Welcome to our final skater installment of the Most Valuable series. We will return to the playoff results next week. We have completed reviews for centers, and right and left wingers, and today we will move to defensemen. As a reminder here is a brief description from the first article on the process.

'Most Valuable' is a tricky term that is going to be completely dependent on the league specific context. For the purposes of this article we are going to use standard Yahoo point scoring to calculate the total fantasy points for each player. This year the stats include goals, assists, power-play points, shots, blocks and (unfortunately) plus/minus. Obviously this means there might be some general deviations to your league, based on your settings, but it is at least a good starting point. In order to grab all of this data I am exporting the Multicat and Big Board Reports for the full season, and doing a bit of rearranging so I can have only the pertinent fields.

In addition to total fantasy points I have also pulled Yahoo average draft position data (ADP). These ADPs are based on preseason drafts so don't take into account leagues and drafts that started part way through the season. The idea here is that if we compare the draft position to the end of year fantasy points for all players we can get an equation that lets us say, 'on average a player with X draft position would be expected to get Y fantasy points'. Once we have that we can compare that expected number to the player's actual number and see who performed the best based on their draft position. 

First up, who were the top five defensemen this year?

Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points	PP%	Total Time On Ice	Fantasy Points	Yahoo ADP
DOUGIE HAMILTON	D	N.J	82	74	70.3	21:46	775.5	101.4
ERIK KARLSSON	D	S.J	82	101	74.1	25:37	734.1	138.5
RASMUS DAHLIN	D	BUF	78	73	66.7	25:48	726.5	80.6
BRANDON MONTOUR	D	FLA	80	73	73.9	24:08	718.8	NA
ROMAN JOSI	D	NSH	67	59	67.9	25:10	718.1	20

What a wild selection of players. With the exception of Roman Josi, none of these players were projected to go at the top of their position. There are also some notable exclusions from this list too – Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Victor Hedman, etc.

With Dougie Hamilton at least, we expected him to be on this list couple of years ago, but with his injury and less than ideal return there definitely were some questions going into 2022-23. It is safe to say he has erased all of those concerns and he will be sought after going forward.

I did want to take a brief moment to look at Erik Karlsson. There is just something to Karlsson being the primary offensive force on a team. He was on some of his old Ottawa teams, and with Brent Burns out of the picture he was relied on more heavily this year in San Jose. His 101-point pace is almost a 20-point increase on his previous career high and a 40-point increase from his most recent seasons. On the surface the results just seem wildly unsustainable. The good news is that the increase came with increased total time on ice, power-play time, shot rates, and expected goals.

Karlsson also saw increased point participation numbers, as well as personal and team shooting percentages. All three of those were the highest of his career. If all were adjusted to fit his career numbers (and assuming a slight boost from his most recent number in San Jose due to after Brent Burns' departure) we would be looking at a likely point-per-game season.

Assuming that 2022-23 wasn't a fluke in terms of deployment and shot rates, and nothing dramatic happens in the offseason, he could do something similar again. We have very recent evidence, though, that changes in team makeup impact his projections a lot, so that is something to watch for in the off season.

Let's move on to defensemen who provided the most value once we take into account their draft position?

Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points	PP%	Total Time On Ice	Fantasy Points	Yahoo ADP	Expected Fantasy PTS	Δ in Fantasy PTS
DOUGIE HAMILTON	D	N.J	82	74	70.3	21:46	775.5	101.4	497.3	278.2
ERIK KARLSSON	D	S.J	82	101	74.1	25:37	734.1	138.5	464.4	269.7
RASMUS DAHLIN	D	BUF	78	73	66.7	25:48	726.5	80.6	515.7	210.8
MIRO HEISKANEN	D	DAL	79	73	64.6	25:29	687.4	97.2	501.0	186.4
MIKHAIL SERGACHEV	D	T.B	79	64	48.1	23:49	645.4	138.4	464.5	180.9

Not a shocking list here given the rankings above. We have our top three most valuable candidates, as all were late draft picks, plus a couple of new faces.

