Frozen Tool Forensics: Playoff Improvements From Jarvis, Seguin, Montour, and More

Chris Kane

2023-06-23

That's it folks – the playoffs are wrapped. Congrats to the Golden Knights.

We have a couple of playoff themed wrap-ups here before we completely close out the season, and this week we are going to return to our review of player deployment. In our previous articles we analyzed team deployment in the lead up to the playoffs and during the playoffs to find players whose stock increased or decreased on their respective teams.

(Some quotes/context from the earlier articles)

Given smaller sample size we are not going to read too much into point paces, shot rates, etc. but instead look at how players were utilized in these win-or-go-home series. Doing so might give us a bit of insight into how coaches are viewing certain players and who might be primed for a different role next season compared to this past one. This is also the playoffs so to some extent we would assume that a team's top players see a bit of an increase while some depth players might fall off a bit.

And now on to the process. We will be looking at deployment and specifically percent of time on the power-play, and total time on ice. We will be using percent when possible as overtime games can add significant time to a player's overall count without changing that player's real deployment opportunity. In order to get this data we will be running a Big Board report for the playoffs and comparing that to a second custom Big Board report for the last two months of the regular season. That comparison will tell us which players have gained or lost time between these two samples.

The following tables can be a little bit cumbersome, but we are looking at four data points. We have basic scoring data (points per game, and shots per game), then basic time on ice data (percent of the power-play, and total time on ice). The first white section of the table is player information. The gray section is the player's performance during the playoffs, and the final white section is the difference between playoff performance and the final two months of the regular season so we can see who lost and gained time.

First up in alphabetical order; Carolina

NamePosTeamGPPTS/GPSOG/G%PPTOIΔ PTS/GPΔ SOG/GPΔ %PPΔ TOI
SETH JARVISRCAR150.672.4766.319:550.170.00273:08
BRENT BURNSDCAR150.63.7367.426:00-0.20.5310.93:02
JESPER FASTRCAR150.61.9312.816:460.270.9311.92:25
STEFAN NOESENLCAR150.531.6060.417:020.150.013.94:11

Unlike a few other potential young guns reviewed in this series, Seth Jarvis saw a big increase in deployment. In total he jumped up 27 percent of Carolina's potential power-play time, and three minutes of total ice time. He was on a top unit of Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas, Brent Burns and Jordan Staal (oddly) for the last game. It is great to see that both he and Stefan Noesen were provided opportunities throughout the playoffs – it bodes well for 23-24.

Jesper Fast is an interesting name here. By the end of the playoffs, he was on a second power play and a third line. He gained time overall, though some of that is likely due to line matching and may not be a strong indicator of better deployment in 23-24.

NamePosTeamGPPTS/GPSOG/G%PPTOIΔ PTS/GPΔ SOG/GPΔ %PPΔ TOI
JORDAN STAALCCAR150.532.006.217:440.230.33-3.51:41
JESPERI KOTKANIEMICCAR150.471.6032.616:50-0.26-0.20-3.11:16
BRADY SKJEIDCAR150.271.8714.723:46-0.23-0.50-11.42:03
SHAYNE GOSTISBEHEREDCAR150.21.603218:00-0.24-0.47-12.10:25
JESSE PULJUJARVIRCAR70.141.7123.711:22-0.06-0.2913.4-0:11

Jesse Puljujarvi's seven playoff performances clearly weren't what Carolina had in mind when they traded for him. It is a little hard to use these games to project anything, but it doesn't bode well as far as fresh starts go.

Similarly,Shayne Gostisbehere seemed to fall out of favor a bit. While most players in Carolina didn't actually lose total ice time, Gostisbehere saw the smallest increase, and lost the most power-play time. Fortunately for him he was still on the second unit, but there is still a lot to sort out for him during the off season.

On to Dallas:

NamePosTeamGPPTS/GPSOG/G%PPTOIΔ PTS/GPΔ SOG/GPΔ %PPΔ TOI
ROOPE HINTZCDAL191.263.1166.818:010.30.487.8-0:11
MIRO HEISKANENDDAL190.631.8472.227:48-0.55-0.556.31:58
TYLER SEGUINRDAL190.472.8449.816:14-0.210.119.20:08
COLIN MILLERDDAL100.11.3017.116:17-0.2-0.2612.8-0:36

Dallas is a bit of an anomaly where basically nothing has changed. There are very few players who gained or lost any statistically relevant amount of total ice time, or power-play time. We see small increases for the top power-play (which includes Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen), but the most notable names (Tyler Seguin and Colin Miller) have less exciting rationales.

Seguin was the prime beneficiary of Joe Pavelski missing time, both at even strength and on the power-play, and even held the top line gig for a few games when Pavelski was back and healthy. He ended up on the second line and second power-play with a few disappointing players who we will get to in just a second. While he looked good for stretches he wasn't really able to build off of what had started to become a bit of a redemption tour.

Miller only played about half of the games, and got a boost from the game where Heiskanen missed time. All things considered I am not reading too much into his increase in power-play deployment.

