Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: K. Connor; Saros; Kuzmenko; Fancy Play Syndrome; Marchand; Buchnevich; Shesterkin; Auction Budgeting & More

Rick Roos

2023-06-28

Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Adam)

I’m in a 12 team H2H keep 5 (max 1 goalie) league. Roster spots are 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, 5Bench (only 1 goalie allowed on bench, for 3 total), 1IR+ spot, and 1IR spot for season ending keepers. Categories and weighting are G = 4.0, A = 2.0, +/- = 0.5, SHG = 2.0, SHA = 1.0, W = 3.0, L = -2.0, SO = 3.0, SV = 0.125, GA = -0.25. I'm narrowed my list of possible keepers to six: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Kyle Connor, Kevin Fiala, Ilya Sorokin and Rasmus Dahlin. Others I could keep are Roman Josi, John Tavares, Victor Hedman, Zach Hyman, Nikolaj Ehlers and Jeff Skinner.

Of the 6 I'm considering, Hughes is a lock. At mid season, I thought Connor was as well, but his slow start and finish have me wondering. Bratt seems like he could be the next Johnathan Huberdeau (the Florida version). Fiala won me the fantasy playoffs last year with his torrid stretch run. Dahlin was having a monster year until he returned from injury. Sorokin seems settled into a solid place as a top 5 goalie (he finished 8th in goalie scoring in our league, 0.5 pts behind Vasilevskiy). I think it comes down to Fiala, Bratt or maybe Connor as the odd man out. Which five would you keep?

First, I’m not sure how you arrived upon the Bratt to Huberdeau comparison. I like Bratt’s IPPs – don’t get me wrong, and his new deal shows how New Jersey values him. But this past season he only had 73 points despite his best ever SH% and SOG rate, and 22 PPPts. Do I think he could someday score 85 points? It could happen, especially if NJ improves as a team, leading to a rising tide lifting all boats, including his. But playing with Hughes is both a benefit and drawback, because Hughes has such a high SOG rate and is all over the scoresheet, leaving his wingers to fight over scraps more so than usual.

In your format, which is decidedly un-banger but goal-centric, I love Connor. Yes, for him there were a few early and late bumps in the road last season and Winnipeg might blow things up; but I still feel his floor is higher than Bratt’s and he is a driver of offense, even more so if Winnipeg retools/rebuilds. I’m taking Connor over Bratt for sure. If not, you’d be doing what I refer to as “fancy play syndrome” which is when you ignore the obvious in favor of a plausible yet more farfetched outcome, namely that of Bratt becoming Huberdeau. Yes, I realize it took Huberdeau well past his 200 game breakout threshold to shine; but part of that was being rushed into the NHL, which wasn’t the case with Bratt.

I get that Fiala is great because of his track record of going nuts at the end of the season; but LA is a very deep team and I don’t see a path to any of its players getting more than 85 points, if even that many. If you put Fiala with some centers, he’d be a 90+ point guy. But in LA, I fear he has a ceiling. That ceiling might not make him a better keep than Josi, who has done enough to prove he’s among the best rearguard scorers and his team now also has a more offense-friendly coach. Plus, Josi is second in goals among d-men over the past two seasons, six ahead of third, which is huge in your goal-centric league.

So my five keepers would be Hughes, Sorokin (already elite and still likely not peaked), Dahlin, Josi, and Connor. If you have non-keep remorse over Bratt or Fiala, redraft one or both. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Chris)

I’m in a 24 team dynasty salary cap league that dresses 12F-6D-2G with skater points being Goals: 3, Assists: 2, PPP: 1, plus minus: +/- 1, and 0.25 per penalty minute. We also have 3 bench and 25 minor slots. I can pick 2 players to keep for 4 years, with the first two years being at the players' 2023-24 salaries and the 3rd and 4th year at their 2025-26 salary. I'm deciding between Travis Konecny, Andrei Kuzmenko, Kyle Connor and Jake Guentzel. At the start of year, I was planning to keep Connor and Guentzel. Now I’m a little worried about their team situations. Can you rank the players for both short term (2 years) and long term (4 years)?