Mikhail Sergachev has been the subject of a lot of writing this season as he kept up his usual solid contributions, but then was awarded the top power-play seemingly out of nowhere. Given that there hasn't been much confirmed about this situation, it is hard to know what to expect for next season. With that power-play he is (and was) a dynamite pick. Without it, a solid if not inspired selection.

I really want to focus on Miro Heiskanen though. We have been watching him for a while and finally with John Klingberg out of the picture it was his time to shine – and did he. He jumped from a career high 42-point pace to a 73-point 82-game pace. With it he saw increases to his time on ice, his power-play time, his shot rates, and his expected goal numbers. There were also slight increases to his personal and team shooting percentages, but nowhere nearly as dramatic as what we saw with Karlsson. This looks like a very solid, likely repeatable performance.

And because we can't look at most valuable without thinking about the flip side – now on to the disappointments.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points	PP%	Total Time On Ice	Fantasy Points	Yahoo ADP	Expected Fantasy PTS	Δ in Fantasy PTS
ZACH WERENSKI	D	CBJ	13	8	66.9	23:36	90.9	99.2	499.2	-408.3
BOWEN BYRAM	D	COL	42	24	26.2	21:53	254.5	119.7	481.1	-226.6
MATT DUMBA	D	MIN	79	14	2.4	21:17	253.1	165.8	440.3	-187.2
TOREY KRUG	D	STL	63	32	56.6	18:35	318.4	103.7	495.2	-176.8
JOHN KLINGBERG	D	MIN	67	33	52.6	20:37	306.8	120.2	480.6	-173.8

Zach Werenski and Bowen Byram clearly make the list because of significant injury problems in 2022-23. Matt Dumba was a long shot in most cases but did provide a bit more value in leagues that include hits. He, not surprisingly, hit most waiver wires pretty early on.

Torey Krug and John Klingberg sort of fit a similar style of player where the manager is relying on assist production, and particularly on the power-play as they are just not high producers in any other category. Both struggled to do so this year, and for Klingberg at least means he is going to have a very interesting summer. He clearly bet on himself taking a one-year deal in Anaheim and it didn't really work out that well for him. He had the reverse of most of the above players – lowest career point pace, decreases in time on ice, power-play, time, shot rates, and expected goals. His underlying numbers are fine, but not great, which doesn't make me think he deserved a lot better. We will certainly see where he lands, but the prognosis isn't very exciting.

There isn't a lot more to be said about Krug either. He lost a lot of time, performed poorly on the power-play (and lost time to Justin Faulk for a while), and really was just not that valuable. We will see what happens during the offseason, but again not a very exciting prognosis here. 

And finally, who were the best players left undrafted in most leagues?

Name	Pos	Team	GP	Points	PP%	Total Time On Ice	Fantasy Points
BRANDON MONTOUR	D	FLA	80	73	73.9	24:08:00	718.8
JOSH MORRISSEY	D	WPG	78	76	66.7	24:14:00	669.8
ADAM LARSSON	D	SEA	82	33	3.5	23:38	503.7
RYAN GRAVES	D	N.J	78	26	1.2	19:57	466.9
BRADY SKJEI	D	CAR	81	38	18.4	21:49	447.2

There are several fun names on this list, and I want to start with Brandon Montour. There was some hype back in Anaheim, but he definitely wasn't a household name. His playoff performance might have changed that a bit. He had never eclipsed a 37-point pace, but from the start of the season was seeing time on the top power-play. For a chunk of the season, it was a two-defensemen and three-forward affair, but when they went to one D, it was often Aaron Ekblad who lost out. All told, Montour saw over 24 minutes a night (career high) and over four minutes a night on the power-play (also career high by a mile). All of that resulted in averaging three shots per game for the first time in his career. His team shooting percentage was a little high, but nothing else looks too crazy, which is a nice vote of confidence for next season.

Adam Larsson is a bit of a surprise to be listed here, though obviously he is in a slightly different league than Montour et al. His 33-point pace was a career high, but so was his shot count and his block count. If you happened to own him from November 27 to January 27, you also got a 56-point pace (and a seven-game point streak) out of him on top of all that. The team scored a bit often when he was on the ice, but he could still be a nice fourth option going forward if you are rewarded for peripheral categories (solid hits as well).   

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