The Prospects Report was released June 1. Updated last week with two more profiles (more to come). You can order all of the 2023-24 fantasy products in the shop here (or subscribe!).

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If you have any interesting #FantasyHockey questions, I can take a few for tonight's Ramblings.

Let's have 'em!

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) June 11, 2023

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How do you value age vs established vets in dynasty?

— Jesse (@DynastyHumbleSR) June 11, 2023

This is a great question but also a difficult one to answer, as it changes depending on your goals. In dynasty leagues, as in reality, winning tends to be cyclic. A team that is well put together can win three or four years in a row, five out of seven years, etc. But without savvy changes to the roster at the right time, the winning will eventually end and it becomes time for a rebuild. But in general, you can't load your full team with prospects if you plan on going for it. You also can't go without any prospects at all – or your winning run will be cut short. It's nice to have your entire roster under the age of 30, but at the same time, you can't let smart acquisitions slip past you because of a bias against 30+ aged players.

I held Sidney Crosby until this summer, and would have been fine with holding Crosby for another two or three years, because he is ridiculously under-valued in keeper leagues. For three years now, owners have been assuming that the decline would begin 'this year'. But each year, he continues to produce. He just had 93 points. When he starts to decline (he'll be 36 in the fall), the bottom isn't going to drop out all at once. I expect the decline to be gradual. So until I see that first 77-point season, I still value him as a reliable 85-point player.

One rule of thumb I do have, though, is the three-year rule. This year, next year and the year after. How will the player do? Because, generally speaking, an owner in a dynasty league will have a particular player on his roster for about two-and-a-half years. Trades happen. A lot. A lot more than in actual professional leagues. So why do you care if a player declines three years from now? Just care about this year and next, and possibly the year after that. If you don't see a decline happening in that span, you are fine in acquiring him. That can often mean a good, cheap deal.

One thing I do is I have a spreadsheet open 24/7 on my PC that has my roster on it. The players are listed in order of how I value them in this type of league. I need to make sure that I have enough 'sure thing' players at each position, plus a couple of backup 'sure thing' players to cover off injuries. The rest of my roster, I like to have prospects (or picks that will become prospects). I also like to make sure I have several goalies, because you can't count on them at all (unless you have Tier 0 goalies). This is a great way to keep an eye on the youth and potential on your team.

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Potential bounce back/fantasy relevance for Cole Sillinger in 2023-24?
Will Puljijarvi finally get his groove in CAR or will it still take a couple seasons?
Thoughts on LA F roster going forward as there are not many spots available for prospects

— Pat Quinn (not that one) (@FHPQuinn) June 11, 2023

Cole Sillinger will produce the way he did in his rookie season. He'll be fine. I'm always good with top prospects getting sent back to the minors after a season or two of being in the NHL when they were in the NHL at 18. To me, he's still ahead of schedule. As a 12^th overall pick, he's still getting the Golden Boy treatment from his team. As for when he will reach is potential – I still go by the 200-game BT theory, and he's about 60 games shy of that. So we're looking at 2024-25.

As for Jesse Puljujarvi, I really hate how he took a major step backward. I think he's getting in his own head. His overall possession game is still very strong – and it always has been. The fancy stats have always liked him. But he's squeezing the stick, not putting the puck in the net, and my confidence in him has crumbled (as with most people). Puljujarvi is an RFA this summer and the team may not qualify him at his $3M cap hit. However, they won't let him go – you often see a team come to an agreement with a player for less (maybe $2.25M AAV over two years) and after they don't qualify him by the deadline, you see the 'real' agreement announced the next day. According to our BT model, the 6-4 Puljujarvi is still 66 games away from his breakout season. That's the bright side. But for that 'breakout' season to be anything remotely significant. We need to at least see even marginal career highs next year (his best 82-game pace to date is 45 points). And I have very little faith that he will do that. If I had room on any of my dynasty teams (I don't), I wouldn't mind stashing him for cheap on my bench. But I wouldn't make room for him, even if his current owner was 'giving' him away.

The roster up front for the Kings is spoken for, assuming they sign all their RFA's. Fifteen spots filled. How do the odds stack up for the prospects cracking the lineup out of camp? Not great. But I have Samuel Fagemo, Alex Turcotte and Tyler Madden getting looks at some point in the season and the best one perhaps sticks full time in the second half.

But this question is really about Lias Andersson. Andersson is a different animal – he's been in the NHL for several years, but was rushed too quickly (mostly due to his insistence and threats that he won't be happy if he gets sent down). Andersson finally played a full season in the AHL last year, which he definitely needed, and he found his mojo. Andersson scored 31 goals and posted nearly a point-per-game. He'll be 25 in the fall, so this will be his big shot. If he can't crack the lineup, he strikes me as the type to just flee to Europe after his contract is up. Which, by the way, is up now – but I'm assuming he signs a one-year deal and gives the NHL one more shot. Madden and Fagemo also need new contracts.

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For dynasty drafts (points only) the top six players from upcoming 2023 draft are pretty agreed upon. Who would you select 7th ?

— Ben Newnham (@ben_newnham) June 11, 2023

My Top 7 that I have in the Fantasy Prospects Report, for points-only forwards in keeper leagues, factoring in wait time as well, is:

Connor Bedard

Adam Fantilli

Matvei Michkov

Leo Carlsson

Will Smith

Zach Benson

Ryan Leonard

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Long term thoughts on Marchenko and Holtz.