First and foremost, I'm making it my mission to steer every possible reader as I can away from Andrei Kuzmenko, or at least in instances where better retention or draft options exist. Why? Kuzmenko's stats scream regression, as pointed out in my Goldipucks column where he was covered. Yes, he seems tethered to Elias Pettersson; but elite centers sometimes don't produce elite wingers. I also am worried that Kuzmenko's effort level, which already was up and down (three games of 4+ SOG in his first six, only four more after that, versus 15 games of zero and 22 with just one), will drop. As we saw, Rick Tocchet wasn't shy about pushing him down the line-up when he eased of the gas pedal last season.

Need more convincing as to why Kuzmenko should be avoided? How about that Kuzmenko had 39 goals but only hit a total of three posts and crossbars, which is the kind of good luck that won't recur. One of the reasons he didn't hit many though was his double digit total of tip in goals, which, as was pointed out in the Goldipucks column, put him in the company of three other players over the last 10+ seasons, who all saw their scoring rate drop by 8+ the next season.

But wait – there's more! Of the 204 instances of wingers dating back to 2000-01 who scored 35+ goals in a season, his SOG total (i.e., 142) was lowest by 36 and a mere four others had under 200. He also tallied 14 PPG despite only 37 PPSOG; and since 2000-01, there have been 219 instances of forwards potting 14+ man advantage markers in a season, with his PPSOG rate ranking him second worst and there being only 11 other instances of those who had fewer than 50. Does this make Kuzmenko not keepable no matter what the circumstances? I'm not saying that; however, it won't take a lot for someone else to be a more attractive option given how many points Kuzmenko stands to shed. And for sure the other three here are better options.

Then which of the other three do we omit? With goal emphasis and only one minor "banger" category, I'm keeping Connor for sure. It is possible that Winnipeg blows things up, what with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler set to be UFAs in 2024. But Connor is a very talented player who I think will produce even without a supporting cast. He has point per game downside and has averaged nearly a goal per every other game over the past four seasons, which is very, very good.

Konecny and Guentzel are interesting comparisons, with both set to be UFAs after this coming season. In the case of Konecny, he can go to greener pastures, i.e., away from John Tortorella. As for Guentzel, he was flying high until last season, and there are no red flags pointing to why he did worse, raising some concern he was benefitting from the Pens' stars, who seemed to slow a bit last season. I think Guentzel will sign for more than Konecny, but probably not out-produce him. Perhaps you do keep Guentzel if looking at the next two seasons; but at the four season mark and beyond, I'm going with Konecny, who just seems to be scratching the surface rather than Guentzel who might be paid more and produce either not better enough or not even better at all. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Gary)

I'm in a 10 team dynasty H2H league. Cats are G, A, PPP, SOG, Hits, Blks, FOW, W, GAA, SV%, SO, with rosters of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2Util, 2G, 4 Bench, 1 NA, 4 IR+. My roster at the end of the season was:

C: Sidney Crosby, Roope Hintz, Nico Hischier, Dylan Cozens, Brock Nelson, Sean Couturier (IR+)

LW: Leon Draisaitl C/LW), Brayden Schenn (C/LW), Alexis Lafreniere (LW/RW), Jared McCann (LW/C)

RW: Nikita Kucherov, Troy Terry, Jonathan Marchessault (LW/RW), Dawson Mercer (C/RW), Patrik Laine (LW/RW) (IR+)

D: Victor Hedman, Moritz Seider, Dougie Hamilton, Thomas Chabot (IR+), Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Miro Heiskanen

G: Tristan Jarry, Ville Husso, Devon Levi, Pyotr Kochetkov (NA)

Prospects: Seth Jarvis, Marco Rossi, Cole Sillinger, William Eklund

I went to the finals last year but my weaknesses were in hits and goaltending cats. I am planning to try and win next year. But first I need some help with roster moves. Laine and Chabot are on IR+ right now and will need to be activated next season since they won’t be eligible anymore. Who knows what Couturier will be able to do? Also, Jarvis and Sillinger are no longer eligible as prospects so I have to add them to my main roster at the start of next season or lose them to FA. I feel like Jarvis might be worth keeping but maybe not Sillinger.

