL season isn't realistic. There have been a couple of fine players come through Cronin's teams like Logan O'Connor and Ryan Graves, but that Avalanche core went straight to the NHL, or were there before he was hired by the organization. He should be used to working with younger players, and the team needs a second wave of talent to fill out past (or even improve upon) Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, Mason McTavish, Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, Jamie Drysdale, Cam Fowler, and John Gibson. Dobber mentions the defensive traits this team is likely to exhibit, which they need because that was an awful defensive team in 2022-23. That doesn't necessarily mean good things in the fantasy game for the skaters, though.

All those prospects like Lukas Dostal, Nikita Nesterenko, Olen Zellweger, Nathan Gaucher, Pavel Mintyukov, and whomever they take second overall later this month need to start panning out. The team hit a late development with Terry, and McTavish certainly looks impressive, but they can’t afford another four years of Sam Steel, Max Comtois, Isac Lundestrom, and Max Jones occur. No slight intended to those guys, but after a sizable disaster at the expansion draft with Shea Theodore, they couldn’t afford to have a bunch of highly-touted prospects end up as bottom-half roster players. Three years ago, they needed impact players, and they got Terry and Trevor Zegras, who was a ninth overall pick anyway. The next crop needs to avoid repeating that history if the team wants to succeed anytime soon, and that will be on Cronin. (jun6)

19. Every year for 17 editions now, the Fantasy Prospects Report opens with a Top 50 ranking of all the prospects – including the ones who haven’t been drafted yet – and they cannot have played a single NHL regular season game. We weight defensemen such that goals are valued at 1.5 for them, giving more value to the position so that they get represented in this points-only keeper ranking. Since we’re in a bit of a dead zone for hockey news, I thought I would go through my personal list, and where it deviated a lot from the consensus panel of our 10 other experts. (jun5)

20. Not on my Top 50 at all:

Jayden Perron – By the time I finished my list, Perron was at 51, Firkus was at 52 and Dvorsky was at 53. Tremendous upside and the wait time shouldn’t be too bad. It was difficult to leave any of these three off the list.

Danila Yurov – I only considered him briefly. He’s signed for another year in the KHL, and he hasn’t figured out that league yet. The wait time here is too long. He would make my Top 70, but not my Top 50.

Laim Ohgren – Oof. Even longer of a wait time than Yurov. Tremendous hockey sense, which raises his upside, but waiting three or four years just for him to arrive?

Jagger Firkus – I’ve always been a big fan of Firkus and he even made my list last year. Why did he fall? He is still in desperate need of bulking up, and Seattle will be a tough team to crack this year and next.

Dalibor Dvorsky – A surefire NHLer, but it’s his strong two-way play that pushes him down my list. Early on, he may be a checking-line player, and that would make us wait for the production. Sean Couturier, Boone Jenner, Joel Eriksson Ek and Mikael Backlund did this. I don’t want to wait five or six years for those numbers.

Brad Lambert – Dominated in the WHL and I’m glad he was sent down to play against teenagers. His stock has been in a freefall for over a year now, and it was best that the Jets hit the reset button on him before it’s too late. But ‘reset’ also means ‘wait a long time’ – and those are words that I avoid in dynasty leagues.

In last year’s list I blew it by excluding Luke Evangelista, but I feel I was correct in excluding Aatu Raty, Danila Yurov, Conor Geekie and Brad Lambert.

* For more:

– Where I went lower;
– Where I went higher;
– Who I had that didn’t crack the Top 50.

[Follow the link…]

21. ANNOUNCEMENT

NEW TOOL – AHL Line Combinations!

Yes, you read that right. AHL game logs and stats that include IPP! We can’t get 100% accurate line combos, but we can get the line that was out there for every goal that is scored, which over time becomes close enough. You can now do your research even more thoroughly!

Check out our ‘AHL Central’ hub here.

AHL Line Combinations? AHL Line Combinations!

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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