— Ian Sharp (@Princeton1973) June 11, 2023

Kirill Marchenko – A great complimentary goal-scorer, so if he can stick on Johnny Gaudreau's line, I think he's a potential 75-point player. However, I don't think he will get on that line – at least not for a sustained length of time. So, I think he ends up topping out as a 30-goal guy and low-60s for points. He had some bad luck in terms of grabbing some assists last season, otherwise he may have ended up with 40 points (he had 25, thanks to just four assists).

Alexander Holtz – Nothing has changed for me here. Holz was a seventh overall pick, so the franchise has a lot riding on him. I think he's a buy-low acquisition right now and I think he has 70-point upside in three to four years.

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How many points for Connor B next season? What kind of plus minus?

— glenn c (@funpatrol1) June 11, 2023

Well, if I was betting big money, I would bet the over on 85 points. If I was betting small money, I would take a real swing here and bet on 105 points. I believe he'll end up being a better player than Connor McDavid.

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How do you think Taylor Raddysh will do next season now that Bedard could be his center?

— Movie Freak Cos (@SeanECosgrove) June 11, 2023

I am currently bullish on Raddysh right now. That will change if Chicago signs a good winger this summer, but for now – Raddysh is my guy.

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In the name of drama, in a points league, is Eichel or Tuch the better 5+ year option?

— Username (@Pepepopo88) June 12, 2023

Eichel for sure. Way more upside. Tuch is still surprising me with how well he's producing. Eichel is surprising me with how poorly he is producing. Over time, I expect both to get closer to where they were expected to go.

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Does Dustin Wolf play in the NHL next season?

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— Ronnie Masella (@RonnieBlaydz) June 12, 2023

I think he gets in by midseason and backs up Jacob Markstrom. If playoffs are a factor, and Markstrom stumbles (I like Markstrom, and believe he'll bounce back), then Wolf could steal the job temporarily. It really depends on how well the new coach (Ryan Huska!) gets this team going. If they struggle, we'll see Wolf sooner. If they fly out the gates (as often happens with a new coach), then the Flames will wait on Wolf. The philosophy of NHL teams is that it never hurts to give a young prospect an extra year in the AHL.

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What 5 to 10 defencemen can we expect to have a bump in points from last year to this year??
And what 5 to 10 can we expect to definitely decline in points??

— tdubbs55 (@tdubbswpg) June 11, 2023

Increase

Juuso Valimaki, Samuel Girard, Erik Brannstrom, Calen Addison, Seth Jones

Decrease

Erik Karlsson, Vince Dunn, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Josh Morrissey, Brandon Montour, Dmitry Orlov

That's not to say they still won't do well. It's just they won't do quite as well. For example, maybe Karlsson gets 85 instead of 106, and Morrissey gets 67 instead of 76. Like that.

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What do you think Kent Johnson's outlook is for next year? Taking the next step? Decent rookie season, though have to admit I was hoping for ~55pts as opposed to 40

— Matt (@SabreMatt) June 11, 2023

A lot of this depends on what else Columbus does in the offseason, but I suspect he'll at least top 50 points. If the team doesn't load up to the point where he loses PP time, perhaps he pushes past 55.

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Once healthy Can you see a scenario where Patrick Kane signs again in Chicago on a cheap contract to play with Bedard?

— Jimmy S. 🇨🇦 (@doublejspencer) June 11, 2023

I can see that scenario, but I would bet he signs elsewhere. I don't think he's a fit at all with New York, but what I think never matters, so I can see them bringing him back on a sweetheart deal.

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What's your best advice for turning a points redraft league into a keeper?

— Ryan (@ryans382) June 12, 2023

Honestly, just have a keeper draft. No keeping your players from last year at all. Start fresh and do it right. The person with McDavid right now would want you to somehow transition the current rosters to a keeper format. But believe me – the person whose best player is Viktor Arvidsson is absolutely praying that you just start from scratch. Be fair. Check out my "how to start a keeper league" section.

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Extremely competitive dynasty league debating keepers (14) for next year,

Drop Kris Letang and keep Brandon Clarke? Life after 2 strokes seems too risky to pass on Clarkes upside.

— American Snow Frogs (@Starsblazin) June 12, 2023

Yes, I would do this. Agreed.

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Will Mason Lohrei be fantasy relevant in 2023-24, what do you think his upside is and when?
Thank you for the opportunity

— Robert Solorio (@RobertSolorio20) June 11, 2023

He'll get some looks, but I don't think he sticks this season. When he does, expect lowish production the first two or three years, other than Hits and BLKS, which will be great right from the get-go.

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Thank you everyone for submitting a question, sorry I didn't get to all of them. They were really great, as usual, and you can expect this to fill my Ramblings every four weeks or so throughout the offseason. Follow me on Twitter.

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Enjoy the game, Tuesday! I suspect Vegas will wrap it up, as I don't think the Panthers can overcome Matt Tkachuk not playing at 100%. But I loved his heroics this postseason and would enjoy seeing more.

Not enough love has been given to my man Jonathan Marchessault. If Vegas does put it away, Marchessault will likely lead this year's postseason in scoring (Tkachuk is currently tied with him at 24 points, Jack Eichel has 23). Marchessault leads the league in playoff goals with 13, plus/minus with plus-16, and he has three GWG. A big game from him would get him the Conn Smythe?

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NEW TOOL – AHL Line Combinations!

Yes, you read that right. AHL game logs and stats that include IPP! We can't get 100% accurate line combos, but we can get the line that was out there for every goal that is scored, which over time becomes close enough. You can now do your research even more thoroughly!

Check out our 'AHL Central' hub here.

AHL Line Combinations? AHL Line Combinations!

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See you next Monday.