We will also have a 4 round prospect draft this summer. I have the 11th, 35th and 39th overall picks. All 2023 drafted prospects are available, plus previously undrafted/unowned prospects like Logan Stankoven, Olen Zellweger, Lane Hutson, Lukas Reichel, Kevin Korchinski, Pavel Mintyukov, etc.

Top free agents available are Gustav Forsling, Michael Bunting, Jonathan Quick, Mark Stone, David Perron, Anders Lee, Bryan Rust, Torey Krug, Mike Matheson, Jakub Vrana, Luke Schenn, John Gibson. I picked up players like Nelson, Mercer and McCann from waivers during the playoffs. I will go into next season with 2nd waiver priority.

I’m leaning towards opening up roster spots for Laine, Chabot and Jarvis and letting the rights expire on Sillinger. Would you agree? If so, how should I go about opening up these roster spots? Are there any clear drops that could accomplish this or should I try to make a trade? Trades can be agreed to in the summer but are executed at the start of the next season.

At the outset, although I realize the list of players available as free agents at the end of the season might not reflect the depth of options available, as some might have had unfavorable fantasy playoff schedules or perhaps were on a cold spell. Still, there are some pretty decent names out there, enough so that I'm less concerned about who you have to drop.

I'm on board with dropping Sillinger. He might be great someday, and maybe even good this season. But he isn't worth carrying. Redraft him if you want.

I'm letting Couturier go too. I fear he likely will be tasked with tougher minutes for John Tortorella. Yes, it's tough to not hold onto someone who had a scoring pace of 70+ four seasons in a row. But he's 30 years old now and there might be lingering injury effects, or if not that then at least a period at the start of the season where he needs to get back into true game shape. I like the upside of Jarvis and the still real potential of Laine better than Couturier at this point.

After that it gets tougher. I realize Buffalo is a team on the rise and Levi played some strong hockey at the end of 2022-23, plus has already been painted as having a shot to win the starting job next season. But let's not forget that lurking is Ukko-Pekka-Luukkonen, who has hit some bumps in the road but likely will be given first crack at the #1 or #1A job. Levi could be a drop, in hopes of a redraft.

For the last spot, as crazy as it sounds it might be Laffy. Yes, Gerard Gallant is gone and with that his banishing of young talent to the bottom six. But Peter Laviolette isn't exactly know for heaping minutes on youngsters either. Laffy also has had top-six chances and failed to produce. His scoring and shooting rates have been inching upwards, and he's just past his breakout threshold, so he'd be a tough drop. But I think we're at a point that Laffy's chances of living up to even a semblance of early predictions are unlikely, and he might be only a 60 point player at his best, which is not enough to be kept.

The other option is Schenn, although he finished very strong and he's great in multi-cat. I'd be hesitant to drop him, although I'm also not sure how much longer he'll produce as well as he has. Still, I like him over Laffy if forced to choose between the two.

If you're not in agreement with these proposed drops, you can explore the trade route instead, in which case I'd try to package Karlsson and Crosby, both of whom likely won't again have values as high as they are now. Granted, I could still see both doing well; however, another GM might be so enamored with the pair as to give you a top forward in return, making it so you can keep either Levi or Laffy if you want. I would at least look at that as an option. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Shaun)

I'm in a 10 team, keep 8 (any position), weekly H2H points league. Roster spots are as follows: 8F, 4D, 1Util, 2G, 5 Bench spots (no IR, and only 2 goalies maximum on bench). Categories and weighting are: G (3), A (2), +\- (1), PIMs (0.25), PPPts (1), SHG (2), GWG (2) HAT (2), Defensemen points (1); W (5), GA (-1), SV (0.1), SO (3).

As you can see, defenseman points are a key element here, and a bona fide PP QB can have a huge impact as they can triple dip on PPPts. My proposed keepers are Nikita Kucherov, Jack Hughes, Elias Pettersson, Kirill Kaprizov, Cale Makar, Evan Bouchard, and Igor Shesterkin. That leaves me one more spot, with the players I'm debating between being Clayton Keller, Motirz Seider, Pavel Buchnevich, Kevin Fiala, Dylan Larkin, Vitek Vanecek, and Valeri Nishkushkin.

