Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

We've gone from Vegas winning the Stanley Cup to already having had the Entry Draft and the start of free agency, all within just a couple of weeks. And although some might think they can safely put fantasy hockey on the backburner for a while, now is the time when those who win championships are doing their homework to prepare for the upcoming season. Part of that consists of digging deeply enough to determine when season-long stats don't tell the true story for a player. That's the case with two of the three skaters (Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Miller, and Jake Guentzel) being covered today, as one of them was too hot for 2022-23, another too cold, while only one played at the level he should have. As usual, your job is to rely on your fantasy instincts to guess who falls into which category. Lock in your answers and read below to find out how well you scored.

Nathan MacKinnon (71 GP, 42G, 69A, 366 SOG, 22:19 TOI, 34 PPPts, 4:05 PP, 75.7% PP%)

MacKinnon's career has since shown he was well deserving of being the first overall pick back in 2013, as although it took until 2017-18 for him to fully break out, his lowest scoring rate since that season has been 99, and prior to 2022-23 he'd been at 111 three seasons in a row. But last season saw him make another leap, this time to a 128 point pace. Is he really that amazing, or did all the dots happen to connect? In short, Mac is still among the best of the best; but those of you who are expecting a repeat of his 2022-23 performance should be prepared to be disappointed.

Yes, MacKinnon will have just turned 28 when 2023-24 begins; but 2023-24 will mark his 11th season, meaning he's got a good bit of mileage. But you're likely saying that for many of those seasons the Avs struggled, so he doesn't have the same issue of many playoff games like those who've been on perennial top teams. That's not an incorrect statement. What's also true, however, is he has become a Band-Aid Boy, having missed an average of nine games per season over the past four campaigns. Are we at the stage where the toll of those injuries could mount? I'd say yes. Or at least it has to begin to creep into our minds.

MacKinnon also played 22:19 per game last season, which, if it sounds high, is because it is, marking one of the 30 highest season-long TOIs for any center dating back to 2000-01. And if you think that more is better, think again, as, of the rest, other than Connor McDavid only Joe Sakic in 2000-01 finished with a scoring pace within even ten of MacKinnon's. So do not get fooled into thinking his ice time ensures he can keep up the pace he set in 2022-23.

MacKinnon also set a career best in SOG per game with a rate of 5.2. This after a rate which had consistently been between 4.3 and 4.6 per game since his big breakout. And despite his uptick in SOG rate, his SH% rose too, from 10.0 for his career prior to 2022-23, to 11.5% for the 2022-23 season. That might not sound like much difference, but it actually meant he had six more goals than he should've based on his prior career rate and that's assuming he could keep up the same SOG rate, which is questionable.

MacKinnon also was bolstered by an unsustainably strong Q4. Yes, he's historically been a strong finisher, having posted 35 points in 25 games to end 2021-22; however, 38 points in 22 games for Q4 of 2022-23 is too high, even for him. He had 13 PPPts and tallied 18 goals on 106 SOG. If we look at just Q1-Q3, his scoring rate was 122. So we're chipping away at Mac's scoring rate, first with his unsustainably high SH%, now this.

As for his other metrics, Mac's IPP was high, but not by much, and it was offset by a lower than usual PP IPP. But his Secondary Assist rate marked a four year high. It's also notable that Mac's offensive zone starting percentage was the second highest of his career, although in this case as well it wasn't too much higher than his what's his norm. Still, both of these factors, alone and certainly in combination, likely tacked on points he wouldn't normally have received.

What do player comparables tell us? Dating back to 1980, only three other centers (Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Steve Yzerman) had, by age 27, at least two seasons with 4.2+ SOG and 1.2+ point per game, with MacKinnon atop the list with five, tied with Gretzky. The issue is all three had bigger numbers earlier than Mac. Still, looking at Yzerman, he had 82 points in 58 games at age 28, but never again averaged better than 100 points. If a parallel is to be drawn between any of these three and MacKinnon, I'd argue it should be Yzerman, which is not a good sign.

MacKinnon owners who are afraid his jump in scoring wasn't sustainable, you're definitely onto something. There are no glaring aspects of Mac's 2022-23 that stand out in a negative way; it's just a lot of little things which contradict that, at age 27, that he suddenly – and sustainably – entered a new scoring echelon. Yes, since Gabriel Landeskog has been out Mac seems to have sensed a need to carry more of the scoring load, and we know Landy won't be in the line-up for 2023-24. But in the end I think it's more likely Mac's 2022-23 was TOO HOT, and he gets a rating of 9.00, as all the small boosts he got likely will vanish, dropping him back to familiar 110-115 point scoring. Still amazing, just not as amazing.