NamePosTeamGPPTS/GPSOG/G%PPTOIΔ PTS/GPΔ SOG/GPΔ %PPΔ TOI
MAX DOMICDAL190.681.7928.214:51-0.04-0.45-17.8-01:59
EVGENII DADONOVRDAL160.631.8128.115:2900.28-6.40:14
MASON MARCHMENTLDAL180.330.8917.514:03-0.17-0.90-6.3-01:48

This is a very interesting trio. All three were brought in over the course of the 22-23 season to provide depth. All three showed little flashes of effectiveness, but it appears that all three couldn't be relied upon then it counted. Max Domi and Mason Marchment both lost almost two minutes of total time (which hurt shot and point paces), and ended up playing less than 15 minutes a night on average. Domi and Evgenii Dadonov did put up at least a few points, but really not a lot to like from this trio.

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And now Florida:

NamePosTeamGPPTS/GPSOG/G%PPTOIΔ PTS/GPΔ SOG/GPΔ %PPΔ TOI
SAM BENNETTCFLA200.753.6565.220:520.190.6539.45:11
BRANDON MONTOURDFLA210.623.4383.426:58-0.450.067.73:05
ANTON LUNDELLCFLA210.482.0524.818:040.150.23112:19
NICK COUSINSLFLA210.331.242.714:2600.09-34:11

Unlike in Dallas, essentially everything changed in Florida. Players were all over the place in their deployment, though most gained total ice time (likely all of those overtime games). Brandon Montour really cemented his top D man status. He gained time overall sure, but it is really the demotion of Aaron Ekblad (more on him in a minute) that is great for Montour. He and Sam Bennett, along with Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe rounded out the top power-play. Bennett also was up with Reinhart and Verhaeghe on Florida's second line. So good news for Bennett as well. I also like to see Anton Lundell moving up. His two minutes of total time on ice included a promotion to the top line with Barkov and Anthony Duclair by the final game (though of course Matthew Tkachuk was out so that might not be permanent or indicative of next season)

NamePosTeamGPPTS/GPSOG/G%PPTOIΔ PTS/GPΔ SOG/GPΔ %PPΔ TOI
ANTHONY DUCLAIRRFLA200.552.0013.715:190.1-0.15-9.40:28
AARON EKBLADDFLA200.41.3031.823:57-0.01-1.96-230:50
EETU LUOSTARINENLFLA160.310.887.116:41-0.36-0.90-6.50:03
ERIC STAALCFLA210.240.673.311:38-0.13-0.78-1.8-03:52
RYAN LOMBERGLFLA130.081.310.612:00-0.18-0.80-4.6-02:21

Duclair is somewhat interesting here given many were hoping for good things upon his return from injury, but the real story is certainly Aaron Ekblad. Even with his on again off again season, he still managed to lose 23 percent of the team's power-play time during the playoffs by dropping officially down to be the second power-play quarterback. His regular season deployment was buoyed somewhat by the fact that Florida kept using the two D on the top power-play, but this playoff run definitely indicates that he is likely the odd man out going forward.

And finally, Vegas:

NamePosTeamGPPTS/GPSOG/G%PPTOIΔ PTS/GPΔ SOG/GPΔ %PPΔ TOI
JACK EICHELCVGK221.183.2369.619:000.070.3011.20:12
JONATHAN MARCHESSAULTRVGK221.143.6453.217:250.350.776.10:02
CHANDLER STEPHENSONCVGK220.911.5960.418:200.230.093.30:40
ZACH WHITECLOUDDVGK220.360.864.618:420.17-0.4741:10

Not actually a lot to report here on the Stanley Cup champs. Jack Eichel and Jonthan Marchessault saw some modest increases on the power-play – mostly indications that that unit was used just a little bit more heavily than in the regular season. Chandler Stephenson got to spend time with Mark Stone at even strength which is a significant improvement over third line duties which happened on occasion over the course of the regular season, but overall, not a lot changed for this group.

NamePosTeamGPPTS/GPSOG/G%PPTOIΔ PTS/GPΔ SOG/GPΔ %PPΔ TOI
IVAN BARBASHEVLVGK220.821.4524.615:340.12-0.08-21-00:01
NICOLAS ROYRVGK220.51.6829.415:01-0.03-0.78-21.1-02:22
WILLIAM CARRIERLVGK180.330.892.59:59-0.23-1.44-41.6-03:58
PHIL KESSELRVGK40.51.25811:470.05-0.34-24.7-02:18

While we didn't see much in the way of increases, we did see quite a few players losing time. Some of that has to do with Mark Stone returning and the shuffling of everyone else down the lineup, but some of it is just the more traditional players' roles being limited. There was a lot of power-play time lost here. Phil Kessel has only a very small sample size, but he, William Carrier, and Nicolas Roy have been serving most often as depth forwards, so it isn't exactly a surprise to find them losing time when the team is healthy and the stakes are high. I find Ivan Barbashev a bit more interesting. He got great even strength deployment with that top line, but still only managed 15 and a half minutes a night. Given his point and peripheral combo he could be a valuable player in 23-24 if he stays in Vegas, but the low total ice time, and lack of power-play time is a bit disappointing.   

That is all for this week.

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