I feel like my top seven keepers are pretty much locked down but was looking for some advice on the final keeper spot. I'm also wondering whether trading Shesterkin would be a worthwhile commodity to get more draft capital, and so I can keep additional Fs/D instead. I finished second this year so I'll be drafting 9th overall. I have a soft spot for Seider as I kept him last year and think he is capable of big things, but I want to be tactical, not sentimental. And I definitely think there is merit to a zero G strategy, but also that Shesterkin may be an exception. What is your advice?

I am in full agreement with those seven. They are all monsters, and with that core in place you should be primed to succeed if you have even a decent draft. But not keeping Shesterkin is sacrilege.

Yes I realize that goalies are less dependable in today's NHL than they were in even the recent past; however, Shesterkin is someone you hold onto with an iron grip in fantasy. Thinking of not keeping him would be another example of, as noted in my response to the first question, "fancy play syndrome," where you overthink something to an extent that it leads you to the wrong result when instead you should just play it safe/smart. That all having been said, by all means go ahead and shop Igor. I'm just not sure what you can get in return that would make it worth parting with him, especially given your other amazing keepers. If you had some holes in your keepers it would be one thing, but you're in great shape, and Shesterkin is a key piece of that puzzle. Keep him and know that you have to worry that much less about goalies.

With such a solid group of skater keepers, I'm inclined to try for home run potential in terms of your last keeper. By that I mean pick someone who maybe has a slightly lower floor than the others but could also have the highest ceiling. Fiala, Buchnevich and Larkin are all likely safe 80-85 point players but I'm not seeing a path for any of them to hit 90+ points, whereas Keller could do so. After all, despite playing in for the Yotes, Keller finished with 48 points in his last 39 games and averaged 3.3 SOG per game, well above his 2.7 rate for the season. He's arrived, and his ceiling is realistically higher than all of your other options. Seider is tempting in that he's now "the guy" in Detroit; however, I see him taking another two or more years before he really comes into his own.

If you disagree with my take though and would rather take a "safer" pick, I can't fault you for that. If so, I'd rank them as Buchnevich first, then Larkin, then Fiala. I've got Fiala last because there are too many scoring options in LA. Larkin should fare better one of these days once Detroit improves; however, they shouldn't be markedly better in 2023-24 or perhaps even 2024-25, so for now he treads water in terms of his scoring. As for Buchnevich, as was noted in my most recent poll all he's done is seen his scoring rate improve every season he's been in the league. But I do think he's at or near his ceiling, especially since the Blues also are a pretty deep team. So Buch is below Keller, but above the rest. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Martin)

I’m in a 9 team keeper, 45 players owned per team, league with weekly lineups consisting of 12F 4D 1G counting toward stats, which are Goal/Assist – 1 point; Goalie Win – 2 points; Shutout – extra 1 points; OT/ Shootout Loss – 1 point.

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There are 2 specificities regarding keepers, namely 1) we have distinct protection lists for "regulars" and “rookies”, the latter being any skater with <200 NHL games played any goalie with < 121 GP, and 2) we can protect between 5 and 9 "regulars" and any teams who protect less than 9 participate in a pre-draft so that all teams end with 9 regulars before the real draft takes place. From there, only players that were owned in the preceding season and NOT protected can be drafted. Finally, we move on to normal draft, which will include the players actually drafted by NHL teams for 2023.

After a small on the fly retooling the year before, I didn’t do very well last season. I do, however, have 5 skaters I feel are safe to protect: Nathan Mackinnon, Kyle Connor, Sebastian Aho, Miro Heiskanen and Mikael Sergachev.

After them, I feel there is a pretty big drop off, with options being players who are either not likely to produce well, in danger of age-related decline, or are band-aid boys: Jared McCann, Sam Reinhart, Elias Lindholm, Jonathan Marchessault, Victor Arvidsson, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brad Marchand, Claude Giroux, Joe Pavelski, Nick Schmaltz, Dmitri Orlov. I also have Juuse Saros in goal; but unless he’s traded, I don’t see protecting him because I fear Nashville, even with a new coach, is not on an upward trend and not many other teams in my league are likely to keep a goalie.