J.T. Miller (81 GP, 32G, 51A, 233 SOG, 20:41 TOI, 31 PPPts, 3:59 PP, 73.0% PP%)

After being picked 15th overall in 2011, Miller was in the NHL by 2012-13 and all he did was see his scoring rate increase for the next five straight seasons, although that only led him to a rate of 57, which wasn't enough to keep him on Broadway, as he finished that campaign with the Bolts. He played one full season there then landed in Vancouver where his impact was instant, scoring at an 86 point pace. He gave a bit back the following season but then rose all the way to 101 point pace in 2021-22, parlaying that into a huge payday. As many feared, however, he came back to earth somewhat for 2022-23, barely topping the point per game mark. Is Miller simply an 80-85 point player, or is it realistic to think he has it in him to do better again? Signs point to the latter.

Despite losing 23 seconds per game of ice time, Miller gained 40 man advantage seconds, and, in doing so, also beneficially saw his PK duty shrink from 2021-22. One might ask why, if such circumstances existed, did he see his scoring rate go down? Pretty simple – in the first half of the season he skated alongside Bo Horvat. In the second half of 2021-22, when Miller had an amazing 63 points in 43 games, Horvat was missing from the equation, just as he was when Miller had 44 points in 38 games to close 2022-23. And although we can't be certain who Miller's linemates will be for 2023-24, we know Horvat won't be one of them.

Let's also not discount that Miller was able to achieve a career best in SOG per game yet still maintained his career SH% rate. And he has room for more SOG in the normal course, as his SOG/60 was 8.0, which, although also a career high, ranked him outside of the top 125 of all forwards who played in at least half their team's games. And his progression in this area has been impressive, going from 5.7/60 in 2020-21, to 7.3 in 2021-22, to 8.0 in 2022-23. So it stands to reason he'll make further gains and, with that, achieve better scoring.

If there was one glaring issue with Miller's scoring in his huge 2021-22 season, it was his nearly 50% rate of secondary assists. In 2022-23, however, that rate plummeted to 27.5%, meaning that Miller had 69 goals or primary assists. For 2022-23, only three players had both a higher scoring rate and primary points percentage than Miller, namely Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl and Kirill Kaprizov, each of whom has scored 100+ points in one of the past two seasons. In other words, this puts him in fine company and suggests he has more scoring gains that can occur organically.

There's also Miller's IPPs, notably his PP IPP being only 63.3% after being 76.0% and 72.0% over the prior two seasons. And this occurred despite Miller potting a career best 11 PPGs. So here too the secondary assist factor likely held him back, as Miller had only 20 total PP assists. And looking at the 17 forwards who had more PPPts than Miller's 31 in 2022-23, just four had fewer PP assists, and none had fewer PPPts/60 PP minutes than him, with only one having a lower PP IPP. I suppose you might be looking at this and wondering whether it might mean less PP time for Miller. Not a chance, as his PP minutes were unwavering even as he posted just 18 PPPts in his last 59 games. Signs point to him rounding back into the form that saw him post 38 PPPts in 80 games in 2021-22, as Vancouver's PP isn't going to get any worse and Miller's minutes not any fewer.

Miller also saw his OZ% drop to 50.2%, his lowest rate since he became a Canuck, and a good bit below his prior three season average of 57.1%. And despite still scoring 32 goals, Miller hit six combined posts and crossbars, meaning the iron was unsustainably unkind. So there are two metrics which figure to be less negatively impactful on his scoring rate for the 2023-24 season.

Looking at the other side of the coin, it is true that Miller had a whopping nine SHP, which, to put things in perspective, tied with teammate Elias Pettersson but was more than double the next highest total and equal to Miller's career total coming into 2022-23. Add to that six empty net points, and an argument could me made that Miller's scoring was unsustainably boosted in these areas. While I agree that it would be a tall order to reach that same level of SHPs again, more than half the forwards who had a higher ice time per game average than him also had more empty net points. And the fact is Miller is a very complete player, so he should continue to see points in these areas; so even if the total is fewer in 2023-24, it's more likely that the gains he stands to make will outpace any reductions in these areas.