My first question is would you take the gamble of protecting only 5 of those players, with the risk of someone else also not protecting their 9 players and picking one of mine? In the past, about 3 or 4 of the GMs will only protect 8, but most protect the full 9. So it could be that I can get back most of my guys via the pre-draft if I don't protect them.

Do you feel that some of those players listed here are worth that gamble? I’m wavering on Marchand, Tarasenko and McCann, but I feel there could be better/safer players available.

For context, here are some of the players which, by analyzing other teams, I expect to see available in the pre-draft: Tyson Barrie, K'Andre Miller, Devon Toews, Justin Faulk, Hampus Lindholm, Jeff Petry, Filip Hronek, Charlie McAvoy, Drew Doughty, Kris Letang and Jakub Chychrun at defense and Travis Konecny, Jeff Skinner, Kevin Fiala, Pavel Buchnevich, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Drake Batherson, Jordan Kyrou, Martin Necas, Alex Debrincat, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jamie Benn, Anze Kopitar, Brock Nelson, Tyler Toffoli, Mats Zuccarello, Adrian Kempe, Patrick Kane, Robert Thomas, and Brandon Hagel at forward.

My second question relates to my “rookie” protection list. We can protect a maximum of 12, and I have 16 on my team, meaning I must drop 4. Our 200 games rule is interesting in that there’s an added value to a “rookie” that will remain so for more than next season (i.e., still has more than 82 games before he reaches 200).

The rookies I can protect who'll likely be rookies for only next season are Matt Boldy, Dawson Mercer, Taylor Raddysh, Mason Marchment, Rasmus Sandin and Cole Caufield. My list of rookies who'd fall into the two season camp are Shane Pinto, Quinton Byfield, Jake Neighbours, William Eklund, Jake Sanderson, Calen Addison, Brendan Guhle, Nils Lundkvist, Jamie Drysdale and Lane Hutson. I’m leaning towards dropping Marchment, Neighbours, Lundkvist, and am stumped for my 4th. I'm tired of waiting for Eklund, not convinced Sandin is in a good spot behind Carlson, and am worried Addison won't ever get the confidence of his coach, plus that Pinto will never be more than a 3rd line center. Which 4 rookies would you chose to drop?

Let me start with the rookies first. I'm dropping Marchment without much hesitation. Dallas is a very balanced team, which is good in that Marchment will get chances on a decent line. But that was the case this past season and he disappointed. With you only having him one more year as a rookie I feel he's a safe non-keep. I also don't like how Lundkvist has progressed, or, more appropriately, not done so. When he came to Dallas there was talk of him and Heiskanen perhaps manning PP1 together as a left and right shot, but the way Lundkvist played you could see why the Rangers were willing to part with him. I think he might figure things out; however, in Dallas I don't see him reaching more than 30-35 points within the next two seasons. Neighbours I also agree on, as like Dallas the Blues run a balanced offense; but I think Neighbours vanished after turning heads early. He doesn't shoot much either and might struggle to find a regular spot in the line-up.

I agree that after those three it's a tougher call. Hutson concerns me in that although he shined in college he is really small at 5'8''. And from 2000-2023, just eight d-men who were 5'9'' or shorter played 100+ cumulative games, with Torey Krug being the only one who averaged even a point per every other game. Yes not every successful d-man has to be 6'2'' and 220; but Hutson is so diminutive I worry about his ability to insert himself into the everyday line-up and be impactful.

One also has to wonder if Raddysh did as well as he did in 2022-23 because there were no other options, or if in fact he's actually skilled. He's not as young as one would think, and one Chicago improves he could be elbowed out of the picture, plus you only get him for next season. But as for the actual drop I'm going with Pinto. Even with Josh Norris out of the picture Pinto didn't exactly light it up, and at times was put onto the third line, ceding the second unit to Ridly Greig. Even though you'd get Pinto for two seasons, I feel that he will struggle to get decent ice time and perhaps not even a regular PP shift. He's my fourth rookie drop.

Onto your main roster. I would not protect only five. For starters, you have to keep Marchand after what he showed in the playoffs. But looking at the others who might be available in the pre-draft, maybe you do stop at six keepers, as I think there is a case to be made that three of the players presumed to be available will be at least as good as those you could keep.

Which three would I personally target via the redraft? Zuccarello, who's stapled to Kirill Kaprizov and who, due to his playing style and frame, should be able to remain productive for several more seasons. I also like the prospects of DeBrincat rebounding, whether on Ottawa, which should have among the best top sixes in the entire league, or elsewhere. McAvoy is tempting too, as I think he will ultimately reclaim the PP1 spot, and look how well he did even without it. He's the real deal. Do you want to keep three D though? If not, then the next choice is tough and would boil down to Buchnevich, Fiala, Skinner, and Stone. If Stone hadn't become so injury-prone, I'd go with him; but as it is I think he's too risky. Skinner is doing great; however, if he was to falter there are a long line of Sabre youngsters ready willing and able to claim his top line spot. So I think it comes down to Fiala and Buchcnevich, and I'm going Buchnevich, since as I said above he's yet to not finish a season with a better scoring rate that his prior campaign, and he did so in 2022-23 even though he had an injury.

I would keep Mackinnon, Connor, Aho, Heiskanen, Sergachev and Marchand, and aim for Zuccarello, DeBrincat and McAvoy in the redraft, unless you feel that three D would be too many to carry, in which case I'd swap in Buchnevich for McAvoy. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Eric)

I’m in a 12 team, keep 6 league with starting rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, 4 bench spots and 2 IR+ and the following scoring: G=3, A=2, +/- = 0.25, PIM= 0.5, PPG = 1, PPA= 0.5, SHG=1, SHA=0.5, GWG=1, SOG=0.5, FW=0.1, FL=-0.05, Hit=0.5, BLK=0.75; GS=2, W=3, L=-2, GA=-1, Saves=0.275, SHO= 4.

My team was competitive for a while and I decided to go all-in early and traded my top picks. But I ran into injury trouble, panicked, and ended up failing miserably, making the upcoming season a difficult one with no top picks and a current roster comprised of older but productive players, some decent depth, and a fair sprinkling of major disappointments: Jamie Benn, Nico Hischier, Evander Kane, Brad Marchand, Alex Tuch, David Pastrnak, Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse, John Carlson, Justin Faulk, Seth Jones, Jacob Markstrom, Tristan Jarry, Jusse Saros

Usually with keepers I stay away from positions with a lot of depth, like C and LW. Although goalies are coveted come draft day, I also am not in favor of using valuable keeper spots on them, although I admit some of that might be bias after I kept Jacob Markstrom for last season. I'm also not generally in favor of too many players from one team unless it's stacking on a great line or duo.

I'd originally intended to keep Pasta, Tuch, Kane, Carlson, Nurse and Saros. Is Kane worth the risk over Marchand or another D? Is Bouchard a better keeper than Nurse at this point? Should I abandon goalies altogether and just try and load up on positions of scarcity by going 4D and 2RW? Is Tuch even worth keeping? Are 3 Oilers too many? Unfortunately we do not have off-season trades and my first pick will be the 31st overall, so any redrafting will be strictly a “Maybe” in terms of player availability.

Let's start with your goalie dilemma. These are as close to perfect categories for Saros, a high volume proven workhorse starter, as I can imagine. And Nashville should be improved with Andrew Brunette as new head coach, leading to fewer losses and more wins. It is true that GA, which is where Saros has had some struggles, is a penalized category; however, the volume provided by wins and saves more than adequately makes up for it. Yes, there are only six keepers; however, I think he's one that needs to make the cut, especially since you're uncertain about the last couple.