When Miller had a career best in 2021-22, punctuated by 63 points in his last 43 games, many thought it was him doing his best to land a big paycheck. And sure enough he did. But rather than ease off the gas pedal, Miller played well in 2022-23 despite being put onto a line with Bo Horvat for half the season, where Miller wasn't productive. And areas like secondary assists, PP IPP, OZ% and a red hot Q4 all point to more than enough organic gains for Miller in 2023-24 to offset losses in SHP and/or ENP. As such Miller's 2022-23 was TOO COLD and he gets a rating of 3.25 as I'd expect him to be at or above 90 points.

Jake Guentzel (78 GP, 36G, 37A, 243 SOG, 20:07 TOI, 23 PPPts, 3:54 PP, 69.8% PP%)

After establishing arguably the best chemistry with Sidney Crosby of any winger during Crosby's illustrious career, Guentzel rose to heights that saw him score at a 90+ point rate in two of the past three seasons. But for 2022-23, Guentzel dipped below the point per game mark for the first time since 2018-19. Was this just a one season aberration? Most likely no, as it seems like this will be the norm for Guentzel on a going forward basis.

Guentzel's SOG rate was down from 2021-22, and lower than it was in either of his two best seasons. I don't see that as a coincidence, but rather a sign that Guentzel has to shoot more to score more. Also concerning is despite shooting less Guentzel saw his SH% downtick. And who led the entire league in empty net goals, with seven (out of 36 in total)? None other than Guentzel.  Yes, he had six a season ago; but in 20212-22 he also had four more goals in two fewer games so the benefit was less impactful.

What was also missing for Guentzel versus 2021-22 was explosiveness, as for 2022-23 his points per quarter ranged from one more to three less than his games per quarter, while in 2021-22 he had a quarter with 19 points in 11 games. And Guentzel had a mere three games with three points in 2022-23, and none with more. Again, contrast this to 2021-22, when he had six games with 3+ points, two of which saw him post four. It seems like Guentzel simply is no longer a threat to have as many big games or as many sustained scoring streaks. And although the consistency is still there, that won't elevate him above what he did in 2022-23.

On the plus side Guentzel had a mere 11 secondary assists, versus 26 that were primary. No question that is a great rate, although as a goal scorer it should be expected to be lower; so seeing it was higher in 2021-22 (21 secondary versus only 23 primary) does further explain Guentzel's better production in that season versus 2022-23, and calls into question whether it can be repeated at this point in Guentzel's career.

Guentzel also is not great on the PP, with barely more than a 50% IPP last season or for 2021-22. In fact, Guentzel logged the 11th most cumulative PP minutes of any forward over the past two seasons. Although his cumulative combined 45 PPPts sounds quite good in a vacuum, it actually ranks him tied for 37th in PPPts. And with the exception of Brady Tkachuk, every one of the ten who were ahead of him in PP minutes had 20% more PPPts over that two-year stretch. So despite skating on PP1 with two of the best playmakers in the game and ranking 15th in total goals with 76 over that same two season stretch, Guentzel managed just 18 PPGs, putting him tied for 18th in that area. I'd go so far as to say that Guentzel is a PP drag given all his minutes and who he lines up alongside. And with this having affected him not only this season but also his much better 2021-22 campaign, I fear it's an issue that won't be solved, and, in turn, will continue to hold down his scoring like it did in 2022-23.

What about other metrics for Guentzel? His offensive zone starting percentage has been steady the past three seasons, so that isn't a factor in his performance, although at over 62% there is concern in that it doesn't have room to rise but could drop, especially if Pittsburgh becomes a less potent offensive team. Guentzel's 2022-23 overall IPP was a career low at 60.2%, having never been previously below 66.3%. But his three lowest percentages have come in the last three seasons, which suggests he is no longer as dialed into the offense as he once was.

There is no denying that Guentzel both has talent and is in an enviable situation due to taking the ice nearly all the time with Sidney Crosby. But the problem is Crosby is starting to slow, which isn't doing Guentzel any favors, nor is what appears to be a pattern emerging of Guentzel failing to produce on the PP in line with the minutes he receives. Add to that his SOG rate dropping and a secondary assist rate for 2021-22 that went a good way toward explaining why Guentzel fared so well that season, and you get the picture of a player who's future looks like it will be similar to what we saw in 2022-23. As such, for 2022-23 Guentzel was JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 6.0.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag has plenty of room for more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.