As for the other keepers, Pasta is the only no brainer. But room likely needs to be made for Bouchard, who was as elite as they come in the last quarter of the season and even better in the playoffs. Does he replace Nurse? Tough to say; Nurse is valuable on his own, and decent insurance if Bouchard somehow was to get hurt. As for Kane, I'm worried he's checked out again. And we know you don't just get points on Edmonton for showing up, otherwise Jesse Puljujarvi would've been a star and Kailer Yamamoto would be better. Kane has a nice contract so he doesn't have to earn his paycheck, while Zach Hyman looks to have become the go-to forward after the trio of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Kane seems like perfect trade bait, to be packaged with Tuch, who I worry about due to injury issues and the footsteps of Sabre youngsters. Try to get a guy like J.T. Miller for them, as Miller is a monster in this format and finished with 26 points in 20 games.

So I'm keeping Saros, Pasta, Bouchard, Nurse, and the player obtained for Kane and Tuch. Who else? I think Marchand, as his regular season was a disappointment for sure but he showed in the playoffs he still has gas in the tank. I realize you said you're not a fan of keeping players on the same team unless there are stacking possibilities, which none of these four give you; but Boston was historically great last season and keeping Oilers, Kane notwithstanding, is always a good idea. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Christopher)

I'm in 12 team, keep 9 roto league with categories of Forward G, Forwards A, Defensemen G, Defensemen A, PPG, PPA, HIT+BLK, +/-, SV%, Goalie Wins (L=0, OTL=1, W=2, SO=3) all weighted evenly. Teams consist of 11F, 7D, 3G, 5 Bench and up to 10 farm and 10 IR. There is a cap of $252 for the auction draft and a hard cap of $352 during the season. Once you win a player in auction they are on an "A" contract. If you keep him, he becomes a "B" player. There's no difference in cap hit between A or B. But keeping a B player again makes him a C player and raises his salary $10. Keep him again and he's a D player, with another $10 salary raise, etc. There are also Z contracts, which were FAs signed after the trade deadline and are not keepable. Players can be traded in the off-season, usually in a limited window before the season starts (2 weeks or so). I try to make a lot of trades because I feel it's always possible to improve, but most other managers are more hesitant to do so.

My players, with their contract status from last season denoted in parentheses, are Aleksander Barkov (C$39), Alex Debrincat (C$19), Garnet Hathaway (A$1), Jack Hughes (B$1), Clayton Keller (A$12), Jordan Kyrou (B$1), Timo Meier (B$1), Artemi Panarin (A$40), Tage Thompson (B$7), Brady Tkachuk (A$42), Troy Terry (B$3), Gabriel Landeskog (A$18), Nick Schmaltz (A$6), Samuel Girard (Z$6), Seth Jones (A$12), Dougie Hamilton (A$25) Morgan Reilly (A$38), Brandon Montour (A$11) Jani Hakanpaa (A$1), Gustav Forsling (B$3), Sean Durzi (B$1), J.J. Moser (A$1), Luke Schenn (A$3) Arber Xhekaj (A$2), Alexandar Georgiev (A$32), Tristan Jarry (A$28), Vitek Vanecek (B$2), Pheonix Copley (A$8), Scott Wedgewood (A$1).

Obviously the total player count is higher than the 21 roster spots. But that was because several of my players were on injured reserve when the season ended so technically I still have them and can keep them if I want. Of note, I also have Luke Hughes on the farm.

This is who I think I should keep: Jack Hughes, Vanecek, Hamilton, Montour, Kyrou, Meier, Thompson, Keller, and Georgiev. Keeping in mind their current contracts haven’t rolled over yet, the total cap hit for these 9 would be $142, leaving me $110 to draft a team. I’m just not confident in $110, plus what I have, panning out into a clear contender. Is Jones going to skyrocket playing with Bedard? Is Georgiev even worth keeping at that price? Is Brady ready for his 100+ point season like his brother? Should I only keep 6 or 7 players?

You would have $110 to spend for 12 spots, or just over $9 per player, versus just under $16 per player for who you're retaining. Looking at the prices of the players from last season, I can see how you'd be at least a bit concerned about your draft budget.

But who are the expensive pieces with whom you might be able to do without? Really only Hamilton and Georgiev. I think Hamilton is superb; but only once in his career has he played two great seasons in a row, and Luke Hughes does loom. Georgiev is amazing in your league, as he will pile on wins. Given what Jarry went for last season, Georgiev seems to be priced right to keep. The Jones keep is tempting, but not when you have +/- as a category, as even if Connor Bedard is amazing the team stands to be pretty bad in terms of goal differential. Keeping Jones over Hamilton would net you an average of only an extra $1 to spend on your other players, which doesn't really move the needle.

Tkachuk is not a keep here, especially without PIM and SOG. You already have Meier at nearly a quarter of the price. Let Tkachuk go – he's a trap keep. Moser has some bit of lure; however, he probably can be redrafted for only a couple of dollars more, and he cannot supplant Hamilton or Montour.

The only other question mark is Vanecek at $12. If the playoffs hadn't unfolded as they did, he would seem like a no brainer keep. But is he even the #1A in New Jersey anymore? His contract suggests it will be him who gets first crack at the net, although it wasn't just a case of Vanacek slowing when it came time for the playoffs, as his entire second half was a step down. Still, at $12, not keeping him would be only a small savings, such that I think you role the dice.

So in the end I agree with your keepers 100%. Maybe you're overestimating how financially constrained you'll be at the draft, although you'll have two goalies already on the books and that seems like a huge cost sink position. And looking at the price that had to be paid for a guy like Panarin, I feel like other teams will either be facing a situation where they don't have great keepers but more to spend, or the opposite. I feel like you'll be fine – just make wise low money choices at the draft. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.

2 Comments

  1. Karl 2023-06-28 at 11:20

    So far- if people have listened to your kuzmenko ramblings all that happened was that they missed out on a guy who scored a shade under a point per game with a shade under 40 goals… for absolutely free. He was a 40 goal scorer you could have had off waivers. On the record you advised- enthusiastically- against that.

    Now your advice is to cut or sell low in a guy who scored 40 and 70+ (in his first year) cause you FEEL like he’s lazy and are unhappy about how many of his goals were tip ins (its a measurable skill- ask johan franzen).

    Now i am not adamant like you are BUT I think anyone out there should think long and hard before they cut a guy scoring at this rate whose attached at the hip to am emergent superstar. The comparison was (and always has been) panar9n or panarin-lite depending on who you want to listen to and sof ar the results reflect that. He passes the “eye test” woth flying colors and if you ask me his play under tocchet only affirms to me exactly why you SHOULD keep him. Being bumped down for a few shifts to get going is not the end of the world- Touchstone sticks with his “guys” ( see: Kessel phillip)- and the deployment yells me kuzmebko is one of his guys. His goals will go down but there is an argument whereby he maintains or on fact improves his point yotals- this was literally his first year

    And that in fact is the cruc of my whole issue. Be adamant- plant your flag- go for it! But this site was built and still succeeds based on the work of guys who aren’t only knowledgable and passionate but also humble and pragmatic as well. Anyone reading thos- especially a new owner will be selling him off for scraps and… why?? Cause you decided you think he MIGHT fail? At least you dripped the IPP nonsense and you had the tact not to keep hqrping on his nationality but at the end of the day the data is still flimsy as all heck and you’re not even stating that there IS in fact a counter argument. Writers on this site take big risks all the time without being cocky about it.

    The simple fact is that you COULD be wrong and it’d be nice for new fantasy GMs if you were capable of telling them that- Dobber does it all the time. I COULD be wrong but at least I’m willing to say that- this was never about what Kizmenko could actually do in the league- its how you’re framing it.

    You do you but if any other writer on here was advising to cut a 40 goal scorer I think they’d make sure they advise caution as well and even let their readers know that “hey I’m out on a limb here”. There are many players i am not partial too and id advise fading them but I’ll be the first to admit I could be wrong (maybe Robert Thomas is a star!)- and id have the werewothal to advise that you should expect an extremely solid return.

    Kuzm3nko CAN pan out regardless of one writers personal campaign against that. I’m not going to promise he will but if you just cut him because of… emotions? You’re doing yourself a disservice. /endrant

    • Dobber 2023-06-28 at 13:46

      Rick literally puts out two articles each year to go over what he got wrong. Kuzmenko could pan out, but the metrics point to a big ‘no’. I’m firmly in the ‘sell’ camp, but I’m open to him improving the other areas of his game and becoming a star, too.

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